Chris Capuano (SP-NYM) Capuano did not earn a decision on Thursday against the Cardinals. He allowed 4 runs on 8 hits, 2 home runs and 2 walks while striking out 4 in 4.2 innings of work. His ERA increased to 4.55, but an xFIP of 3.73 suggests that Capuano might be a nice pickup next season. He posted an above average strikeout rate of 7.95 K/9, and has a swinging strike rate of 10.7 percent. This season he has been hurt mostly by a BABIP of .313 despite having a line drive of 17.3 percent. In fact most of his hits allowed yesterday were on ground balls. However, if he does not stay with the Mets next season, his overall value will decrease. He came into the game with a 3.16 FIP at home and a 4.77 FIP on the road, and he has given up 17 of his 25 home runs on the road.
Jimmy Rollins (SS-PHI) Rollins went hitless with one walk in 4 plate appearances against the Nationals on Thursday. He dropped his slash line to .262/.333/.388 for the season to go along with his 28 stolen bases and 14 home runs. Rollins was able to stay healthier this season, amassing more than 600 plate appearances compared to 397 last season. His .270 BABIP suggests that he should have a higher batting average this season, and that is backed up by his 20.1 percent line drive rate. Rollins still holds above average value for a shortstop next season because of his ability to steal close to 30 bases and his 9 percent walk rate. However, his power numbers have dropped significantly, even from last season. His .126 ISO is his lowest number since 2003. His days of hitting 20 plus home runs are far behind him, and he still has some injury concerns to deal with as he gets older and continues to deal with a demanding position.
Carlos Lee (1B/LF-HOU) Lee went 1-for-2 with a double, a walk, a run scored and 4 RBI against the Rockies yesterday. He improved his slash line to .277/.339/.452 to go along with his 18 home runs and 90 RBI this season. While Lee has still been a productive fantasy player this season, 2011 has continued a trend in which Lee's home run totals have declined in each of the last 5 years. Furthermore, his HR/FB ratio has decreased during the last 3 seasons to a career low 7.9 percent in 2011. Lee will continue to provide close to 100 RBI next season if he remains in his spot in the Astros' lineup, but I expect his home run total to decrease again next season. However, he should be able to produce a similar average and walk rate. Lee has produced a 21.2 percent line drive rate, and he has cut his chase rate from 34.5 percent last season to 27 percent in 2011.
Mark Melancon (RP-HOU) Melancon saved his twentieth game of the season last night against the Rockies. He pitched a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts and lowered his ERA to 2.90. He has pitched well in his first season as a closer lowering his xFIP from 3.54 to 3.16 this season. Additionally, he has been pitching well of late producing an xFIP of 1.86 during the month of September. Melancon strikes out a good number of opposing hitters with a strikeout rare of 8.07 K/9, but also has induced hitters to produce a 56.2 percent ground ball rate. Melancon should be entrusted with the role next season even though Brandon Lyon should be available to begin the 2012 season, but with the Astros one can never be too sure, especially when it comes to Brandon Lyon.
Alex White (SP-COL) White's record fell to 3-3 after allowing 5 earned runs to Astros in just 4.2 innings. He walked none, struck out 6 and allowed 6 hits as his overall ERA increased to 7.04. White's ERA has been heavily affected by allowing 14 home runs in just 47.1 innings pitched, which equals the total he allowed in the minors in parts of 3 seasons. That translates to a 22.6 percent HR/FB ratio, and along with a walk rate of 4.85 BB/9 has kept White's ERA above 7.00 this season. I do like White's overall stuff with a fastball that averages above 92 mph, a slider and a hard splitter. It is worth noting that 9 of White's home runs allowed have come at Coors Field, and the young pitcher is adjusting to pitching in the high altitude. He is another pitcher who does not have a rotation spot secure for next season, but that should be on your radar.
