Donovan Solano- MIA- Stats- Solano ended a 5-game hitting streak by going 0-for-2 with a sac fly yesterday. His .293 average in 73 games this year is very luck dependent. He has a .347 BABIP and has followed his .354 mark in August with a high .324 BABIP so far this month. He only has 4 extra base hits in his 41 hits in August and September, so he is really a player waiting for a crash due to regression to the mean.
Mat Latos- CIN- Hot- Latos picked up his 8th quality start in his last 9 outings, giving up 3 runs in 6 IP on 5 hits while striking out 5. He was uncharacteristically wild, walking 4 batters and throwing balls on 45 of his 106 pitches. Six of these starts have come at home, where Latos has a 3.53 ERA. He hasn't suffered from losing Petco as his home park, partially due to good luck. His home FIP is 4.52 as he has enjoyed a .255 BABIP in Great American Ballpark. This has counterbalanced his bad luck on the road where he has a 3.36 FIP compared to a 4.00 ERA. If fortune normalizes next year, the net effect will be not much different than his results this season.
Jordan Lyles- HOU- FYI- I'm not sure where the Astros' official site is getting their numbers, but Fangraphs has Lyles' GB% at 54.2% this season, up from 40.8% last season. Still a marked increase, but both numbers are below what was reported on the Astros's site. The increased GB% has helped keep Lyles' numbers from being worse than they are. What has killed him is an increased HR/9 of 1.52, up from 1.34. Since his HR/FB ratio jumped from 12.2% to 17.1% if he wasn't inducing as many ground balls as he has his ERA would be even higher than the 5.55 he currently owns. He has been especially homer-prone on the road, with a HR/FB of 20.7% and HR/9 of 1.89. Last season, Lyles' trends were reversed so this might be a statistical aberration. Still, heading into 2013, his tendency to give up long balls over the past two seasons is a concern.
Wade LeBlanc- MIA- Stats- LeBlanc has shown some signs of being a backwards southpaw, one who handles righthanded hitters better than lefthanded. This season his power numbers are certainly backwards as he has allowed 5 homers in 16 IP against lefties and is yet to give one up to a righthanded hitter in 42 IP. This sort of imbalance has been seen before as he allowed 2 homers in 9.1 IP to lefties in 2009 and 2 homers in 5.2 IP to lefties in 2008. Lefties also have a higher batting average against him in every season since 2009. There may be some sample size skewing going on here as he still faces mostly righthanded batters and his results overall have been solid. LeBlanc hasn't been able to translate minor league strikeout success to the major league level, with a 5.74 K/9 in 58 IP following a 5.76 in 79.2 IP last year. That is his major drawback as a potential fantasy sleeper for 2013.
Bryan Morris- PIT- Rookie- Morris was called up briefly earlier this year but didn't get into a game. He has been called up again with a much better chance of making his major league debut. At AAA this season Morris pitched 81 innings of relief in 46 games, posting a 2.56 ERA and picking up 5 saves. He had a K/9 of 8.78 and BB/9 of 1.89. Morris has made the transition from starter to reliever and has thrived. He could be a prime setup man in 2013 and has a shot as a closer sleeper.
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