NL Quick Pitch: Happy Opening Day! We get started reviewing some tidbits from last night's game. Josh Johnson struggled a bit by scattering 10 hits, but still got the QS despite earning the loss. The ongoing question with JJ will be whether he can last a full season without getting injured. After winning the NL batting title in 2011, Jose Reyes started the season right with a 2-for-4 last night. While he is a lock to repeat 100 runs scored, I expect him to drive-in more runs as well in a better lineup. Kyle Lohse flirted with a no hitter last night and took it no-hit bid into the 7th inning. He looked sharp in the 1st half of 2011 too, but ultimately regressed to his normal career levels. I expect the same for 2012. Most teams made their DL moves yesterday and Jorge De La Rosa was one of the names added by the Rockies. After undergoing Tommy John last May, De La Rosa is expected to return to action early this season, but I stay away from pitchers rehabbing like this. He'll be on a limited pitch count at a minimum and I'd expect some strength, velocity, and command issues as he regains form. Ted Lilly was also added to the DL with a neck injury, but the Dodgers don't need a 5th starter for a couple of weeks anyway. The injury isn't serious so expect to see him on (or around) April 14th. Staying the NL West, Carlos Quentin was added to the DL for the Padres. If he could just play more than 130 games once, we could see huge numbers from Quentin. When he returns, expect him to average an AB/HR close to his 3-year rate of 17.5. I don't think Petco will zap it too much with his kind of power. While Corey Hart has suffered through a knee problem this spring (and underwent surgery), he should be ready for opening day. Watch his playing time though as the Brewers will be careful not to aggravate the injury again. Ike Davis will have his lungs checked one last time to see if he has fully recovered from Valley Fever. Between the illness and the ankle injury, its been a tough twelve months for Davis. But he should be ready to go and if he can stay healthy, we could see him flirt with the 25-30 HR mark for a full season of work. Moving to position battles, the Reds announced that Jim Hannigan will get the opening day start, but expect to see rookie Devin Mesoraco split time in the beginning and ultimately win the job at some point during the season. Tulo was back in action yesterday and his elbow may be sore, but looks ok to begin the season. Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair has some back issues and is 50/50 for opening day. He put up huge numbers in Triple A, but a high K% that equaled to a strikeout for every 4.7 PA may mean trouble at the big level. Jason Motte hit 99mph on the gun last night and earned his first save of the season with 2 K's. He's a lower tier closer and could experience some issues this year, so be sure to have some closer support in case he can't hold down the job. His teammate David Freese got off to a hot start last night going 3-for-5, but an inflated BHIP% and a 2nd half regression could see a normalized average in 2012. Enjoy the first full day of games!
1. Josh Johnson (SP - Marlins) - Josh Johnson still has a few cobwebs and it showed last night as he scattered 10 hits and allowed 3 ER in 6 IP against the Cardinals on Opening Night in the new Marlins Park. It was still a Quality Start and gets him on the board, but he took the loss. He recorded 4 K's and allowed 2 BB's. We know the risk/reward with JJ. Last year he was on pace for a Cy-Young type of year, but the injury bug bit him again and he was shut down after just 60 IP. If he can stay healthy and get 30+ starts, he has ace-like stuff and could be a huge draft day gamble.
2. Jose Reyes (SS - Marlins) - After winning the batting title last season, Reyes picked up where he left off. He went 2-for-4 last night, breaking up Kyle Lohse's no-hit bid in the 7th inning and then leading off the 9th inning with a single to help spark a comeback rally (it never happened). For fantasy purposes, Reyes is ranked a consensus 3rd behind Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez, but at 28 he could just be entering his prime. A few things to consider for the season is his average may have been a bit inflated as his BHIP (.287) was well over his career average. But Reyes is almost a lock to hit over .300 and flirt with the 40 SB total. He is also moving to a new (and better) team that will keep him over the 100-run mark, but boost his RBI's by 15-20 over the season.
3. Kyle Lohse (SP - Cardinals) - Few would have predicted that Kyle Lohse would of have been the big story out of Wednesday night. Lohse flirted with a no-no through 6.0 IP before giving up a leadoff single to Jose Reyes in the 7th. He finished the night going 7.1 IP and allowing just 2 hits, 1 ER, no walks, and recording 3 K's to earn the first W of the year. Lohse started 2011 extremely well too, but then regressed in the 2nd half. In the 1st half of last season, Lohse posted a 3.32 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and an 8-6 record followed by a 2nd half of 3.53 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and a 6-2 record. We have enough historical evidence with Lohse to know that his opposing OBP of .291 and SLG of .390 in 2011 will likely regress to his career norm of .331 and .445 over the long haul. I wouldn't go crazy on the free agent wires for this one.
4. Shaun Marcum (SP - Brewers) - Marcum is slowly getting his pitch count up and saw his longest stint of spring training in Wednesday's game against the D-Backs. He didn't look that sharp, allowing 7 hits and 5 runs in 4.1 IP as he recovers from some shoulder issues. We'll see if the shoulder problems trickle into the regular season, but right now he's scheduled to make his first regular start on Monday against the Cubs and would follow-up his 2-start week against the Braves. I thin Marcum was a bit underrated in drafts with an ADP in the 15-16th rounds. He has posted three straight seasons with WHIPs of 1.16, 1.15, and 1.16 with a 3-year average K/9 of 7.3. He has back-to-back seasons of exactly 20 QS and has posted 60% QS% for the past 4 seasons. I think there's an up arrow here if the shoulder isn't serious (and it doesn't seem to be as he regains his strength).
5. Bryan LaHair (1B - Cubs) - Bryan LaHair made some big headlines with huge numbers in Triple-A last year. He hit .331/.405/.664 with 38 HR and 109 RBI for Iowa and has been promoted to the big league level at 29 years old. But just when he gets his chance, LaHair is now considered questionable for opening day as he has been suffering a back injury that could lay him up for a few days. If he gets the start and the back doesn't give him too many issues, LaHair could be a nice NL-only option for a weaker-than-normal 1B position in the NL. The big risk here is his high K%, striking out once for every 4.7 PA in the minors. You have to assume that will increase at the big league level which could lead to some extended slumps.
Follow us on Twitter all year: @Fantistics and @jribando
