Shelby Miller (SP-STL). Miller dominated the Braves on Saturday afternoon, pitching 7 innings of 1 run (zero earned) ball, striking out 7 while allowing only 5 hits and 2 walks. The solid performance improved Miller's season ERA to 2.79. This would be a great opportunity for a Miller owner to sell high, as he cannot possibly maintain this level of performance, given his current peripherals. Miller is benefiting from a .255 BABIP and a 90.9% strand rate and his FIP and xFIP of 5.88 and 4.89, respectively, are better indication of his true performance. Miller's K% of 17.0% is not only decidedly mediocre, it also represents a 6% drop from 2013 and his 13.9% BB rate is a 6% increase over 2013. Regression is coming for Miller, and when it does, it will not be pretty.
Bartolo Colon (SP-NYN). After several rocky outings, Colon appeared to right the ship a bit on Saturday against the Nationals, picking up his 3rd win of the season by throwing 8 innings of 2 run ball, while striking out 5, while allowing only 5 hits and 1 walk. Colon has not been able to duplicate his 2013 success this year, but that should not have been a complete surprise, as his 2.65 ERA significantly outperformed his peripherals, as evidenced by his 3.23 FIP and 3.95 xFIP in 2013. As someone with a below-average K-rate, Colon is more dependent on his infield defense than most, and he appears to be suffering from the downgrade from the A's defense to the Mets' defense (.294 BABIP in 2013, .349 BABIP in 2014). Colon's low K-rate and slippage in peripherals (4.04 FIP and 3.81 xFIP so far this year) make Colon a pitcher to avoid, notwithstanding today's positive results.
Jaime Garcia (SP-STL). Garcia is scheduled to be activated off the DL and make his first start in almost exactly one year against the Braves on Sunday. Garcia is coming off surgery to repair a torn labrum, so his ability to regain his previous level of performance is questionable, but if he is truly healthy, he could be a difference maker for fantasy squads. In his last full season of work in 2011, Garcia went 13-7, with a 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and a 3:1 K:BB ratio. If he is able to duplicate that performance, he becomes a must-add in all formats. NL-only leaguers should make him a speculative add immediately, although mixed leaguers may want to wait and see how he performs in his first few starts.
Yonder Alonso (1B-SD). Alonso went 2 for 5 with 2 RBI against the Rockies Saturday night. Alonso's horrible numbers are the direct result of horrible batted ball luck, as he is carrying a .215 BABIP despite a 21.3% line drive rate. Further, although Alonso has only 1 HR on the season, his power numbers should improve as his HR/FB rate is an unnaturally low 2.2% and Alonso is hitting fly balls at a career-high 37.7% clip. Normalization in his HR/FB rate should result in improved HR totals, even with the Petco effect. Alonso makes a good buy-low or waiver wire target in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues (although he is unlikely to ever hit for enough power to be relevant in standard mixed leagues), as I expect him to post solid numbers for the rest of the season, and one of the biggest threats to his PT has been removed with the trade of Kyle Blanks to Oakland.
Wilin Rosario (C-COL). Rosario is expected to be activated off the DL on Sunday. Rosario had gotten off to somewhat of a slow start prior to being placed on the DL, as he was slashing only .239/.274/.398 and had hit only 3 HR. However, Rosario's BABIP was only .243 (well below his career .308 rate), so some average improvement should be expected. Additionally, Rosario's 26.0% FB rate is 10% below his career rate, so the home run rate should pick up as well. Rosario is one of few catchers who is almost guaranteed to hit 20 HR, so those who have had him on their DL should get him active immediately and he should be picked up if he is available on the waiver wire in your league, unless you are currently rostering someone like Buster Posey.
