James Shields (SP-TB)- Shields earned his seventh loss of the season on Thursday against the Orioles after struggling through six innings of work. He allowed five runs on six hits and five walks, but he did strikeout 10 opposing hitters while seeing his ERA increase to 4.52. Despite the higher ERA, Shields DIPS indicate that he is pitching better than his numbers would indicate. His strikeout rate of 8.78 K/9 is a career best, and he has been hurt by an above average BABIP (.340) and below average strand rate (68.9 percent) for most of the season. Despite the higher BABIP, Shields is putting together a stronger year of batted ball rates with a career best 53.7 percent ground ball rate and a line drive rate similar to last season. I expect his HR/FB ratio of 14.8 percent to regress back to his 11.9 percent rate by the end of the season. There is still reason to believe he can finish the season with an ERA below 4.00 if he can finally get some breaks in his direction.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B/DH-TOR)- Encarnacion went 2-for-4 with a home run, a strikeout, two runs scored and three RBI to help lead the Blue Jays to a 10-4 victory over the A's. The home run was his 27th of the season, and he was able to improve his slash line to .299/.393/.591 to go along with his nine stolen bases. With a career best 18.4 percent HR/FB and a 50 percent fly ball rate (both coming into Thursday's game), Encarnacion has been able to put up career best power numbers (.293 ISO) and should finish the season just short of 40 home runs. He has always had this type of ability as evident in his brief seasons with the Reds in 2005 and 2006 because of his ability to hit the ball in the air (career fly ball rate of 45.5 percent). With his career best stolen base total, Encarnacion has become a fantasy MVP this season. His 19.6 percent infield hit rate might indicate that his batting average is a little inflated, but even then he should finish the season with something close to a .285 average.
Chris Perez (RP-CLE)- Perez recorded his 29th save of the season on Thursday night against the Indians after throwing a scoreless inning in which he struck out two, but allowed a walk and a hit. Perez started the season as one closer likely lo lose his job, but has turned out to be one of most reliable this season. His 2.82 ERA might not look much different from his 3.32 from last year, but his 2.07 FIP and 2.97 xFIP indicate his 2012 campaign is his best season yet. His 10.33 K/9 is the second best strikeout rate of his career, but Perez has really succeeded in cutting his walk rate to a career best 1.88 BB/9. Furthermore, he has shown an ability to produce a 5 percent HR/FB ratio over the last three seasons, but his ability to produce a career best 40 percent ground ball rate has cut down on his home runs. Perez should be able keep his ERA in this range for the rest of the season, as I only expect his walk rate to see some regression over the last two months.
Jason Vargas (SP-SEA)- Vargas had one of his best outings of the season last night against the Royals improving his record to 11-7 for the year. He allowed just one run on one hit and three walks while striking out five in eight innings of work. Despite pitching well over his last few starts, Vargas is someone owners should probably stay clear of as a full time starter. He has clearly benefitted from a .245 BABIP and an 80.5 percent strand rate for most of the season, and his peripherals have improved despite his lowest swinging strike since joining the Mariners (7 percent) and his lowest zone and first pitch strike percentages since 2009. His value lies when he is starting at home where he has a 2.60 ERA/3.50 FIP/3.52 xFIP compared to his 4.67/5.92/5.03 numbers on the road. Considering he is on a pace to allow more than 30 home runs even while pitching in Safeco Field, he is more than likely in for some rough patches ahead.
Eric Hosmer (1B-KC)- Hosmer went hitless with two strikeouts in the plate appearances against the Mariners on Thursday night. He is now hitting a meager .230/.302/.365 with nine home runs and ten stolen bases in 394 plate appearances this season, and it does not look as if he is improving. Hosmer was one of my picks this year to have a huge season, as I stated he should produce a top-10 type of season for a first baseman. I did not anticipate he would see his ground ball rate increase from 49.7 to 54.2 percent along with a four point drop in his fly ball rate. His plate discipline has improved from his rookie season, as he now has a nine percent walk rate, but he will not be much of help until he starts to get the ball into the air. His .253 BABIP is unlucky, but his batted ball rates are not doing him any favors. Hosmer has not hit a home run since June, and he has been striking out at a 26.1 percent clip this month (15 percent for the season). I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see Hosmer some time in the near future, as it looks as if he is totally overmatched during this month.
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