Josh Tomlin - I wrote a couple weeks ago about how lucky Josh Tomlin had been through his first few starts. Well, it's a few weeks later and Tomlin's peripheral stats are still indicating that he should play the lottery. The Indians' right hander entered Saturday's outing with a .178 BABIP and owned an incredible 86% strand rate along with a 4.43 FIP (compared to his 2.56 ERA). He then went out against the Reds yesterday and pitched yet another gem, allowing 1 ER and 3 hits through 7 innings en route to picking up his 6th win of the season. I'm encouraged by Tomlin's improved groundball rate, which has jumped from 28% in 2010 to 37% this season. He still allows quite a few HRs (8 in 59 innings), but because he limits walks and hits, 7 of the 8 dingers occurred with no one on base. It's going to be darn near impossible for Tomlin to continue pitching with such a low BABIP and strand rate, but at this point you might as well ride the hot streak. Remember, Tomlin's now started 21 games in the majors and has pitched through 5 innings in all 21.
Brandon Morrow - Brandon Morrow's fantasy owners had to be quite disappointed with the pitcher's performance on Saturday. Facing a weak Houston Astros lineup, Morrow struggled through 6+ innings, allowing 4 ER and 12 base runners while striking out 6. For the season, Morrow now owns a 5.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP with 43 strikeouts in 32 innings. Obviously, the strikeout rate is excellent but Morrow isn't contributing in many other pitching categories right now. He entered yesterday's start with an outstanding 0.35 HR rate and 3.08 K/BB mark but had been dealing with a 62% strand rate and .344 BABIP. Needless to say, Morrow's 4.85 ERA prior to Saturday's outing was much higher than his 2.06 FIP. So, despite his recent struggles, Morrow is actually pitching pretty well meaning you need to stick with him in his upcoming starts. Morrow was a popular "sleeper" heading into this season and there's no reason to temper expectations just because of some unfortunate luck through his first few starts.
Edwin Jackson - One of the most inconsistent and frustrating pitchers for fantasy owners this season, Edwin Jackson aims for his 4th win of the season today when he takes on the Dodgers. Jackson's strikeout (7.28) and walk rates (3.56) are similar to his 2010 season and he's actually lowered his HR rate from 0.90 in 2010 to just 0.65 this season. However, Jackson is inducing 5% fewer grounders in 2011 and owns a .345 BABIP, which is 36 points above his career average. To me, what stands out the most and gives me hope that Jackson can be a valuable SP in fantasy, is the difference between his ERA and FIP marks the past two seasons. In 2010, he owned a 4.47 ERA but a much more respectable 3.86 ERA. This season, there's an even larger difference between Jackson's ERA (4.53) and FIP (3.42). I like Jackson as a buy-low candidate right now and see him as a solid back end of the rotation starter.
Jose Bautista - What can you say about Jose Bautista at this point? The Blue Jays' slugger connected for HRs No. 17 and No. 18 on Saturday against the Astros and now owns an .841 SLG% and .509 OBP to go along with 31 RBI. After posting an incredible .337 ISO in 2010, Bautista entered yesterday's game against the Astros with a .445 mark, which is patently absurd. It's amazing to think that just one small adjustment in his swing turned a journeyman into the best hitter in baseball but that's exactly what happened for Bautista. I'm also encouraged by Bautista's improved walk rate, which has increased from 14% in 2010 to 22% this season. He's also cut his strikeout rate from 20% last season to just 16% in 2011. If you own Bautista on your fantasy team, enjoy the ride with the best hitter in the majors.
Rick Porcello - I'm usually pretty bearish on Rick Porcello thanks to his sub-5.00 career strikeout rate and 4.46 career FIP. However, so far this season, there's a little more reason for optimism when discussing Porcello's merits as a fantasy baseball pitcher. After two straight seasons with strikeout rates of 4.65 and 4.69, Porcello is now tallying a 5.83 mark while maintaining his walk rate (2.38) and lowering his HR rate (0.86). Those are definitely good signs and makes me add Porcello to a deep league watch list. He's also been dealing with a .321 BABIP but that number has evened out with his 78% strand rate. The right hander continues to rack up the grounders (49% GB%) and, at just 22-years old, is still developing into a major league pitcher. Based off his early-season performance, Porcello's back on my map as an option in keeper leagues. Porcello faces the Pirates today in interleague play.
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