Shaun Marcum - I've been touting Shaun Marcum as an underrated fantasy SP since the pre-season and he's lived up to the height so far, posting a 6-1 record with a sparkling 2.37 ERA and 2.69 FIP. The best news for Marcum's owners is that he's improved his strikeout rate for the 3rd straight season with an 8.63 strikeout rate through 64 innings. Despite his fly ball rate increasing by 4% to 47%, Marcum's HR rate has dropped to 0.70 and his HR/FB rate has fallen to just 6.0%. Part of Marcum's success can be attributed to his increased usage of a change-up, from 25% in '10 to 32% this season. He's also decreased the usage of his fastball from 45% last season to 29% while also throwing his curveball 5% more often. Perhaps most impressive, Marcum's stuff is good enough to induce whiffs on pitches inside the strike zone. When batters swing at a pitch inside the strike zone this season, they're only making contact 69% of the time - down from 76% in '10. Marcum faces the Giants today and remains a strong No. 2 SP in most league formats.
Ubaldo Jimenez - It's hard to believe that Ubaldo Jimenez enters today's start against the Cardinals with an 0-4 record and ugly 5.44 ERA. Jimenez has maintained his strikeout rate compared to last season (8.26 in '11 vs. 8.69 in '10) but is walking nearly 2 more batters per game (5.64 in '11 vs. 3.74 in '10). His HR rate has also doubled from 0.41 to 0.81. Jimenez is dealing with a 62% strand rate, which is 15% lower than a season ago, but he's also benefiting from a .254 BABIP. If you're looking for some positives, Jimenez does have a much better 4.39 FIP than his ERA and has tossed quality starts in 3 of his past 4 outings. If you own Jimenez, you might as well hang onto him with his value so low and hope he can continue to build on his recent success.
Javier Vazquez - When I heard Javier Vazquez pitched 7 shutout innings with 7 strikeouts and 2 walks in his last start on May 21 against Tampa Bay, I thought the Rapture was actually happening. After recording a 7.55 ERA with a 20:24 K:BB in his first 8 starts, Vazquez was a totally different pitcher against the Rays. He posted a positive GB:FB rate for the first time this season, did not allow a run in the first inning for the first time this season and consistently stayed in the low 90s for his entire outing. Despite this excellent start, and the fact I touted Vazquez as a sleeper in the pre-season (ugh), it's far from time to start adding him in any league format. I'm a little intrigued to see how he fares today against the Dodgers but my expectations are tempered, mostly because Vazquez has been terrible for 90% of the season and I don't trust that he suddenly found his low 90s fastball for good.
Ryan Vogelsong - Compared to his recent starts, Ryan Vogelsong got shelled by the Marlins Thursday, allowing 1 ER over 8 innings to raise his ERA to 1.77. Prior to yesterday's outing, Vogelsong had strung together 3 straight starts without allowing a run and didn't get pricked by the Marlins until the 6th inning. At 33, Vogelsong has been around for a long time and owns a career 5.49 ERA and 4.72 FIP so it's hard to buy into him being able to sustain anything close to his recent success moving forward. However, Vogelsong's peripheral stats looks good: strikeout rate around 8.00, walk rate under 3.00 and HR rate around 0.50 to go along with a respectable 44% ground ball rate. He's on a hot streak right now and doing all the right things, making Vogelsong an add in deeper leagues. Plug him into your lineup and ride out this streak while you can.
Carlos Pena - One of the kings of the Three True Outcome players, Carlos Pena smacked his 6th HR of the season on Thursday against the Mets and finished the game 1-for-4 with 2 runs and 1 walk. Pena continues to be a much more valuable player in OBP leagues than BA leagues as he's hitting just .218 but has a solid .361 OBP. He's also coming alive in May entering yesterday's game with 5 HRs, 14 RBI and a .935 OPS compared to 0 HRs, 4 RBI and a .464 OPS in April. That dreadful April, coupled with Pena's horrendous 2010 campaign and age (33), has me nervous about his ability to ever hit 30 HRs again, but I'm obviously encouraged by his May performance. You might as well play the hot hand and get him in your starting lineup in deep NL-only and mixed leagues.
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