Kenley Jansen (RP, LAD)
Kenley Jansen is 3rd in the NL with 14 saves after his outing tonight. His cut FB velocity is up almost 2 mph this year sitting at an impressive 95.5 mph. So what's the problem? Sometimes added velocity can be an issue. In the past, Jansen's sinker and slider were the pitches that presented him with the most problems. He has thrown his slider less this year and he has had better control over his sinker. Unfortunately, his bread and butter pitch, his cut FB, is where he was being hit early in the season. The very good news is that starting in the beginning of May, Jansen seemed to gain better control of his cut FB. Even though he sits with a 4.15 ERA, his xFIP is at 2.09 and his Swinging Strike Rate is a phenomenal and career best 16.5%. With a ridiculously high .417 BABIP which is sure to regress, I think Jansen should lead the NL in saves this year after a very shaky first month.
Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Colorado)
The question that everyone asks about Troy Tulowitzki starts with "what if". What if he stays healthy for an entire year? Well right now he is on pace to hit 43 HR, drive in 118 RBI's, score 148 runs, and bat .377 after tonight's 1-4 performance. All this from a player who averaged only 105 games a year over the last 4. This year almost everything off his bat is hit with authority. His LD% of 26.6 is 7 points over his career average. His HR/FB rate of 29.5% is nearly double his career number and all of this while actually hitting FB's at a lower rate than any year outside of his rookie season. What this tells us that this kind of performance cannot be sustained, but it fun while it lasts. We should remember that Tulo did have two years in his career when he did play in over 143 games and he never produced anywhere close to these numbers. He is a career .298 hitter who at his best has hit as many as 32 HR, driven in 105 RBI's, and scored 104 runs. When you factor in his injury history, he may be one the best sell high candidates in recent memory.
Pedro Alvarez (3B, Pitts)
Pedro Alvarez emerged as a prodigious slugger in 2012 and he elevated his production in 2013 hitting 36 HR and driving in 100 RBI's. The .233 BA was unsightly but you did not acquire him expecting any batting titles. This year, while he has shown more patience at the plate with his best walk and K rates of his career, his ISO is down from .240 last year to .153 this year. Not helping matters, he is hitting only .212 but I see a correction there when his .231 BABIP starts to rise. He has hit 9 HR's in 2014, after his HR in today's game, so it is not like he has lost his power touch. It may be that he is the kind of hitter who needs to swing from the heels to maximize the power part in his game. While he is has a 42% FB rate which is his highest career rate, his selectivity at the plate has resulted in a more tentative approach that has seen his IFFB% double and his line drive rate dip to a weak 12.4%. It may be that the best Alvarez is the one who throws caution to the wind every time he steps up to the plate.
Jordan Zimmerman (SP-Nationals)
After a rough start today which saw him give up 4 ER on 7 hits and 2 walks in 6 innings, Zimmerman's ERA has ballooned to 3.95 and his record fell to 3-2. Last year Zimmerman sported a superb 19-9 record with a 3.25 ERA. There is no reason to panic. His velocity remains the same as last year. At 10.5%, his swinging strike rate is by far the best of his career. The fact is that he is pitching to some very bad luck in the form of a .367 BABIP which most certainly will correct itself. His xFIP at 3.46 is nearly a half run lower than his ERA. This season, Zimmerman is actually striking out more batters/9 innings than he has at any time in his career. His LOB%, GB% and HR/FB% are all in the range or better than last year. As we know there is no accounting for wins, which are subject to huge swings from one year to the next, but if someone is souring on Zimmerman in your league make a deal right now if you can.
Todd Frazier (3B, Cinn)
After a promising 2012 when he batted .273 and hit 19 HR in 465 AB's it looked like the Reds had their answer at 3B. Then 2013 happened. Nearly everything went south for Frazier as his average dipped to .234 and he was not able to improve on his 2012 HR totals even though he came to the plate 135 more times. He was hampered by an unlucky .269 BABIP rate. With this type of up and down performance it was hard to predict which Frazier we would see this year. Luckily for the Reds and fantasy owners, Frazier is performing like he did in his rookie year. After clubbing his 9th HR on the year in tonight's game, he is batting a much more respectable .273. He does not have the contact rates to be a strong BA guy but his power is for real and once the Reds lineup starts to heat up again he will be a more than respectable option at corner this year. @stevietheshu
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