Yovani Gallardo SP (MIL) - Gallardo was dominant last night as he struck out 13 batters and yielded just 2 hits and 1 ER over 6 IP. For the second straight season, Gallardo made significant improvement in terms of his control. Here are his BB/9 the past 3 seasons: 4.56/3.65/2.69. His K/9 have been down this year, but Gallardo has really turned it on as of late making me think his 2012 K/9 will look more like 2009/2010 (9.73 and 9.89 those years) than 2011 (8.82). Gallardo has struck out 25 in his past two games. He has registered 3 double digit strikeout games in his past 5 starts despite having just 1 game of that nature the entire season previously. In August and September combined, Gallardo has posted an impressive K/9 mark of 11.04. Further reason to expect Gallardo to have a better 2012 season is his 13.2 HR/FB% will hopefully regress to his career mark of 10.2%, which should help to shave some points off of his ERA.
Craig Kimbrel RP (ATL) - Kimbrel continued his dominant year last night by closing out a victory by striking out the side in order in the 9th inning. His current campaign is reminiscent of Carlos Marmol's great 2010 season. However, I don't see Kimbrel having a letdown year similar to Marmol this season. Kimbrel isn't as quite as wild as Marmol (3.59 BB/9 compared to Marmol's 6.03 mark in 2010), and Kimbrel isn't as FB risky (46.2 GB% compared to Marmol's 35.1% in 2010). In other words there were some warning signs in 2010 that Marmol could regress this year; Kimbrel's 2011 does not show those same warning signs.
Chris Volstad SP (FLA) - Volstad only allowed 1 ER over 7 IP last night, but received a no decision. Volstad's K:BB ratio was just 3:2, but he succeeded by inducing 11 ground ball outs versus just 2 fly ball outs. That is somewhat typical of Volstad who has a GB% of 51.3 on the season. Volstad has an awful 5.31 ERA, but he may be of use in NL only leagues and deep leagues next season. His xFIP is just 3.69 thanks to that high GB% and an okay K/BB ratio of 2.31. If Volstad's BABIP (.320), LOB% (66.8%) and HR/FB% (15.6%) can revert to his career averages next season of .297, 69.8% and 12.3% respectively, he should have a much better year.
Ryan Braun OF (MIL) - Braun is in the discussion for NL MVP, and he blasted his 31st homer of the year last night. Braun ended up 3-5 on the night as he tallied 4 RBI. Braun enters the 2012 season at the age of 28, and there's no reason to not expect him to be an elite player again. He has tons of power as indicated by his career .250 ISO with this past season's number being .263. From a plate discipline standpoint, Braun has improved his EYE every single year of his ML career: .26/.33/.47/.53/.61, which certainly lowers his risk factor. Throw in the fact that Braun is 31 (a career high) for 37 in stolen base attempts, and he is certainly a lock for an early-mid 1st round pick.
Shane Victorino OF (PHI) - Victorino hit his 17th homer of the year yesterday and on a per game basis, he has been one of the best hitters in the NL this season. Victorino boasts a .289/.368/.511 batting line. As is common with players who have successful years, Victorino is enjoying quite the combination of power and patience, posting career highs in both ISO (.222) and EYE (.88). So, Victorino's surface statistics are far from a fluke. However, at the age of 31 you have to wonder if this is a career year for Victorino. Judging from his career numbers in ISO (.160) and EYE (.67) and considering Victorino's age, I think he's going to have a tough time maintaining both of these peripherals for another season. Most hitters experience a decent amount of percentage drop off in their statistics from their "career year" to their following season. Don't disrespect Victorino on draft day, but don't overpay either expected a full repeat of what you saw this year.
