Francisco Cordero RP (CIN) - Cordero blew his third straight save yesterday, and his owners should be nervous. His 2.54 ERA is extremely misleading; Cordero has a 4.06 FIP. His skills are in decline. If you don't believe that just look at Cordero's downward trending K/9 since 2007: 12.22/9.98/7.83/7.31/6.23. He has shown some improvement in his GB and BB rates, but what is really keeping Cordero from exploding is a .206 BABIP which is well below both his career mark (.298). Cordero hasn't posted a BABIP below .294 since 2002, so it's likely to rise quite a bit over the season's second half along with his blown save totals.
Raul Ibanez OF (PHI) - It was a big day for Raul Ibanez; he homered and drove in 6 runs. Frankly I don't think the 39 YO has much left in the tank, though. His power is declining as evidence by a second straight season with a sub .170 ISO. Now, Ibanez's plate discipline is going out the window as his .63 EYE from a year ago has been nearly chopped in half (.32). Additionally, both Ibanez's LD and FB percentages are about 3 percentage points, each, below his respective career averages. The reduced loft is not a good sign for an aging power hitter.
Andre Ethier OF (LAD) - Ethier hit 2 homers yesterday, but that gives him just 10 on the season. That is certainly disappointing for a guy I felt could emerge as a 40 homer threat. So what has happened to the power? Well, his HR/FB% and FB% are both down. That's not good for HR power. The good news for owners over the second half of the season is Ethier boasts a whopping LD% of 28% and his patience is intact (double digit walk rate). As a result, I'm left to conclude there's a good chance that both Ethier's HR/FB% and FB% rise over the season's second half and he gets over 20 homers.
Jordan Zimmerman SP (WAS) - Zimmerman struck out 6 without walking a batter over 6.1 scoreless innings yesterday. He entered the game with a 2.82 ERA. I don't think Zimmerman will drop off a clip, but if you can sell high it might not be a bad idea. I'm skeptical Zimmerman can maintain his very low BB/9 of 1.74., but I'm positive his 2.9 HR/FB% will not remain that low. Once Zimmerman starts giving up long balls at a normal rate his ERA will certainly be on the rise; his xFIP of nearly a run higher than his actual ERA is an indication of this.
Andrew McCutchen OF (PIT) - It's a travesty that it took a number of drop outs to get McCutchen into the All-Star game, but at least he got there eventually. McCutchen hit his 14th homer of the season yesterday, and he has taken the leap forward offensively that many expected him to. The key for him has been patience and power. McCutchen has a career best 12.8 BB% and for the third straight season is chasing far fewer pitches outside of the strike zone than the league average. His ISO is also a career best at .206. The rise in McCutchen's ISO can be attributed to the expected rise in his HR/FB% (from 8.7 to 12.1). After all, McCutchen is just 24. It's crazy to think that at the All-Star break, he has just 7 RBI's less than all of last year.
