Jose Fernandez - In a great matchup of two young, promising starting pitchers, Jose Fernandez faced off against Matt Harvey on Monday. Fernandez finished the game with a final line of 4 innings, 3 hits, 4 strikeouts, 3 walks and 2 ER. He now owns an 8.63 K/9 and 4.50 ERA (although his xFIP is 3.72, indicating Fernandez has been a bit unlucky to date). I'm not certain if the K/9 is sustainable because Fernandez owns a swinging strike percentage of just 7.1%, which is below league average. On the other hand, I am impressed by the right hander's ability to induce ground balls as evidenced by his 52% GB rate. The 20-year old will continue to be inconsistent this season, but it's clear the stuff of a future big league No. 2 is there. For now, he's a spot starter in deeper leagues.
Julio Teheran - Coming off his best start against the Rockies in Colorado, Julio Teheran faced the Nationals on Monday and yielded 2 ER on 10 hits over 5 1/3 innings. He struck out 5 and walked 1. Teheran entered Monday's start with a 1.96 HR/9 mark and 17% HR/FB rate, so he's clearly been struggling to keep the ball in the yard. He was also not missing bats as evidenced by his 14% strikeout percentage and 8.8% swinging strike rate (league average is 9.2%). Still, we know there's a learning curve with all starting pitchers, and considering Teheran is only 22-years old, I'm not surprised he has been far from effective in the first month of 2013. Looking ahead, I'm watching to see if Teheran can make progress in improving his whiff rate, while lowering his HR rate and maintaining his currently solid 46% GB mark. The youngster takes on the Mets in his next start.
Stephen Strasburg -Stephen Strasburg entered Monday's start against the Braves with the same ERA as he finished with last season: 3.16. However, the right hander hasn't been as effective in 2013 as he was in 2012. On Monday, Strasburg pitched 6 innings, allowed 2 ER, struck out 8 and walked 4. He now owns a 3.13 ERA and 3.54 xFIP this season in 37 1/3 innings. Strasburg isn't missing as many bats in 2013, seeing his K/9 drop from 11.13 in 2012 to 8.68. His swinging strike percentage has also fallen from 11.2% to 8.9% prior to last night's outing. The good news is that while batters aren't swinging and missing as much, they are making significantly more contact on pitches outside the strike zone (68% in 2013 compared to 55% in 2012). Much of this contact is likely weak, which is partly why Strasburg has maintained a solid ERA despite missing fewer bats. At the end of the day, Strasburg's walk, HR and GB rates are all in line with his 2012 marks, so there's no reason to be concerned. I expect the strikeout totals to rise in the coming weeks.
Wandy Rodriguez - Wandy Rodriguez came into Monday's start against the Brewers with a 2-0 record and 1.66 ERA. On Monday, Rodriguez gave up 7 ER on 6 hits over 3 2/3 innings while striking out 2 and walking 4. I've always been a fan of Rodriguez, who is usually underrated in fantasy leagues. However, he's being overrated in 2013. For starters, Rodriguez has seen his K/9 drop for 4 straight seasons while he posted just a 16% strikeout percentage in 2012 (down from 20% in 2011). Meanwhile, the lefty's xFIP rose to 3.72 in 2011 and 4.09 in 2012 - the highest it's been for Rodriguez since 2007. Last season, Rodriguez also yielded a 1.18 HR/9 and walked 3.25 batters per game, which was his highest mark since 2006. All those signs pointed to Rodriguez continuing to regress in 2013, but he's bucked the trend by keeping his HR rate under 1.00 prior to Monday, inducing more grounders (51% GB rate) and lowering his LD rate to just 11%. However, while all those are good signs, Rodriguez won't maintain a strong performance if he doesn't improve his 6.7% swinging strike percentage and his BABIP and strand rate won't stay at .200 and 77% forever. This is a prime sell high pitcher, although Monday's outing really hurt his value. Considering the trends on Rodriguez's performance the past few years, I wouldn't even ask for a ton in return for him because my fear is he'll become a spot starter, at best, by season's end.
Yovani Gallardo - Yovani Gallardo tossed 7 innings, allowed 1 ER and struck out 5 against the Pirates on Monday. For the season, Gallardo now owns a 4.25 ERA and 4.07 xFIP. He's struggling to miss bats as evidenced by his 5.50 K/9, 13% strikeout percentage and 6.0% swinging strike percentage. While this lack of whiffs is frustrating to the Brewers and Gallardo's fantasy owners, it's also likely a temporary issue. Gallardo has been very consistent the past few seasons in striking out batters, tallying strikeout percentages between 23%-25% and posting K/9 marks right around 9.00. Additionally, Gallardo is walking fewer batters and yielding fewer HRs in 2013 than in the past few seasons. I expect to see Gallardo's performance revert back to his career norms soon and view his current performance as mostly due to small sample size.
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