Trevor Plouffe- Trevor Plouffe has provided solid fantasy value out of the hot corner through the first six weeks of the season. Plouffe has provided fantasy owners with solid contributions in the counting categories as he has provided the third most RBI's and fourth most runs for a third baseman so far this season while batting a solid .280. The statistics seem to indicate that fantasy owners can expect a bit more power from Plouffe with at least some regression in his batting average as the season moves along. A .376 BABIP is inflated over what we have seen from Plouffe through his Major league sample size, and it is reasonable to expect regression from this number closer to the .285-.300 range. As such, there may be a significant drop in his batting average over the coming months. I would expect Plouffe to end the season closer to a .250 BA than his current .280, which will obviously decrease his value. The good news is, while you may take a hit on his average, his counting stats seem likely to continue to provide excellent value to fantasy owners. Plouffe's 3.4% HR/FB rate seems likely to regress closer to 9-11% based on his longer sample size meaning that we will start to see more balls leaving the park. His increased plate patience has been a terrific surprise as his 12.3% BB Rate is almost double his 2013 rate of 6.5%. An increase in his power, a steady ability to get on base and solid lineup placement bode well for continued production in both runs and RBI's. Overall, Trevor Plouffe is a hold in most formats. There will be some downsides to the roller coaster in coming weeks as his batting average regresses, but the return on initial investment here looks to be a huge long term gain based on where he was valued in draft season.
Alexei Ramirez- Several weeks ago, I wrote a post on Alexei Ramirez advising owners to sell high. Ramirez's predicted regression has begun. On April 16, 2014, Ramirez had 3 Home Runs and 3 steals and was batting in excess of .400. Since then, Ramirez has managed just 1 homer and 2 steals while his batting average has expectedly fallen to .328. Further regression seems in order for Ramirez. His ISO is still in excess of 60 points higher than it has been in either 2012 or 2013 (.160 this season v. .096 in 2013 and .099 in 2012). When combined with a 49.6% Ground Ball Rate, which is supported by his historical data, it does not seem realistic that Ramirez will have a power resurgence of the type he is currently experiencing. His BABIP at .348 is probably is still 30-50 points higher than what can be expect based on his career norms, which points to a batting average regression. Said regression is probably in full swing currently as Ramirez was 1 for his last 13 entering play on Tuesday. If you held on for this long, my best piece of advice is to hope that Ramirez has a two or three hit night in the next couple of games and begin approaching teams desperate for middle infield help about a potential swap. His only true value long term will be as a stolen base threat, but even then, he will probably land somewhere between 15-20 steals on the season. Fine value in an AL-only league, but you can probably do better in mixed leagues. Plus, you might get someone to pay a premium based on his hot start.
Brian Dozier- I feel like the Fantistics squad, including yours truly, has covered Dozier fairly adequately to begin the season, but I try to acquiesce to reader's requests. As such, let this serve as your bi-daily dose of Fantistics Brian Dozier love hour. Dozier has done everything a fantasy owner can ask of him to do with the exception of hitting for average, which, frankly if you've been paying attention to our coverage, isn't going to happen anyways. Dozier's .250 BABIP is probably slightly lower than should be expected, but a 10-20 point regression in Dozier's favor isn't going to make much difference in his end batting average. He truly is a .240 or so hitter. He just may be the most valuable .240 hitter in all of fantasy right now. Dozier is locked in as the Twins lead-off man. With a 16.3% BB Rate, which is double his 8.2% rate from 2013, a .367 OBP and a fantastic 5.6% Swinging Strike Rate, Dozier is in no jeopardy of being lowered in the batting order. This means his elite run production (31 runs is tied for the Major League lead with Troy Tulowitzki) is here to stay. His power may be subject to slight negative regression as a .207 ISO is higher than we saw from Dozier in 2013, but at age 28, there is no reason to believe that we aren't in the midst of his power prime. He hits plenty of fly balls (45.7%), and they are leaving the yard at a fairly good rate (19.0%). There is room in his HR/FB to regress, and I expect it will somewhat. If it doesn't, Dozier is looking at a truly unbelievable campaign. Barring injury as is, a 20/20 season seems like a lock for the Twins' second baseman. The only question is will he cool-off enough for that to be all you get out of him.
Adrian Beltre- Where, oh where, has Adrian Beltre's power gone? It seems Mr. Beltre has lost his ability to slug early in the season as a .075 ISO and .343 Slugging Percentage underscore a disappointing first 18 games for the Texas third baseman. Thankfully enough for Beltre owners there is a silver lining to early to these early season woes. First, Beltre's stint on the DL means his statistics are dealing more with short sample size issues than most players through the first week in May. Second, his numbers aren't really adding up just yet. Beltre is displaying solid plate patience with a 10.7% BB Rate, is hitting the ball hard with a 30.4% Line Drive Rate and has reduced an already low Swinging Strike Rate down to 5.5%. For some reason though, Beltre's Fly Ball Rate is down to 26.8%, and he has yet to hit a home run in 2014. I'm going to go out on a pretty strong limb here and state that this will all regress back to his career norms. While Beltre did suffer from a fairly large power drop between 2012 and 2013 (ISO of .240 in 2012 dropped to .193 in 2013), there is no reason to believe that another .120 point drop in power is anything more than a small sample aberration. People will start trying to buy low on Beltre if they are intelligent. Just hold position as you won't get fair value dealing him now if you own him, and if not, it can't hurt to try to acquire him from a frustrated owner.
Nick Castellanos- Nick Castellanos' first month in the big leagues has been a fairly mixed bag. He has displayed solid power with 4 home runs and a .186 ISO to this point, but his batting average and plate patience have left something to be desired. Castellanos is going through some growing pains for a young player, but his stats seem to indicate a solid base for future development. His .239 BABIP is lower than should be expected given his minor league sample size and traditional MLB league averages. This indicates that Castellanos is due a bit more luck on the balls he hits into play and his average should creep into more respectable territory moving forward in the season. His contact rates are also encouraging for long term fantasy value. Castellanos puts the ball in the air with solid frequency. He has a 33.8% Line Drive Rate and a 40.8% Fly Ball Rate, which are both very encouraging for a player who profiles as a middle of the lineup run producer. His negative right now is his plate patience. A 19.1% K Rate, 4.3% BB Rate and a really high 17.6% Swinging Strike Rate all tell the tale of a player who hasn't adjusted just yet to how big league pitching will attack him. Overall, if you own Castellanos, you seem to have a very solid asset moving forward. His plate patience (or lack thereof) will continue to suppress his batting average even when his BABIP regresses, but there certainly seems to be a solid power potential based on his current ISO and batted ball rates. I like him a lot in keeper and dynasty formats, but he is good enough right now that he should be owned in just about all mixed leagues.
Today's AL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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