AL Player Notes - July 16, 2012

Josh Beckett - Boston's Josh Beckett yielded 3 ER on 8 hits against the Rays on Sunday. He also struck out 7 and allowed 2 free passes. For the season, Beckett's numbers are pedestrian - 4.44 ERA, 6.80 strikeout rate and 1.23 WHIP. However, Beckett did have a solid June as he tossed 21 innings over three starts, allowing a 3.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP before getting bombed in his only July outing. The problem for Beckett is that he simply isn't missing as many bats this season. After posting a whiff rate above 8.00 in 2011, Beckett's rate has dropped by about 1.2 batters per game. With a 68% strand rate, he also hasn't been as lucky as he was a season ago. While his xFIP is lower than his ERA - indicating Beckett should post better numbers in the second half - this is a guy that is more name than value in fantasy baseball. You can probably find similar pitchers on the waiver wire for now.

Casey Janssen - Bad news for Sergio Santos' fantasy owners - the closer is done for the season as the Blue Jays announced he'll have labrum surgery. What this means is that Casey Janssen should continue to be the closer for Toronto for the remainder of 2012. Janssen, who was unavailable on Sunday due to pitching in back-to-back games, has pitched very well in the 9th inning since taking over for Santos. Janssen has converted 13 of 14 opportunities and is striking out just over a batter per inning while walking just a batter per game. He owns a 2.21 ERA and 2.86 xFIP in 36 2/3 innings. Considering Janssen recorded a 3.02 xFIP in 2011, it's very reasonable to expect him to continue to maintain much of his current success. He is definitely a must-own in any league format.

Jarrod Parker - One of my favorite regression-to-the-mean candidates, Jarrod Parker faced the Twins on Sunday and allowed 4 ER on 9 hits while striking out 4. After Sunday's start, Parker now owns a 3.07 ERA, but his peripheral stats indicate he won't maintain that mark for long. Parker's walk rate is over 4.00 and his strikeout-to-walk mark is a paltry 1.73. He touts a 4.29 xFIP and has enjoyed a 76% strand rate and .271 BABIP to go along with a so-so 40% GB rate. All told, in one year leagues Parker is a great sell high candidate and in keeper leagues he holds a ceiling as a fantasy No. 4 SP down the road.

Carlos Santana - The Indians' catcher continues to struggle and it's getting to the point that I'm concerned he may not turn it around in 2012. He went 1-for-3 with a walk on Sunday against Toronto. After hitting .262 with 3 HRs and a .417 OBP in April, Santana hit just .233 in May. In late May, he suffered a concussion against the White Sox and, while this is just speculation, it seems the catcher hasn't fully recovered as he hit only .162 with a .221 SLG% in June. Santana has always had more value in OBP leagues because of his excellent EYE, but a .333 SLG% and 5 HRs through mid-July just doesn't cut it. Santana's ISO is only .111 and he isn't approaching his ABs in a good way - chasing pitches and too often getting his weight out on his front foot. All Santana's fantasy owners can do is hope he turns it around, but right now he should be benched in all league formats.

James Shields - James Shields got crushed by the Red Sox on Sunday, allowing 6 ER in just 5 innings. Shields' season ERA is now 4.44, one season after he posted a 2.82 mark. The interesting thing is that Shields' xFIP has been consistent during the past 3 seasons as he's recorded marks of 3.55, 3.25 and 3.47. This year, he's been bitten by mostly bad luck - his strand rate is 69% and his BABIP is .344. Otherwise, Shields' whiff and walk rates are right in line with his 2011 season and he's giving up just a couple more HRs this year. Looking at the peripheral stats, Shields is a good buy-low right now and someone who should experience positive regression in his coming starts.

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