Asdrubal Cabrera - To illustrate how much Asdrubal Cabrera has improved his power from 2010 to 2011, you just need to look at his ISO. The Indians' shortstop posted a .071 ISO in 2010 and entered Saturday's game against the Rangers with a .203 mark in 2011. Cabrera finished 1-for-4 on Saturday with a walk. For the season, he has as many total bases as Troy Tulowitzki and is slugging nearly .500. Cabrera is hitting the most fly balls of his career (37% FB%) and has altered his GB/FB ratio from 1.65 in 2010 to just 1.19 this season. The increase in fly balls has meant more power, specifically HRs. Any time a player makes such an improvement in power, it's hard to believe he can actually keep it up, but all signs point to Cabrera at least being able to maintain a SLG% in the upper .400s and ISO in the upper .100s. I told you to sell high on Cabrera earlier this season, but that wasn't good advice as Cabrera is just too good to deal unless you're getting significant value in return.
Alfredo Simon - Converted to a starter midway through this season, Alfredo Simon has pitched pretty effectively as both a starter and reliever this season by compiling a 3.29 FIP and 2.40 K/BB in 51 innings. Simon will make his 6th start of the season later today against the Royals. Simon has always struggled with the gopher ball, yielding 1.65 HR/9 for his career. However, he's allowed just 3 HRs so far this season which is good enough for a 0.52 HR rate. Simon has cut back on the number of fastballs he throws (down 9% from 2010) and has significantly increased the usage of his curveball (up 17% from 2010). The result has been a higher chase rate and more contact on pitches outside the strike zone. Simon's maintained a 3.83 ERA despite a low strand rate so he's worth a spot start today if you're desperate in deeper leagues.
Freddy Garcia - How did we get to a place where it's actually worth considering the idea of starting Freddy Garcia against the Red Sox later today? What is this, 2004? While ultimately Garcia should be benched (unless you're in desperate need of a Sunday starter), the fact remains that Garcia has tossed 117 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 3.56 FIP. He's got a solid 2.35 strikeout-to-walk ratio and has yielded just 9 HRs all season. Despite an 87 mph fastball, Garcia has managed to keep hitters off balance by increasing the usage of his split-fingered fastball and curveball while throwing fewer sliders. He's actually got an excellent 31% chase rate and has done a good job working ahead of hitters (63% first-pitch strike %). Again, starting Garcia today is a pretty risky move since Boston's offense is so good, but he's safe to deploy in most situations moving forward, at least until he turns into a pumpkin.
John Danks - With the surprise call up of Zach Stewart to start Saturday's game against the Twins, John Danks' scheduled Sunday start has been pushed back to Monday. After a rough first half where he posted a 4.21 ERA in 15 starts, Danks is off to a nice start to the second half of the season by recording a 2.37 ERA in his 3 starts since the All Star game. He's improved his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2.32 pre-All Star compared to a 4.20 mark since the mid-summer classic. For the season, Danks' 4.12 FIP is right around his career average of 4.20 and his 6.85 strikeout rate is identical to last season. If you own Danks, Monday's road matchup against the Orioles looks good, but keep in mind that the lefty has really struggled away for U.S. Cellular this season, allowing a 4.86 ERA on the road compared to a 3.14 mark at home. I'd still start Danks tomorrow but moving forward, his home/road splits are definitely something to consider.
Josh Beckett - Josh Beckett enters his start against the Yankees today with an incredibly low 2.20 ERA which is, oh, just 3.58 runs lower than his 2010 mark. Thanks to a significant drop in his HR rate (0.71 in '11 compared to 1.41 in '10), a .222 BABIP and an 83% strand rate, Beckett's been both good and lucky. He's not going to maintain this ERA (although I feel like I say that every week and he somehow maintains this ERA), but when he does regress, I don't think it'll be too terrible. Expect an ERA in the mid-3.00s moving forward and decent strikeout rates. He has a tough start today versus Yanks but then gets the Mariners next week.
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