Josh Tomlin SP (CLE) - Tomlin posted yet another quality start last night - 6 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 2 ER. I'm still not sold, though. The fact of the matter is Tomlin has been REALLY lucky. Entering last night's game, he had a 90.9 LOB%, which is absurd even before you factor in Tomlin's below average K rate (5.09 K/9). On top of that, his BABIP is ridiculously low at .157. Both of those numbers are far from sustainable and will result in a lot more runs and hits once they normalize. Look for Tomlin to post an ERA between 4.25 - 4.50 the rest of the season, as his FIP suggests it should currently be (4.70).
Jhonny Peralta SS (DET) - Peralta homered for the third time this season last night. He is poised for a solid season and should provide owners with great value at an offensively shallow position. His current .288 average is a career high but could last given an increase in contact rate (84.7%) for the second consecutive season as well as a career best 25.5 LD%. Given those peripherals, owners should also expect some more homers as Peralta's 4.7 HR/FB% heading into yesterday's game should revert towards his career mark of 10.9%.
Rajai Davis OF (TOR) - I like Rajai Davis as a buy low candidate for those of you in need of speed. He is currently hitting just .182, but his current singles average of .200 is well below what he has posted the past two seasons (.295 and .275). While his plate discipline is disappointing early on (.21 EYE), you must keep in mind that Davis has missed some time due to injury and his current sample size is about half of most everyday players. His fantasy potential will always be limited due to a low walk rate, but once Davis' singles average and contact rate comes in line with his career marks you are looking at a .260-.270 hitter who appears to have a constant green light in the Blue Jays newly aggressive attack under first year manager, John Farrell. Note: After writing this, Davis singled in the bottom of the 10th inning for the Jays and subsequently stole 2nd and 3rd base allowing him to score on a walk off sacrifice fly. He now has 9 steals in just 17 games despite limited opportunities in those games due to his low BA.
Michael Pineda SP (SEA) - Pineda gave up 3 ER over 6 IP to the Baltimore Orioles last night, but despite the just okay line (from an ER, hits perspective) Pineda continued to show why he is a top young pitcher by striking out 6 while walking just 1. He has showed outstanding dominance early in his career with a 9.14 K/9 over 44.1 IP. Perhaps more impressively has been the good control shown for a rookie power pitcher; Pineda's K/BB ratio is also outstanding as a result, at 3.46. About the only chink in the armor for Pineda is that he is a fly ball pitcher (just a 31.3 GB%), which will result in a higher than normal HR/9 once his HR/FB% rises (was an unsustainable 4% heading into last night's game), although his home park will and high average fastball velocity (96 according to FanGraphs) could allow him to keep his HR/FB% below league average.
Justin Morneau 1B (MIN) - Justin Morneau continues to struggle and his current AVG/OBP/SLG lines is a putrid .212/.274/.298 and certainly pales in comparison to his career line of .283/.355/.505. It's tough to tell exactly what is wrong with Morneau - probably a combination of a readjustment period after missing a bunch of time due to his concussion last season, some bad luck and just bad hitting. Morneau owners really have no option other than to hold, as the market for Morneau could not be any lower right now. I think he'll come around though. Morneau's patience has been a little thin this year (walk rate down about 3 percentage points from his career norm), but he isn't striking out more than normal. Also, Morneau's breakdown of balls in play (LD/GB/FB) is relatively in line with what he has done in the past. So, with that in mind and the fact that Morneau is at age 30 (okay he'll be 29 for a few more days) this type of drop off in production is unlikely to continue. His current singles average is .188 (previous three year average of .254), and his current HR/FB% is 2.6% (career mark of 14.8%). Both of those numbers should start to normalize soon leading to a dramatic increase in Morneau's current production across the board.
