AL Quick Pitch: Declining power, walk rates, and an incredibly slow start have Kevin Kouzmanoff falling out of AL-only consideration. Some unconventional considerations with Alcides Escobar and Jhonny Peralta. Can Josh Willingham strike out anymore? His batting EYE is getting off to a bad start after a solid 0.78 in 2010. Manny should be back in the lineup today. Is this the year for Howie Kendrick, because it certainly looks like it after the first week of the year. Brennan Boesch is off to another hot start, but I think I know how that story ends. Some promising rehab starts for Brandon Morrow and Grady Sizemore have fantasy owners looking forward to May. And which AJ Burnett will we see for the remainder of the season - the one from his last two starts or the 2010 one? I’m high on the Gordon Beckham bandwagon this year and think 20 HR potential is very possible, especially at U.S. Cellular.
Kevin Kouzmanoff (3B - A’s) - Its amazing how quickly a hot spring training can turn into a cold slump. The Kouz hit .413 this spring with 2 HR, 6 total XBH, a .449 OBP, and even a SB. As soon as the season started, it went cold. He is hitting just .200 with a double, no HR’s, just 1 RBI, and 4 K’s with no walks. Goes to show why we minimize the meaning behind spring training results around here. The Kouz doesn’t touch mixed league consideration and even AL-only consideration is a stretch. The power potential feels like it should be there, but he has now posted AB/HR rates of 26.9, 27.1, 29.4, and 34.4 in the last four seasons, a downward trend that is also coupled with a diminishing BB% of 6.0%, 3.4%, 4.7%, and 4.1%.
Jhonny Peralta (SS - Tigers) - With SS being the way it is this year, Jhonny Peralta became a serious Top-10 SS consideration on draft day. Yes, I was reluctant too, but the 28 year old Peralta has opened the season on a decent enough note and is giving fantasy owners some relief that they actually might be ok at the SS position this year with Jhonny. Yesterday’s 0-for-3 hurt, but he had a modest 3-gamer going with 5 hits in 12 ABs. Because his BHIP% was a bit unlucky last year at just .224, our forecast has a rebound in batting average from .249 to .270. I will still like to see him get back to the 20+ HR seasons he enjoyed in Cleveland in ‘05, ‘07 and ‘08, but that will be a difficult task playing in Detroit. He’ll likely fall just short of the 20 HR mark, but still not bad for what as likely a late round gamble at SS.
Alcides Escobar (SS - Royals) - Escobar made the jump from Milwaukee to Kansas City in the Zack Greinke trade. The 24 year old SS was highly touted last year and did little to impress fantasy owners in his first full season of service, hitting just .235 with a .288 OBP, an XBH% of 3.3%, and 10 SB in 14 attempts (mostly diminished because his lack of time on base). The good news with the young SS is that his LD% was very high at 22% and his K rate was super low at just 3.3%. His low BHIP should yield better average results as well this year. He probably squeaks into the top-10 in AL SS and should remain on the watch list for improvements in OBP that could yield a higher SB%.
Manny Ramirez (OF/DH - Rays) - Manny was kept out of the starting lineup on Wednesday because he was “pressing” (according to manager Joe Maddon) and was out yesterday to attend to a family matter. He should be back in the team and in the Rays lineup to start the series against the White Sox. Manny has really slumped to start 2011, going just 1-for-17 with 4 K’s, no walks, and an RBI. The rest are all zeroes as Manny tries to carry the workload of a slumping Rays team. I could throw a ton of stats at you on Manny, but everyone knows he can mash. Even as of 2010, Manny still posted an .870 OPS (.915 with the Dodgers, .739 with the White Sox). It was certainly a big decline year across the boards, from power to K’s Manny was not your typical Manny, but there’s no reason he can’t hit 20 HR and knock in 90 for the Rays as the permanent DH.
AJ Burnett (SP - Yankees) - Burnett once again looked good as he featured his changeup more and earned his 2nd W of the season. He pitched 6.0 quality innings allowing 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, and recording 5 K’s. It was his first QS of the year. After an atrocious 2010 that has been covered extensively, Burnett looks like he’s adjust his approach slightly to become less of a power pitcher. A quick look at the pitch f/x data shows that Burnett has used his changeup almost 7.0% of the time this year compared to just 2.5% on average over the last four years. His fastball velocity is still there (around 93+ mph), so even a shift in focus should still yield decent K numbers. His 11 K’s is good for a K/I of 1.0 through the first two starts. We’ll keep an eye on the shift in focus, but so far so good for Burnett in what could be a bounce back year. He’s worth the flier now.
Brennan Boesch (OF - Tigers) - We’ve seen hot starts from Brennan Boesch before, but can he keep it up? He’s hitting .421 with a HR, 5 RBI, 13 TB, and 7 runs scored. Last year, we saw a similar start that lasted through the first half of the season only to completely implode in the 2nd half. In 2010, his first half line reads: .342/.397/.593, 12 HR, 49 RBI, and an EYE of 0.45. For the latter half of the year, his line was: .163/.237/.222, 2 HR, 18 RBI, and an EYE of 0.37. I’m all for riding the hot-hand when you can, but I see another sharp decline on the horizon.
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