Delmon Young OF (MIN) - I haven't lost faith in Young despite his slow start. In fact, I'm encouraged last year was not a fluke. Young is getting loft on his swing (38.8FB%), which is very important for his power. Last season Young's 39.8 FB% (career mark of 33.4) led to an increase in homers and ISO. Also, Young's EYE is taking a big step forward for the second straight season (.13/.35/.56). Key to the improvement in EYE has been Young's increasing walk percentages (2.9/4.6/7.9). Another key to Young's breakout last year was much fewer swinging strikes. Young made contact on 82.4% of the pitches he swung at last year (previously was right around 75% each year), and this season that number is being repeated (82.9%). On top of that, Young is chasing pitches a career low 31.5% of the time. By holding his strides in FB% and contact rate while improving his BB rate and chase percentage, Young has me believing the power is coming.
Derek Jeter SS (NYY) - The other day Joseph Hettler commented on Derek Jeter's pathetic early power numbers and how they screamed danger by astutely pointing out Jeter's age and sharp downturn in ISO last season and even more so this season. Today, I'm going to take a closer look at why Jeter's ISO is so low and why this is bad news for those hoping for a turnaround. The low ISO (.026) so far this season has less to do with a small sample size and more to do with some disturbing trends in the type of contact Jeter is making. Both his LD% and FB% are declining for the second straight season: 20.3%/16.1/11.1 and 22.7/18.2/15.3 respectively in 2009/10/11. Meanwhile, Jeter's already high GB% has been skyrocketing: 57%/65.7/73.6. It's really no surprise Jeter's ISO is so low when you take note of how few line drives and fly balls he hits as hitting ground ball after ground ball just does not lend itself towards extra base hits. Not only does the lack of extra base hits (slugging just .269) cut down Jeter's runs scored and RBI percentages, they cut into his average too. Currently, Jeter has a .264 singles average, which is right in line with the .265 singles average he posted last season. Given Jeter's current LD% (11.1), it's unlikely this will rise, and thus his .259 batting average is also unlikely to rise.
Jack Hannahan 3B (CLE) - Jack Hannahan had himself a night going 3-4 with 2 homers. He now has 4 homers on the season and is hitting .286. Still, he doesn't belong on your fantasy team except in AL only leagues. Hannahan is career .226/.312/.351 hitter, which makes me inclined to write off the hot start. A closer look reveals little has changed in Hannahan's peripherals, but he is experiencing some good fortune. For starters, after last night Hannahan had a HR/FB% of 21%. His career mark, prior to last night, was 6.6% in 1046 plate appearances. Also, Hannahan's current singles average is .256; his career singles average is .224. Once Hannahan's HR/FB% and singles average normalize, he'll see a huge dip in his all-around offensive numbers, and you'll be glad you let someone else grab him off the waiver wire.
Corey Patterson OF (TOR) - Patterson went 2-5 with 2 runs scored last night. Some may be tempted to pick up Patterson as he is in a good position right now: hitting in front of Jose Bautista/Adam Lind and on a team that has been very aggressive on the basepaths. This is where fantasy owners have to be disciplined though and remember that skill trumps opportunity, and Patterson has not shown the ability to be successful. He's a speed guy who doesn't take many walks (career 4.6 BB%) and fails to make up for it with an increased contact rate (career 77.5%). Plus, the opportunity may not last long as Patterson could be the odd man out when Rajai Davis returns, which is expected to happen sometime this week.
Justin Masterson SP (CLE) - Masterson improved to 5-0 after holding the Royals to 3 ER in 6.2 IP last night. His ERA now sits at 2.18. Count me as someone who has Masterson in the sell high group. For starters, Masterson had just 12 quality starts last season in 29 starts (41%), which makes me skeptical he'll keep winning games anywhere near his current rate. Secondly, Masterson entered last night's ballgame with a BABIP .45 points below his career average and LOB% 13.2 percentage points above his career average. Those numbers are not sustainable. Plus, Masterson has given up just 1 HR in 33 innings (.27 per 9 IP) after giving up about triple that rate the rest of his career. Masterson's increased GB% is playing a role in that but so is a fortunate HR/FB%.
Zach Britton SP (BAL) - In seasonal formats, I suggest selling high on Britton. He entered last night with a .257 BABIP and 77.2 LOB%, which are unsustainable. Judging from last night's line, regression is yet to hit Britton in the BABIP and LOB% departments as he was able to hold the Red Sox to just 1 run and 5 hits over 6 innings despite a K:BB ratio on the evening of 2:2. Britton's early K/BB ration is now an unimpressive 1.58, and his K/9 of 5.40 suggests he's not going to be dominant this season as does his chase rate of 24.3% (league average is 28%). Sure, Britton is excelling at getting ground balls (56.7%), but in a one year league I'm still selling high based upon his hot start and prospect status. Would not be surprised at all to see that final ERA at or above 4.00.
