Justin Verlander SP (DET) - Just another day at the office for Verlander as he held the Minnesota offense completely in check yesterday. He allowed just 1 ER in 7.2 innings of work while adding 7 strikeouts and just 1 free pass. Verlander is so successful because with each passing year he is able to expand the strike zone more and more. Here are the chase rates he has induced since his rookie season: 15.4%/22.8/23.2/24.5/29.4/31.9/34.3. Verlander just gets better and better with time. This year Verlander's super high chase rate of 34.3% has allowed him to be extremely successful without throwing a lot of hittable pitches; his zone percentage (pitches in the strike zone) is a career low at 41.6%. Yet, the high chase rate has still enabled Verlander to have his second highest K/9 of his career at 9.05 and the lowest BB/9 of his career at 1.89. By staying away from the strike zone, Verlander is also giving up line drives at only a 17.6% clip, the lowest mark of his career.
Jacoby Ellsbury OF (BOS) - Jacoby Ellsbury is completely locked in at the plate right now, not that this is news to any of you. He homered in each game of a double header yesterday, giving him a total of 22 on the season. That's pretty remarkable considering he had just 20 career homers in 349 games entering the season. With Ellsbury's HR/FB% double his career mark, in some cases I'd be calling for owners to sell high. However, Ellsbury has a whopping LD% of 24%, which is one of the highest I've ever seen this late into the season. That means he is making extremely solid contact. Given that fact and Ellsbury's age (27), I think he could sustain the power outburst or at the very least it shouldn't completely fade down the stretch.
Mark Buehrle SP (CHW) - Mark Buehrle heads into today's start with his lowest ERA since....well, ever. Now, some of that has to do with decreased offense acorss the Major League, but some it also has to do with luck. Buehrle currently has a BABIP of .278, which is his lowest since 2002 and is 12 points below his career mark. Also, Buehrle has the highest LOB% of his career at 76.2%; his career LOB% is 72.5%. As those two numbers, Buehrle's BABIP and LOB%, move closer towards his career marks over the last month and the half of the season, Beuhrle is much more likely to post an ERA of 4 rather than 3 from here on out. As Drew mentioned earlier this week, Buehrle is a solid matchups play, but those of you, especially in standard mixed leagues, who think he will help your ratios each time out are mistaken.
Brandon Morrow SP (TOR) - Perhaps I'm a sucker, but I continue to believe in Brandon Morrow. He is posting an FIP in the low 3's for the second consecutive season. The reason Morrow's ERA is not reflecting this is a LOB% of 62.5%, which is very low for any starting pitcher, let alone a guy who strikes out 10.09 batters per 9. That's one of the higher K rates in the Majors for a starting pitcher, and it has been shown that guys with higher K rates tend to be able to post better strand rates. Look for Morrow to start stranding more runners, which should allow him to post an ERA closer to 3 for the rest of the season. Either way, he stands to enter 2012 fantasy drafts as an underrated commodity.
Adrian Beltre 3B (TEX) - It has been revealed that Adrian Beltre (hamstring) likely will not return to the Rangers until September. I was recently surprised to see him dropped in a 15 team roto league I'm in that has 7 bench spots. Beltre is not the most patient of hitters, but his high contact rate (90.5%) and power (.229 ISO), along with his home ballpark and strong supporting cast, should make him one of the top 3B RBI guys for the month of September, should he return healthy. As a result, I think he's worth stashing on IR or even on the bench for the next couple of weeks.
