AL Player Daily Notes - April 7, 2011
AL Quick Pitch: Carlos Quentin looks like his old 2009 self. Let’s hope he can stay healthy. Joakim Soria got lit-up by the White Sox and was handed his first blown save of the year. He’s still a Top-3 closer in my opinion. Other closers making news around the league are Jordan Walden in Anahaim and Jon Rauch in Toronto. The Red Sox continue to struggle and Saltalamacchia’s .091 average puts him on the hot-seat. Carl Crawford took a step in the right direction and gave fantasy owners a couple of SB last night, but Dice-K wasn’t effective enough to beat the Indians. Some vets show they still have some fantasy value with Derrek Lee going yard and Juan Pierre getting off to a nice start, while the Jeremy Hellickson era has begun in Tampa with 10 K’s posted in last night’s start. Phil Coke will make his first real career start on Saturday and Freddy Garcia will have to wait at least another week to make his first start of 2011. We have a limited schedule today and Yunel Escobar suffered a head injury last night, so be sure to check those lineups in daily leagues.
1. Carlos Quentin (OF - White Sox) - Carlos Quentin’s hot start continued into Wednesday’s game against the Royals. He went 4-for-6 with two doubles, a HR, and 3 RBI. He’s now hitting .500 through the first 5 games with 2 HR and 10 RBI. Quentin, who has had his fair share of injuries, looks healthy once again and it is reminiscent of his big breakout year with the White Sox in 2008 when he banged out 36 HR and post 100 RBI in 130 games. He has never missed less than 31 games in a season, so let’s just hope he can continue to stay healthy. At just 28, he can post 35+ HR once again.
2. Carl Crawford (OF - Red Sox) - It certainly too him long enough. Crawford finally recorded a stolen base (make that 2 stolen bases) in the 5th game of the season. It seems like the whole team has gotten off to a slow start and Crawford is right in the mix. He has yet to record an XBH and already has 6 K’s to his name. Obviously a first week slump is hardly reason to panic and at 29, there’s no reason to belive that 2011 couldn’t still be a career year for him. In 2010, he posted a career-high XBH% of 9.4% and his best AB/HR rate of 31.6. We still have him forecasted with 20 HR / 40 SB this season, but it will be interesting to see if his ISO of .188 in 2010 normalizes to more his career level closer to .150. Fenway will inevitably play a role in his production, but time will tell just how so.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka (SP - Red Sox) - Daisuke is the latest Red Sox pitcher to take a loss after hurling 5.0 IP and allowing 3 ER, 6 hits, and 3 BB. With more control problems, maybe we should change his name to Dice-BB (there’s no way I’m the first one to use that...). Over the last two seasons, his BB% has increased from 10.6% to 11.1% and his BB/9 has remained steady at 4.6 and 4.3. The velocity has remained consistent (avg. fastball around 92 over the last 3 years), so I still see him averaging a K/9 of around 8.3 (his career rate). The whole gyroball mania is over. Any thoughts of ever seeing ace-like stuff out of him is long gone. He’s basically a #4 fantasy SP in mixed leagues at best.
4. Derrek Lee (1B - Orioles) - The 35-year-old Derrek Lee hit his first HR of the season on Wednesday night off of Justin Verlander. After some monstrous fantasy years, injuries and trades have diminished Lee’s fantasy value over the last year or so. In 2010, we saw a big time drop-off in power with an OPS going from .972 in 2009 to .774 in 2010, ISO from .273 to .168, and an XBH% from 11.9% to 8.6%. Everything slowed down in 2010 for Lee except for the K’s which went from 17.7% to 21.4%. Those are huge drops in such a short period of time. That leads me to believe that if he can stay healthy, a move to Camden could result in a decent bounceback year that could get him back into the mid-20’s in HR. Tough to find room for him in mixed leagues at 1B, but maybe as utility and certainly in AL-only.
5. Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C - Red Sox) - The Red Sox have added a little pressure to the catching situation in Boston. SI.com reports that an inside source in the Red Sox organization indicated that Salty has until June to figure things out otherwise they’ll start looking for another option behind the plate. That bat better heat-up quickly. Salty is hitting just .091 (1-for-11) with 5 K’s and just 1 BB. He had a very good spring, hitting .405, 7 XBH, 10 RBI, and a BB/K of 1.0 in 37 AB, so he might just be pressing as the entire Red Sox team seems to be in a slump right now.
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