I had an interesting day in the daily fantasy world yesterday, getting absolutely crushed on a couple of sites - that's what I get for not taking Drew Dinkmeyer's play of the day, Freddie Freeman - but redeeming myself on other sites. If possible, it is good to play multiple sites as it allows you to diversify a little bit and take guys where they are most undervalued. For example, I was able to work Gerardo Parra in on a few sites (those that I won) but not on others (those that I lost), and likewise for one of Drew's impressive value plays - Jed Lowrie. Back to the grind today, though, as you need a short memory in daily fantasy. It's all about finding the smart value plays on each site and realizing if you do that, you will be successful more times than not.
Before we get into today's recommendations, it is important to remind everyone to understand your scoring format and the pricing of the individual players on the site you're playing. These vary from site to site and all daily sites price their players differently, which could make someone a must start on one site but not another. In the space below I will break down the best and worst plays by position and make notes as to which type of formats to utilize players. If you are new to the daily fantasy baseball scene, there are daily fantasy websites which offer one day contests. These contests are mostly salary cap games where you can take any players you want as long as you stay under the cap and meet the positional requirements and all are points-based (not roto). Please feel free to e-mail me at mleone@fantistics.com if you have any further questions regarding daily fantasy baseball.
Catcher
Best Play
Carlos Santana (CLE) - Entering the season I went out on a limb and predicted Carlos Santana would finish the year as the #1 catcher. With that in mind and the fact that he is moderately priced on most sites, I'll be playing him almost everywhere today. He goes up against Mark Buehrle who only strikes out 12.5% of right handed batters. This game has the highest betting total of the day at 9 runs. Santana also hits much better from the right side of the plate with an impressive career wOBA of .372 when facing LHP.
If Price Doesn't Matter...
Joe Mauer (MIN) - Mauer faces off against Rick Porcello today and their respective skill types combine to make this a really strong matchup for Mauer. Porcello does not strike out very many lefties (12.5%) and allows a lot of line drives (21.3%) and ground balls (48.4%). As a result, lefties are hitting .315 off of Porcello the last three seasons. Mauer has an absurd career .401 wOBA against RHP and BA of .338 thanks to a low K% (9.1%) and a lot of line drives (24.3%). Basically Mauer's strengths matchup with Porcello's weaknesses making Mauer one of the more likely bets on the day to post a multi-hit game. The problem with Mauer is he is priced very strongly on most sites, so use your best judgment here.
Sneaky Play
John Jaso (OAK) - You should only play Jaso on sites where he is cheaply-moderately price, and I have seen a few, particularly those that do not take into account splits. He goes up against rookie Brandon Maurer who is right handed, and Jaso dominates RHP. He had the second highest wOBA in MLB against RHP last year with a whopping .401 mark. On top of that, Oakland has been hitting him second in the lineup against righties, so again if you are on a site where Jaso is amongst the cheapest (or even middle of the pack) catchers and want to utilize more money elsewhere, make him the play.
First Base
Value Play
Mark Reynolds (CLE) - This is a good matchup for Reynolds who is underpriced on a lot of sites. He is going up against soft tossing lefty Mark Buehrle in Toronto. Reynolds does his most damage against finesse pitchers (according to Baseball-Reference), posting a career .911 OPS against these types of pitchers. With K and BB rates both well the MLB average, Buehrle certainly qualifies as a finesse pitcher. Adding to the reasons I like Reynolds is his career .250 ISO against LHP and the Rogers Centre rating as one of the better ballparks for right handed power. He's a solid value play and someone to target in GPP's as well due to his multi-HR upside.
Eric Hosmer (KC) - Hosmer is someone I expect to have a strong bounce back year, so naturally I feel he is underpriced on a lot of sites. On top of that, I really like this matchup for him. He goes up against Gavin Floyd who yields 1.43 HR/9 against LHB and a .341 wOBA. In his career Hosmer has a .341 wOBA against RHP and an OPS more than 200 points higher than he has against LHP. Fangraphs also has US Cellular Field as the 5th best place for lefties to hit a HR - a huge improvement upon Hosmer's home park.
Try to Make Room For
Joey Votto (CIN) - Power wise Votto struggled when he returned from injury last year which leaves his salary relatively depressed on some sites. He goes up against Joe Blanton today. Blanton is extremely HR prone (1.31/9 to LHB last 3 years) and pitching in Cincinnati (a top 5 park for hitting HR's) will not help that. Votto has a career .422 wOBA against RHP. The only reason he is not my top play of the day is because I like the value that Hosmer and Reynolds give, and on some sites it's hard to work in more than one 1B. I guess you could consider him top play #1B today.
Second Base
I am not in love with any of the 2B plays today so I may pay up for either Robinson Cano or Dustin Pedroia who play in a hitter's park in Yankee stadium and both are facing opposite handed pitchers. One guy that sticks out to me as underpriced is Howie Kendrick. He has been hitting 6th in a loaded Angels' lineup and is generally underpriced as a result of a down year in 2012. Be aware that the matchup isn't great, though, as Bronson Arroyo is really good against RHB (.285 wOBA allowed past three years).
Watch the lineup card for...
Ryan Raburn (CLE) - Unfortunately this is a later game, so it's probably too much of a risk if you are playing at a site that locks lineups early. However, I would not be totally shocked to see Raburn get a start for the Indians. He had a really strong Spring (what's new?), and Terry Francona sounded excited to have him as a bench bat. With the Indians facing a lefty in Buehrle, Francona could give Raburn the start as he has shown a lot of power against LHP over his career, posting a .216 ISO. He is probably dirt cheap on most sites, and as I mentioned before, the Cleveland-Toronto game is the highest projected scoring game of the day. If you don't hear any news out of Cleveland or any comments from Francona indicating my hunch is correct, it's best to avoid this though as it's too risky to have Raburn locked in your lineup just hoping he plays.
Shortstop
Man, I just do not like my middle infield options today. Again at SS, there's no splits play that I absolutely love so I will likely take my chances with a cheaper, low risk play that goes up against a poor starting pitcher. Kind of like...
Jhonny Peralta (DET) - Peralta is in the middle to bottom priced SS's on most sites. While there's no splits play to take advantage of here, Peralta hits righties almost as well as lefties, and his opponent Mike Pelfrey has a career ERA of 4.36 and is pitching in the AL for the first time in his career. Pelfrey does not K too many guys (12.9% for his career) meaning Peralta should be able to put the ball in play, which sounds silly but when you consider the Tigers are -140 favorites in this game with an over/under of 8.5, that might be enough to get one base and score or drive home a run.
Obviously if you can fit in Jose Reyes do so, as he is the #1 fantasy SS in action today and leading off for the Blue Jays (a -160 favorite) and the total for the game is 9. Nothing about the matchup, however, screams pay up to me. On most sites I will just throw Peralta out there and save my money for other positions.
Asdrubal Cabrera is also reasonably priced on most sites with an okay matchup.
Third Base
Strong Value Play
Todd Frazier (CIN) - Frazier definitely hits for a higher BA against lefties, but he still hits for power against RHP posting a .215 ISO against them last season, including 18 HR in 390 at bats. Hitting at home in his hitter's park against Joe Blanton (highest wOBA allowed to RHB of any pitcher in action today, 1.38 HR/9), Frazier has a higher probability than normal of going yard.
High Risk/High Reward
Will Middlebrooks (BOS) - I'm going back to the well on my Middlebrooks pick from Opening Day for the same reasons - he is underpriced on some sites, hits for a lot of power against lefties and is hitting in a ballpark that inflates offense. This time around he draws Andy Pettitte rather than CC Sabathia, which is good for Middlebrooks as Pettitte's .328 wOBA allowed to RHB is the second worst over the last 3 years of all the starters in action today. Middlebrooks is a risk though due to his shaky plate discipline and Pettitte's GB ability. He's probably more of a GPP play than a core guy, depending on where sites have him priced.
If David Wright fits salary wise, he goes up againt Eric Stults who struggles against RHB, and Wright has an enormous .423 career wOBA against LHP.
Outfield
Play of the Day
Josh Hamilton - I'm a little worried about Hamilton this year, but today's matchup is nearly perfect for him. He is hitting in a hitter's park in Cinci against RHP Bronson Arroyo who has extreme splits. Over the last 3 years Arroyo has given up an insane 1.84 HR/9 to LHB. Hamilton posts much better plate discipline numbers against RHP and has a career .403 wOBA against them. He is expensive on most sites but a slight step down from the top, top guys, meaning you should be able to fit him in without punting any other positions. He's a guy I am going to try to play everywhere today.
Value Plays
Alex Gordon (KC) - This play is a result of multiple things working together. In general, I feel Gordon is underpriced. In the preseason I called for him to hit 20 or more homers as I feel some small increases in both loft and HR/FB rate are coming his way. He has always done way more damage against RHP (.826 OPS) than LHP (.699 OPS). He is facing Gavin Floyd today who has allowed LHB a .334 wOBA over the past three years and has given up 1.21 HR/9 to LHB and 1.22 HR/9 at home (career).
Alejandro de Aza (CHW) - De Aza is a player I expect to take a step forward this year, and it's always nice when someone you feel is underpriced has a good matchup. de Aza faces Jeremy Guthrie who has allowed a .347 wOBA to LHB the past 3 seasons. de Aza hits RHP better than LHP as do most lefties, and although he has little power, the power he does have comes against RHP (12 of 13 career HR). You are taking de Aza though because of his .285 BA against lefties and the fact that he is hitting leadoff today for a team that is a good bet to score a handful of run batting against Guthrie (5.10 FIP last year) in one of the best ballparks for offense.
Chris Heisey (CIN) - Heisey is filling in for the injured Ryan Ludwick, and is very cheap on a lot of sites. He faces Joe Blanton in Cincinnati today, which we've already covered in a few other player blurbs. It should be noted that even though this is a R/R matchup, that's not a bad thing for Heisey who has a career .275/.331/.460 triple slash against RHP compared to a .214/.272/.376 line against LHP.
Shin-Soo Choo (see all the bad things I've already said about Blanton) is a solid value play as well.
Super Salary Relief
Marlon Byrd (NYM) - Byrd is hitting fifth for the Mets and is going up against LHP Eric Stults who posted a 5.05 xFIP against RHB in 78 IP last season. Byrd is by no means that good of a hitter but given that he is near the minimum salary on several sites, the amount of other expensive hitting plays I like, and Stults' difficulties with RHB, he makes for a decent salary saver play today and is not a complete throwaway.
If You Have Room...
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) - McCutchen has a pretty laughable .416 career wOBA against LHP, and that is where most of his power comes from (.244 ISO compared to .178 against RHP). He has a good matchup today to utilize that power as opposing LHP Travis Wood gives up a ton of line drives (22.6 LD%) and a whopping amount of fly balls (47.1 FB%). He will obviously be priced pretty heavily on a lot of sites (Hamilton was cheaper on the several sites I checked) which prevents McCutchen from being labeled a must play.
Starting Pitcher
Safe Play
Jordan Zimmermann (WAS) - The Marlins are just throwing out some really bad lineups. Placido Polanco is hitting cleanup. I know I mentioned that on Opening Day, but I want to make sure it sinks in with you. The Marlins' lineup has gotten worse, and it's not like it was all that special last year as they had the 24th worst wOBA in MLB against RHP and 27th worst overall in the season's second half. Zimmermann may not have huge K potential today, but he's unlikely to get shelled and with the Nationals being by far the biggest favorite on the docket today, is a good bet to register a win.
Value Play
AJ Griffin (OAK) - The Mariners were dead last by a longshot in wOBA against RHP last year, and Griffin (being a fly ball pitcher - just a 37.5 GB rate) is built to pitch in the Coliseum. Last season, Griffin gave up just .86 HR/9 at home compared to 1.34 on the road. Overall, he allowed just a .253 wOBA at home. While Griffin did experience some BABIP luck at home, this start is setup for him to be successful.
Risky Cheap Play
Rick Porcello (DET) - I really don't like throwing low K rate guys like Porcello, but given the way I see things playing out today (like a lot of expensive hitters, not a ton of great SP matchups) I may save the cap room and use Porcello as a secondary pitcher on sites where you can play multiple SP's. I'm also hoping he can finally find a way to miss more bats as the scouts have always seemed to believe he can, and he did this Spring Training (although I still remain skeptical). It's also not a bad matchup for Porcello as the Twins finished 21st in wOBA against RHP last year, and their ballpark is very pitcher friendly.
With the hitting I like today, I probably won't pay up for the day's two best starters, Kris Medlen and Cliff Lee. They square off against one another so it's tough to guage who has a better shot at the win. Plus, both seem to be priced appropriately meaning there's not a ton of value to be had here. The Phillies were 13th in MLB last year against RHP, and those numbers are missing a lot of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Domonic Brown at bats (all LHB). The Braves did struggle against LHP last year, but they've added Justin Upton (.383 career wOBA against LHP) and his brother BJ Upton (career .349 wOBA against LHP).
One last thing to keep in mind:
Washington Lefties - On sites that take into account splits when pricing, there may be an opportunity to fit some cheap, or cheaper than they should be, Nationals' lefties. The reason for this is the Nationals go up against left handed Wade Leblanc who actually has some odd reverse splits. Since 2010, he is allowing LHB a whopping .387 wOBA and 1.41 HR/9. I might not be going out of my way to get in a Harper or a LaRoche, but if they are underpriced due to the L/L matchup I'll take my shot.
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