Brandon Beachy SP (ATL) - Beachy continued his stellar rookie season last night by limiting the Diamondbacks to 1 run over 6 IP. As usual, Beachy had his strikeout pitch going; he struck out 7 while walking just 1. On the season, Beachy's solid ERA of 3.32 is supported by a strong K/BB ratio of 3.75 and a superb K/9 of 9.97. Those numbers have a tendency to scream sub-3 ERA, but Beachy does have a weakness. He is extremely FB risky as he only induces ground balls 32.4% of the time. This has led Beachy to give up 1.16 HR/9, which has prevented him from posting that sub-3 ERA. Still, he has induced a well above league average number of swinging strikes from opponents while getting them to chase pitches outside of the zone at a percentage also well above league average. This should allow Beachy to maintain his phenomenal K rate.
Carlos Marmol RP (CHC) - Marmol worked a clean 9th inning for his 29th save of the season last night. On the season, Marmol has been pretty volatile, and his 3.94 ERA is well above last season's 2.94 mark. So, what's the problem? For starters, Marmol struck out a whopping 15.99 batters per 9 last year, which covered up for his two main weaknesses: wild and FB risky. However, this year Marmol's strikeout rate has fallen back down to earth (11.38/9 - which is still very, very good and in line with Marmol's career mark), which have allowed his high BB/9 of 5.46 and low GB% of 37.4% to hurt him. The latter has also hurt Marmol more than last season as his HR/FB% from a year ago (1.6%) has reverted towards his career average (6.7%) this season. All in all, Marmol is a capable closer due to his strikeout ability, but he clearly comes with his share of risk and the pitcher he has been this year is much more a true representation of who he truly is.
Matt Garza SP (CHC) - Garza earned just his 6th win of the season yesterday, shutting out the Cardinals over 7 IP and striking out 8 while walking just 2. Garza has pitched very well this season, but some bad luck has hurt his surface stats. For starters, Garza's expected win total is in the low double digits, but as I said before he has just 6 on the year. Garza's ERA is okay at 3.62, but his FIP is 3.01. The switch to the NL has allowed Garza to post the best K/9 (9.27) and GB% (47.8) of his career. Look for Garza to stop giving up as many runs as his 68.9 LOB% creeps up towards his career mark of 72.9%.
Kyle Blanks OF (SD) - Blanks hit his 5th homer of the year yesterday. Blanks now has 5 homers in just 28 games, but him flashing power is not something new. Back in 2009 he hit 10 homers in just 54 games. The problem for Blanks, which was evident last season when he opened up the year with a regular role which did not last long, is his inability to make contact. For his career he has a K% of 32.9% and that hasn't changed much so far this year (28%). He also has a tough time making solid contact even when he does connect with the ball as evidenced by his career 14.3 LD%. The power for Blanks is for real, but he won't hit for enough average to keep regular playing time. The ZIPS rest of season projections have Blanks pegged to hit .236 the rest of the way.
Aaron Harang SP (SD) - Boy can records be misleading. Last night Harang improved to 12-3 and only gave up 1 run despite walking 5 batters over 6 innings. If I could move Harang based on his record, I certainly would. He's pitched okay this season, but really does not have a lot of skills. His K/BB ratio is under 2, and his GB% of 40.8% is below league average and could come down some more based on Harang's recent history. Not to mention, Harang plays for a team 12 games under .500. Look for his wins to come at a much, much slower pace over the last 6 weeks of the season.
