Johan Santana (SP—Mets) For the second straight year, Johan Santana's season has ended early due to injury. Last season, his elbow was an issue and this season he has a tear in the anterior capsule of his left shoulder. The tear will be surgical repaired, but Santana's rehabilitation time line will really depend on the severity of the tear. Optimistically, he could return by spring training. Less optimistic approach, may put him closer to June or July. Santana will finish the year with 199 innings pitched and an 11-9 record which really doesn't do justice with how well he actually pitched. He wound up with a 2.98 ERA on the season and only had 3 games where he allowed more than four earned runs and only four games that he didn't complete six innings. His home run allowed total was the best since 2002 as he had an HR/9 of 0.72 this year. But for the fourth straight year in a row, his K/9 totals are down and for the fourth straight year in a row the velocity on his fastball is down. Injuries, loss of velocity. Concerning signs for a guy who was once an elite pitcher. For non-keeper leagues, it's safe to say that Santana can be dropped. For keeper leagues, owners will need to monitor the situation to find out how bad the tear in his shoulder really is. More will be revealed once the surgery is performed. Much of Santana's value for next year will be tied into how well he responds to rehab. For now, Santana looks like a risky option for 2011.
Carlos Zambrano (SP—Cubs) We are certainly seeing a new and improved Carlos Zambrano take the mound these days. A kinder, gentler Zambrano...and a different pitcher altogether from the beginning of the season. Zambrano came within one out of a complete game shutout on Friday. He allowed just three hits, walked three and struck out nine. It was Zambrano's 5th win since returning to baseball after anger management therapy. It appears it has worked wonders on his pitching approach as he is more focused then he has been in a long time. And when Big Z is focused, he can be excellent. As a comparison, the first half Zambrano had a 5.66 ERA compared to an ERA of 1.86 in the second half. Even more impressive, Zambrano has only allowed one home run since the All-Star break. Although, he has still struggles with his control, he has batter hitting just .210 off of him the past 30 days and has a LOB% of 85.5%. He's been tough to score upon. He's been in a zone and next season owners should have some renewed confidence in Zambrano. It's doubtful that next season he will be as good as he has been of late, but he should land somewhere in the middle of the first-half Zambrano and the second-half Zambrano of 2010. For now, he is as hot as he has been in a while.
Carlos Lee (OF—Astros) It's been a frustrating year for Carlos Lee owners. Lee has never really got going. Just when it seemed that he would be finally heating up, he cooled off just as quickly. For the season, Lee is batting .243 which is a far cry from the career .288 hitter and the player who has hit .300 or more the past four years. Lee has been able to hit 20 home runs and hopefully with any kind of hot streak could make it to 25. Since the beginning of August he has collected 30 RBI in 37 games and has 82 on the year. 100 is within reach, but he will probably fall short. While Lee has never had a great BHIP, his career norm is .286, this year he has been supremely unlucky with a .237 BHIP. His LD% of 16.1% has a large part to do with that as it's also down 3.8% from his career average. But the other part of the problem is that his plate discipline has been all out of whack as he has swung at pitches out of the strike zone 33.3% of the time. This is almost 10% more than his usually standard. Lee could be a nice bounce back sleeper for next year as he will certainly drop in value for next season. At 34, he should still be able to bring it. Let's hope he does a better job with pitch recognition. A trip to the optometrist may do a world of good this off-season.
Dan Uggla (2B—Marlins) Confession time. I haven't always been a big fan of Dan Uggla. I'm not crazy about the strikeout percentage (26.5%). I'm not crazy about the poor contact rate (73.3%) or the less than average EYE (0.49). I don't care for the high BHIP of .323 in relation to his poor line drive rate of 15.7% which usually signifies that he has been more lucky than good. I don't even like the fact that he swings at pitches out of the strike zone at 23.1%. But this year, I reluctantly drafted him for one of my leagues and I have to say I've kinda warmed up to the guy. Yes, his numbers make me cringe and I still don't have a comfort level with him because of some of the numbers I have mentioned above. But sometimes you gotta take a lucky season (see Jose Bautista). But Uggla to be fair, is a perennial 30 home run hitter and his .279 has been an extremely nice perk this year. In fact, one could make a case for him having the most offensively productive year of any second baseman this year despite all of his shortcomings. For next season I would expect a lower average but other than that, he'll produce similar numbers. And other than Mr. Utley, there aren't a lot of guys at second capable of 30 home runs a year.
Jayson Werth (OF—Phillies) Jayson Werth will be a free agent at the end of this year and he has put together a very solid season. His slash line of .293/.385/.513 with 20 home runs should make him a hot commodity on the free agent market. But be careful not overvalue Werth's worth in next year's draft. First of all, the guy is playing for a big contract and that tends to bring out the best performances. Money will do that to you. But his .358 BHIP with a LD% of 16.6% is a large enough concern to say that the guy is getting ultra-lucky. Also note that Werth will more than likely be moving to a park that is not as hitter friendly as Citizen's Bank simply because they're aren't many parks more hitter friendly than that one. And Werth has really enjoyed the advantages of playing at home as he has hit 14 of his 20 home runs at Citizen's Bank and is hitting .316 overall in Philly. Werth is a solid player, but it wouldn't be shocking to see a drop in production for 2011. Proceed with caution.
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