Rich Harden - Like that crazy girlfriend you just can't quit, Rich Harden intrigued fantasy baseball managers on Saturday by tossing 6 innings and allowing just 2 ER while striking out 9. In 18 innings since coming off the DL, Harden now has 17 strikeouts and a 1.11 WHIP. He's really struggling with the HR, yielding 4 bombs in his 3 starts but has maintained his elite strikeout potential. While it's too early to tell if Harden can regain his 2008 form that saw him post a 2.07 ERA and 2.95 FIP, he is worth a pickup in deep leagues if only to see if he can string together a few solid starts. I'm not at all convinced he can maintain his health or keep his ERA down, but the guy is a strikeout machine with an extremely high ceiling. Go ahead and grab him off the waiver wire but allow another start or two before trusting him in your lineup.
Jake Peavy - The White Sox announced on Saturday that Jake Peavy's next start will be pushed back from Sunday against Detroit to Tuesday versus Kansas City. The move was made to give Peavy a chance to rest his arm and regain some velocity. It was a rough first half for the former Padre who has a 5.27 ERA and threw just 54 innings due to injuries. Peavy hasn't topped 170 innings since 2008 so it's hard to bank on him to stay healthy. That said, if he does manage to toss 80 innings in the second half, there's a good chance his ERA will dramatically improve. Peavy owns an excellent 3.20 FIP this season and has dealt with a 59% LOB% which explains the discrepancy between his ERA and FIP. However, Peavy's fantasy owners are likely more disappointed with the lack of strikeouts. With a fastball that's dropped to just 90 mph, Peavy is only whiffing 6.91 batters per 9 innings which is the lowest mark of his career and nearly 2 batters lower than his career average (8.86). It's clear this Peavy isn't the same one from his days as a dominant SP for San Diego. Fewer strikeouts coupled with a high injury risk mean I'm not too excited about Peavy's prospects in the second half.
Josh Beckett - Josh Beckett warmed up to pitch in Tuesday's All Star game, felt soreness in his knee and ended up not pitching in the game. This news worried Boston fans and Beckett's fantasy owners but it appears he's set to make his start today versus the Rays. I've been pushing that Beckett's fantasy owners strongly consider selling high on the veteran right hander since he's been outpitching his peripheral stats all season. Beckett certainly won't maintain his current 2.27 ERA and his xFIP is a much more reasonable 3.71. Through 111 innings, Beckett owns his lowest strikeout rate since 2006 at 7.62 and has cut his HR rate from 1.41 in 2010 to a meager 0.57 this season. That just doesn't seem sustainable to me, especially when considering Beckett's career HR rate is 0.98. I'm thinking Beckett has an ERA in the mid-3.00s in the second half and maintains his 7.5-ish K/9 rate.
Felipe Paulino - I continue to drive the Felipe Paulino bandwagon and we're feeling real good about today's start versus the Twins. Paulino owns a 1-6 record and 4.31 ERA but his peripheral stats make him worth spot starts like in today's matchup. For the season, Paulino owns an 8.47 strikeout rate and, frankly, in deep leagues it's awfully tough to find guys with 8.00+ strikeout rates on the waiver wire. Couple that with his respectable 2.73 walk rate, excellent 0.86 HR rate and 48% GB% and you can see why his FIP is 3.48 and xFIP is 3.29. Paulino also does a good job working ahead in the count (60% first pitch strike %) and he's getting a bit unlucky with a .363 BABIP. The guy is still just 27, so I'm intrigued to see if he can become a legitimate and consistent fantasy SP in the second half.
Edwin Jackson - Edwin Jackson was truly outstanding on Saturday against the Tigers, tossing a complete game shutout to lower his season ERA to 3.97. Last season Jackson posted a 4.47 ERA but had a much more respectable 3.86 FIP. This season has been more of the same for Jackson who entered Saturday's start with a 4.30 ERA but much more impressive 3.17 FIP. He's been bitten by a low strand rate the past two seasons and by an especially high .341 BABIP in 2011. Compared to last season, Jackson has also maintained his strikeout rate while lowering walk and HR rates. I've written before that Jackson is a good buy-low candidate and he's due to start catching some breaks. He's certainly inconsistent but he also has a high ceiling, especially if his ERA starts falling in line with his peripheral stats.
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