1) Dillon Gee (SP, NYN) - Nine strikeout over seven innings against the Padres Friday night gave Gee a total of 52 strikeouts in 56.2 IP for the season. Gee's strikeout rate (8.3 K/9) is the best he's ever posted in the majors, and it appears to be a case of addition by subtraction. Gee has abandoned his slider in favor of a cutter, which he is throwing about 15 percent of the time. He's also throwing more curveballs while cutting back on his fastball/changeup combo. The change to his pitch mix has resulted in an improved groundball rate of 56.5 percent, a career high; yet, home runs have been an issue this season. He's allowed seven homers through nine starts for a rate of 1.13 HR/9. Six of the seven homers have come at Citi Field, where they moved the fences in over the winter, ostensibly to help the home team. The win was Gee's first at Citi Field this season, where prior to Friday's game he was 0-3 in four starts with an ERA of 7.33 vs. 3.76 on the road.
2) Lucas Duda (OF/1B, NYN) - Duda homered against Padres pitcher Anthony Bass Friday night. His fifth homer of the season was his first since April 28, a span of 84 plate appearances. He's not hitting as many fly balls as he has in previous years; his flyball rate is just 33.3 percent, down about 25 percent from last year. On the flipside, his Line Drive rate is high at 27.8 percent, something that has helped him maintain his .265 average and .337 BABIP despite his 24 percent strikeout rate. It's a bit disappointing that his power is down; his ISO (.116) is considerably lower than last season (.189). However, he is handling left-handed pitching well so far (.292 BA vs. LHP), something that has been an issue in the past.
3) Bryan LaHair (1B/OF, CHN) - It was virtually impossible for LaHair to maintain a .390 batting average, but give him credit; he made the fun last for 32 games. LaHair went 0 for 4 Friday night against the Pirates, his third consecutive hitless game. Since going 4 for 4 back on May 14, LaHair has gone just 2 for 32 (.063), and since finishing the month of April with a .390 average he's batted .243 (17 for 70). Overall, his batting average has dropped 80 points to .243, largely because his BABIP in May has been .273, well below the .600 BABIP he put up in April. His contact rate (72.5 percent) has been slowly sinking over the last few weeks while his O-Swing (34.8 percent) and Swinging Strike rate (12 percent) have spiked. LaHair has maintained a solid walk rate (14.5 percent) but his strikeout rate is rapidly increasing (30.3 percent) with the erosion of his plate discipline. Even with all that bad news, he is likely to work through it and return to productive hitting. It's just a question of how long it will take.
4) Tony Campana (OF, CHC) - Campana didn't get the start Friday night, but he was inserted as a pinch-runner in the seventh inning and he stole second base. It was Campana's 13th stolen base in 15 attempts, an 87 percent success rate. As long as Cubs prospect Brett Jackson continues to struggle at Triple-A, where he's putting up a disappointing .235/.326/.428 line, Campana will be the everyday centerfielder. So far, he's embraced his opportunity, batting .302 with a .355 OBP, and playing solid defense in the outfield. His average is supported by a .394 BABIP, which he probably cannot maintain, although, it's not out of the question for a contact hitter (83.7 percent Contact rate) of his ilk with a history of high BABIPs at several professional levels. Still, Campana's Fantasy value is limited to the stolen base and batting average categories. Since the Cubs don't score much neither will Campana, and his complete lack of power ensures he won't drive many runs in either.
5)Johnny Cueto (SP, CIN) - Cueto was roughed up by the Rockies Friday night. He surrendered five runs on 11 hits over four and two-thirds innings, walking two and striking out three. He gave up a home run for the third consecutive game. Cueto's velocity still appears to be down a little over a mile per hour, and as a result his Swinging Strike rate (6.5 percent) is at a career low while his Contact rate (85.4 percent) has risen to a career high. His strikeout rate is still low (5.77 K/9) and if we believe his xFIP (3.93) he is not pitching as well as his 2.53 ERA would make it seem. Given that he's pitched poorly in two of his last three outings, it may be time to sell-high on Cueto. His metrics are trending in the wrong direction. Add to that an unsustainably high 83.3 percent Strand rate and he's almost certain to be on his way towards a major regression.
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