Jeff Samardzija- Few pitchers in baseball have more tough luck no decisions than the Shark. Wednesday's match-up with the Yankees was yet another frustrating day for Samardzija. He pitched 7 shutout innings striking out 3 and allowing 7 base runners (2 walks) until the bullpen blew his win in the bottom of the ninth. The bad news for the Shark is that a bit of regression in his performance is due. Two statistics jump out at you when reviewing Samardzija's numbers through his first 10 starts. The first number is a 4.2% HR/FB rate. While Shark is inducing more ground balls than in the past, 50.3% is a career high and continues a four year trend of increased Ground Ball Rates, it still can't explain a HR/FB rate that is so far from his 12.8% and 13.3% numbers in 2012 and 2013. This seems destined for a negative regression towards his three-year mean. The second number that jumps up at you is a 80.4% Strand Rate. This number is well above his career norm. The combination of a below-average HR/FB rate and an above average Strand Rate is not a recipe for continued success. Eventually, these numbers will come back to their mean and Shark's ERA will increase from the current paltry 1.62. Given his already reduced K Rate (down to 19.8% from last year's 23.4%), a regression in ERA could hinder Shark's value somewhat. He is likely to finish the season amongst the top 40 starting pitchers in fantasy, but a decrease in strikeouts and a regression with his other indicators means a bumpier ride than what fantasy owners have gotten thus far. It may be worth seeing if someone is willing to pay you top dollar for Samardzija while his ERA is still below 2.00.
Christian Yelich- It's tough not to love Christian Yelich when you watch him play baseball. He is as close to a proto-typical athlete as you would want in your outfield. Fantasy owners have had a nice early season reward from Yelich who has managed to combine power and speed with 5 home runs and 7 stolen bases. Prior to the season, I wrote a blog post for Fantistics where I stated that a 15/15 season would be a tremendous success for fantasy owners and Yelich. So far, we are on pace for right about those numbers if not a bit over in the stolen base category. The only real issue is Yelich's batting average, which is being dragged down by a strong tendency to hit the ball on the ground. To date, Yelich has a 63.6% Ground Ball Rate, which is supported by his somewhat larger sample size. Between 2013 and 2014, we now have 414 Plate Appearances with Yelich putting the ball on the ground in excess of 60% of the time he makes contact. This is sapping his potential to become an elite offensive outfielder. Yelich has a fairly spectacular HR/FB rate of 20% this season and 18.4% over those same 414 Plate Appearances. The problem is that he just isn't putting the ball in the air enough to convert that rate into elite home run production. The common excuse is that he is young yet and will come into his power prime, which may be true. We have also seen with players such as Billy Butler and Eric Hosmer (sorry Royals fans) that high Ground Ball Rates may not change just because a player ages. Yelich continues to have very nice value thanks to his speed, but until we see some of those ground balls become line drives or fly balls, he will continue to frustrate owners waiting on potential to become reality.
Ian Desmond- It has been a struggle this season for fantasy owners who drafted Ian Desmond early in drafts expecting 20/20 production with a solid batting average out of the shortstop position. Desmond's indicators for a bounce back are not terrific. His K Rate is up to 26.8%, which is in large part due to an increased Swinging Strike Rate of 14.6%. Based on the numbers it does not seem like Desmond is recognizing pitches outside of the zone and adjusting to them as he has in the past. He is swinging at 2.6% more pitches outside the strike zone in 2014 while making contact with 6.6% less of those pitches. Swinging more and missing at pitches outside the zone is a recipe for failure. In addition to this disturbing trend, Desmond is also making ridiculously weak contact far too often. His Line Drive Rate is down an astonishing 11.5% from 2013 (22.5% to a paltry 11% this year), and while his Fly Ball Rate is up to 37%, his IFFB% is at an atrocious 19.1% (up 10.1% from 2013) meaning that too few of those fly balls are getting into the outfield to do any real damage. To make matters worse, almost all of those line drives he was hitting in 2013 seem to have become ground balls in 2014. His Ground Ball Rate is up 8.6% from 2013 to a pretty awful 52% on the season. All of this paints a picture of a player who is fairly lost at the plate. If it weren't for his 14.9% HR/FB rate leading to 7 homers on the season, Desmond would be virtual useless especially given that his speed has all but disappeared this season. There is nothing to indicate that Desmond is hurt and such a large regression in talent is rare at age 28. For now there is little to do with him but hang on and try to find more productive options on the wire. At least it seems you will get a bit of what you paid for if he keeps up the pace with his home runs.
Ryan Braun- Ryan Braun's early 2014 has been a strange mess of statistical indicators. On the positive side, Braun's contact rates are painting a picture of a player making solid contact regularly. His Line Drive Rate is up 3.5% from his 2013 rate and is supported by his 2011 and 2012 numbers. His Fly Ball Rate is similarly up and is also supported by his last two full seasons of baseball. All of this is fairly excellent news as both of those seasons provided elite fantasy production for Braun's owners. The disturbing part of Braun's indicators come largely from his swing rates. His Swinging Strike Rate is up to 10.7%, which is the highest it has been in the last 6 seasons. He is swinging at 4% more balls outside of the strike zone and making contact with 9% fewer pitches outside the strike zone than in 2013 (it gets even worse if you look back to 2012 and 2011). Normally, we attribute these kind of numbers to players failing to recognize breaking pitches or "cheating" on fastballs as their bat speed decreases. You would assume that accumulating more swinging strikes would lead to more strikeouts, but Braun has managed to actually reduce his K Rate to 17.7%. Something has to give, the question is what will regress first. Will his swing rates regress to his career mean and provide us with less to be nervous about? Or will his K Rate increase to line-up with his swing rates? This is a situation worth watching very closely for fantasy owners. Are we seeing the beginning of Braun's decline phase? Or is it just a bump in the road for an otherwise elite baseball player? I'm not sure where to land on Braun yet. I'm just going to be keeping both eyes on him moving forward, and I suggest you do the same. Like I said before, something has to give.
Alfredo Simon- Its getting to be that time where you should start selling high on Alfredo Simon. He pitched another solid game today against the Nationals, but his stellar start is not long for this world. His 7.0 IP, 6 strikeout and 1 walk performance is about the best you could ask for from Simon. With that being said, I don't see that kind of outing coming along too much more. His 88.7% Strand Rate is just far too high, and while he does leave runners on thanks to a slightly above average Ground Ball Rate, it just isn't enough to explain that high of a number. This is especially true because Simon just doesn't strike anyone out. Simon isn't offering much in the way of strikeout production with only a 15.5% K Rate after Wednesday's start. A middling Ground Ball Rate and a bad K Rate when combined do not help support an inflated Strand Rate. On top of which, he is allowing a three year high in HR/FB rate. Thanks to that strand rate, it seems most of those big flies are coming of the solo variety. It isn't too hard to see where this is going. As the Strand Rate regresses, those solo home runs are going to turn into the multi-run variety. His 2.31 ERA should quickly regress much closer to his 4.56 FIP, which would essentially eliminate him from having any fantasy value whatsoever. Did I mention a .216 BABIP against? Find an owner who isn't paying attention to any of this, believes Simon is having a break-out campaign and SELL HIM NOW. I don't think advice gets much clearer than that.
Today's NL Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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