Clay Buchholz- After his first 7 starts of the season, fantasy owners are probably fairly frustrated with Clay Buchholz. His 6.44 ERA and 15.8% K Rate pale in comparison to his 2013 numbers, and he does not even seem like an asset that should be owned in mixed league formats, never mind a foundation piece for a fantasy roster. With Buchholz situation, there is a good news, bad news approach. In an effort to be positive, we will start with the good news. There is really no reason not to expect Buchholz's ERA to regress closer to his career norms as his 6.44 ERA is not in line with his 4.04 FIP or 4.29 xFIP. This is especially evident when his BABIP against is .375, which is significantly higher than what his past sample size indicates it should be. A regression in his singles percentage should help his WHIP so we should see both ration categories become more useful for fantasy owners over the coming weeks. That's the good news. The bad news is that Buchholz's numbers are in line with his two "full" season campaigns in 2010 and 2012. In both those seasons, Buchholz struck out less than 17% of the batters he faced, accumulated ERA's in the mid-to-high 4's and walked between 8-9% of batters. Nothing about those numbers spells anything but a rotational, match-up option in most fantasy formats. In 2014, batters are making more contact off of Buchholz, his fastball velocity is currently down almost a full MPH and he is generating a Swinging Strike Rate almost a full point below his 2013 numbers. There just isn't a lot here to be really excited about moving forward for fantasy owners. He can be utilized as a match-up play or in two-start weeks, but he is not an every start pitcher at this point. It seems like 2013 may have been more of him dominating a small sample size than turning the corner into a dominating pitcher.
Robbie Ray- A friend asked me to do a Robbie Ray write-up in relation to how the Doug Fister trade has panned out for both teams. Obviously, this isn't the space for too much winner/loser trade talk (and given Fister has only just returned from injury its probably an incomplete grade to all involved), but I will go ahead and give an idea of what I see from Ray. First, Ray's promotion was more a matter of necessity than him showing that he was ready for the big leagues. His biggest attribute, the strikeout, has yet to flash the way it did during 2013. Ray had a K Rate of 18.3% in Triple-A and 16.3% through his first 2 starts with the Tigers. This is a pitcher who struck out 160 batters in 142 IP in the minors last season so these K Rates are unusually low. It may be an adjustment phase as he moves through the upper-levels of the game although his velocity is a bit concerning. Several scouting reports had Ray's velocity sitting in the 93-94 MPH range during 2013. During his first two starts for the Tigers, he is averaging 90.8 MPH. Ray has struggled with maintaining his velocity throughout his career, but with the current glut of Tommy John injuries, any drastic decrease in velocity is worrisome. At this point, Ray doesn't have much fantasy value to me. He isn't striking batters out with the frequency to make a real dent, and he will be bullpen or Triple-A bound when Anibal Sanchez returns from the Disabled List, which, according to all reports, will be this Sunday against the Red Sox.
Brett Lawrie- Has the transformation finally happened? That's what anyone who has owned Brett Lawrie over the last three seasons has to be wondering. Has that fantastic power profile that was on display in 2011 finally blossomed? Three weeks ago, I called holding Lawrie a "fool's errand". Clearly, I feel like the fool as his nonexistent power has resurfaced. Right now, the indicators are very good that Lawrie is beginning to turn the corner as a legitimate power option with 2nd and 3rd base eligibility in most leagues. Lawrie's contact rates are all within a reasonable deviation from his personal means (with the exception of his Line Drive Rate, which we will get to in a minute). The question will be: can he maintain his 18.9% HR/FB ratio, which would provide fantasy owners with an elite power presence at either position? While HR/FB varies more than most statistics, it is reasonable to believe that Lawrie is finally healthy and is coming into his strength at age 24. Certainly, he plays in a division where hitting the ball out isn't going to be the task it would be if he say played in the NL West or AL West. To add to what seems to be a developing power profile is the fact that Lawrie's batting average is in line for a positive regression for fantasy owners. His .231 BABIP is well off his career mean and is most likely being driven down by a 13.4% Line Drive Rate which is also off his career averages. It is within reason to believe that Lawrie could maintain his power while his batting average regresses closer to the .250-.260 hitter he has been in the past. At this point, there is a fair expectation that Lawrie will reach the 20 HR mark with 2nd base eligibility while hitting for a reasonable average. If his HR/FB rate continues at this pace, he may even surpass that mark. He is currently owned in only 87% of Yahoo standard fantasy leagues, and I can't imagine what the other 13% are waiting for at this point. His eligibility and power provide excellent value at this point in the season.
Brett Gardner- In my continuing pieces on guys named Brett this week, let's take a look at Brett Gardner. Last year, Gardner disappointed fantasy owners with his lack of speed production. In his previous two full seasons, Gardner had stolen 47 and 49 bases respectively. In 2013, he managed only 24 steals while showing deteriorating plate patience (increased Swinging Strike Rate, increased K Rate, decreased BB Rate). The good news for fantasy owners is that the speed appears to be back to close to pre-injury levels. The bad news is that the plate patience is not, at all. His BB Rate is down to 7.1%, which is a four year low. His K Rate is 25.7%, which is a four year high. His speed remains a valuable tool, but it is limited by his inability to get on base. He is still a good bet to steal around 25-30 bases this season, but he won't ever get back to the 40+ club unless he starts getting on base with more consistency.Gardner still has value as a player who will score runs and steal bases, but expectations need to be altered unless he rediscovers his plate patience.
Carlos Beltran- News was released on Tuesday that Carlos Beltran is suffering from a bone spur in his right elbow. This isn't very good news for the Yankees' right fielder/designated hitter as in-season surgery to repair the elbow could be examined if pain does not subside with treatment. Beltran has mirrored most of his statistics from 2013 with the Cardinals. In fact, his K Rate, BB Rate and ISO are almost identical through 33 games in 2014. He has struggled with his average due to a .240 BABIP and a depressed 14.7% Line Drive Rate. Both of these numbers should take a positive regression towards his career averages over the course of the larger sample of the season. However, this bone spur issue could jeopardize a significant portion of that season. Obviously, any surgery would most likely cost Beltran 4-6 weeks. However, playing through pain could be even worse for fantasy owners as an elbow injury could sap Beltran's power and create more uncertainty as to whether he should be started in leagues. At this point, it is a wait and see kind of thing, but most of the likely outcomes in this situation aren't spectacular.
Today's AL Player Report is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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