Phil Hughes (SP-NYY) Hughes earned a six inning complete game shutout because the game was called after a rain delay during the seventh inning. Hughes allowed only 3 hits and struck out four to earn his second win of the season, and he lowered his ERA to 6.93 in the process. Hughes had his best velocity of the season, averaging 92.5 mph with his fastball and toping out at 95 mph a couple of times. His value will begin to rise once again as he showed the same velocity that helped him to record 18 victories last season. His spot in the rotation looks safe for now even if Ivan Nova pitches well tomorrow, but I think Hughes still needs to show a that same velocity in one or tow more starts before he can be considered a reliable fantasy starter once again...
Colby Lewis (SP-TEX) Lewis was knocked around in last night's start against the Tigers. His ERA increased to 4.14 after allowing 5 runs (4 earned) on 10 hits, 1 home run, 3 strikeouts and 3 walks in only 4 innings. Lewis has lost some velocity this season. He has averaged 88.9 mph on his fastball this season compared to 90.1 mph last season, but he only averaged 87.5 mph on 37 fastballs last night. Lewis' performance as not been affected by adverse luck as his 4.10 xFIP indicates. He has suffered from a high HR/FB ratio of 13 percent, but that has essentially been voided by a low BABIP of .258 and a high strand rate of 78.2 percent. His strikeout rate of 7.58 K/9 is still valuable, but his propensity for the long ball and recent lack of velocity makes him strictly a matchup candidate at this point.
Matt Joyce (RF-TB) Joyce's struggles since June continued against the Blue Jays last night as he went hitless in 4 plate appearances, which included a walk. His slash line has dropped to .276/.336/.498 for the season, but he does have a career high 15 home runs and 9 stolen bases. Joyce had a wRC+ of 61 during from June to the end of July, and what has been concerning is the decrease in his walk rate from 15.3 to 8.7 percent. He is chasing pitches out of the strikezone at a 30.5 percent rate, which is a career high. In daily leagues, Joyce should only be used against right-handed starters, but he is still worthwhile in other leagues. His average shouldn't dip below .270, and his HR/FB ratio has improved since last season. He will continue to provide a good combination of speed and power. Expect 13-15 stolen bases and 20 plus home runs by the end of the season.
Jemile Weeks (2B-OAK) Weeks went hitless in 5 at-bats with a strikeout in the A's loss to the Mariners last night. Weeks now has a line of .291/.318/.397 for the season with zero home runs and 11 stolen bases. Weeks has cooled off as of late going 4-for-19 over his last 5 games. He has produced a line drive rate of 21.6 percent this season, and he should be able to maintain a batting average between .285 and .290. His walk rate of 3.8 percent needs to improve, but he showed an 11.1 percent walk rate during his 4 seasons in the minors. If that number does not improve by the end of this season, it should be closer to his minor league rate by this time next season. Furthermore, opposing pitchers will not continue to maintain a 68.1 percent first pitch strike percentage throughout the rest of the season.
Mark Reynolds (3B-BAL) Reynolds went 3-for-5 with a home run, 2 runs scored and 5 RBI's to lead the Orioles to a victory over the Orioles. Reynolds now has 24 home runs and 60 RBI's, and he improved his line to .224/.337/.486 for the season. Despite a terrible first two months of the season, his .262 ISO is the second best mark of his career. Most importantly, Reynolds has cut his strikeout rate from 35.4 to 28 percent (a career low). He has chased few pitches out of the strike zone, which has allowed him to improve that rate and maintain an impressive 13.9 percent walk rate. His 13.9 percent line drive rate has kept his average below .225 and while Reynolds will never hit for a high batting average, he is a safe bet to hit 35-38 home runs and finish the season with 8-10 stolen bases.
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