Matt Kemp OF (LAD) – Kemp is off to a scorching start this year. He went 3-5 yesterday, which raises his average to an absurd .484. Kemp saw his K% rise last year, but early on appears to be making a conscious effort to make more contact as evidenced by his 3 strikeouts in 27 at bats. If he can get that K% back down to his 2009 levels, he could be in line for a monster year. The other issue with Kemp’s 2010 season was his failures on the basepaths (19 SB, 15 CS), which have also been corrected early on (6 SB, 0 CS). Plus, the 26 YO has seen his power on the rise for a couple years: ISO - .168/.193/.201, HR/FB% - 12.3/14.4/16.2. Kemp is a fantasy stud, and this could be his best season yet. I’m buying early on Kemp.
Leo Nunez RP (FLA) – Nunez picked up his third save in as many opportunities last night. If he is able to repeat last season’s peripherals (9.83 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 54 GB%), Nunez will have a much better season than people expect. His ERA was just 3.46 last season, but his FIP and xFIP were both 2.86. The main reason for the discrepancy between those numbers was the unlucky BABIP of .329 that Nunez had (33 points above his career average), which also inflated his 1.28 WHIP.
Colby Rasmus OF (STL) – It is a very small sample size, but Rasmus has shown some improvement in plate discipline early on that is encouraging for owners hoping for a breakout year. He has 7 walks to 5 strikeouts. His chase percentage is down 3.6 percentage points from last season, and his swinging strike percentage is an extremely low 4.8%. Again, very small sample size, but these are the gains you like to see out of a talent like Rasmus. Last year, he saw his BB% grown from 6.9% to 11.8%, but unfortunately his K% also grew, from 20% to 31.9%. If he is able to maintain the BB% from last season while having his K% return to 2009 levels, Rasmus is going to have a huge season.
Ryan Franklin RP (STL) – Franklin blew his third save in four opportunities last night. Owners should definitely worry as Franklin’s skills are lacking. He has an okay GB rate the past few seasons but a very subpar career K/9 of 5, especially for a closer. His control was solid last season (1.38 BB/9), but the two seasons prior to that it was 3.43 and 3.54. Don’t be surprised if the Cardinals make a switch soon. Jason Motte has struggled this year, but he posted a 2.24 ERA last season on the heels of a 9.29 K/9.
Huroki Kuroda SP (LAD) – Kuroda was one out away from recording a shutout last night, but he was yanked after giving up back to back singles. On the night, Kuroda struck out 4 and walked 2 while yielding 6 hits, only one of which went for extra bases. Kuroda, in general, is an underrated fantasy pitcher. He is incredibly consistent, just look at his past 3 year totals: ERA – 3.73/3.76/3.39, WHIP – 1.22/1.14/1.16. Early on Kuroda has 9 strikeouts and only 2 walks, which is not much of a surprise considering his extremely solid 3.63 and 3.31 K/BB ratios the past two years. Expect Kuroda to be a very safe fantasy option yet again this season, who is definitely someone to target if you need help in the WHIP category.
