Daisuke Matsuzaka SP (BOS) – Despite Daisuke’s successful Patriot’s Day start, I remain very skeptical and am even dropping him in some deeper leagues after delving into some of his swing data. Here are some very disturbing numbers. First of all, opponents are chasing Daisuke’s pitches outside of the strike zone just 18.7% of the time, down ten percentage points from last year. Secondly, the amount of swinging strikes that Daisuke generates continues to fall. Here are his swinging strike percentages from 2007-2011: 10.6/9.8/8.3/7.8/5.6. Thirdly, and perhaps most disturbingly, not a single hitter has swung and missed at a Daisuke pitch inside of the strike zone. Yes, it’s early, but this data scares me completely away from Daisuke. It all indicates that we should expect a career low in K rate for Daisuke, and probably by a lot. Considering missing bats is Daisuke’s only skill (36.3 GB% career and lower in recent years – 28.6 this season, career 4.26 BB/9), it’s extremely concerning.
Alexi Casilla SS (MIN) – Casilla posted another 0fer last night to drop his batting average all the way down to .128. I was determined to write about how Casilla owners, as I am myself, should hang in there as his .100 singles average is due to normalize and should key a turnaround. However, a closer look at Casilla’s peripherals indicate a legitimate cause for concern. His ISO is down from last season: .118 to .056. His EYE is also way down: .76 to .14. And while Casilla’s current singles average is a bit unlucky, his depressed LD% of just 10.7% really isn’t helping matters. With SS being so weak, I’m hanging on to Casilla in some deeper leagues, but he’s really struggling right now and could lose some playing time if he doesn’t turn things around in a hurry.
Mark Trumbo 1B (LAA) – Trumbo had a big night as he doubled and homered to raise his average to .286. Despite Trumbo’s hot start (3 homers, 9 RBI, 9 RS), I don’t think he gets much playing time when Kendrys Morales returns, assuming Morales can play first base upon return. My reasoning is twofold. First of all, Mike Scioscia loves defense. So, if he plays Trumbo, it means he sits Bourjos, which results in Abreu playing the outfield and one of Wells/Hunter moving to CF. That’s a big defensive downgrade. Secondly, while Trumbo definitely has power, I think his offense trails off as I doubt his current production will be sustainable given his atrocious .15 EYE. Trumbo currently has an absurdly high chase rate of 47.1%, which shows in his 3.3 walk rate. If Trumbo keeps chasing like that, it’s unlikely he’ll run into very many good pitches to drive; his power will be wasted as he continues to swing at pitcher’s pitches.
Matt Wieters C (BAL) – Last night Wieters went 2-3 with 3 runs scored and 4 RBI’s. Despite that only raising Wieters’ average to .239, there are signs of a possible breakout here. Through 13 games, Wieters’ ISO sat at .186 (a career best) as did his HR/FB% (13.3%). This may be a result of Wieters becoming more comfortable and aggressive at the plate. While his EYE of .50 is identical to last season, both Wieters’ BB% and K% have dropped, which backs up the theory that he has been more aggressive. This can be a sign that a player is going to post increased power numbers. Of course, this could be the result of a small sample size, but considering Wieters’ talent and past billing as a top prospect, I’d try and buy low from an owner who is hopefully concerned over the low batting average (which is a result of a low BABIP more than anything else).
Bruce Chen SP (KC) – Bruce Chen improved to 3-0 and now has a low ERA of 2.42 after holding the Indians to just 2 ER over 7 IP last night. Despite Chen’s hot start, he’s not worth owning in most leagues. There are some obvious signs that Chen’s run of good starts is going to come to a screeching halt soon. While he entered last night’s start with a 2.37 ERA, his FIP sat at 4.58 and his xFIP at 4.55. Basically, Chen has been more lucky than good. After three starts, he had a BABIP 45 points below his career average, HR/FB% 4 percentage points below his career average and LOB% 15.5 percentage points above his career average. These numbers are obviously unsustainable, and once regression hits Chen that ERA will rise to 4.50+.
