Josmil Pinto- Josmil Pinto is one of many young catchers that will provide you some pop without much in the way of batting average. Pinto's current .227 average should regress in a positive manner given his .244 BABIP, but it is hard to predict a large regression as Pinto isn't making too much solid contact. A 12.4% Line Drive Rate and 47.2% Ground Ball Rate both indicate that a regression in singles percentage could be a minor one. The good news is that you Pinto can contribute enough outside of batting average to keep himself employed in deeper mixed leagues and AL-Only squads as long as he is getting the Plate Appearances. He is showing a very strong 14.1% BB Rate to this point, and he is flashing some very real power. Pinto already has 7 home runs in 142 plate appearances and a 40.4% Fly Ball Rate. His 19.4% HR/FB is high, but it is supported by his Major League sample to this point. As long as Pinto is taking walks and putting the ball in the air with that frequency, he should be a solid second catcher in fantasy formats. His home park may sap some of that power, but he should end up with 15+ home runs while splitting time with Kurt Suzuki. Given that kind of power production, it is shocking that he is only owned in approximately 3% of leagues. My guess is that number will start to rise as his batting average begins to rise. Pinto is especially valuable in keeper and dynasty formats as he should eventually take the full time position from the replacement level Suzuki.
Michael Bourn- Before the season, I was openly concerned about further deterioration of Michael Bourn due to his leg injuries. The good news is that we have not seen all that much more in the way of an aggressive decline from Bourn to date. The bad news is that it does not seem like the player that stole 40+ bases 5 years in a row is going to be seen around these parts again. Bourn's numbers are almost identical to his 2013 season. His speed rating is down to 6.1 this season from 6.5 last year. While that isn't a huge drop, Bourn's value has always been directly tied to his ability to help owner's compete for stolen bases. At this point, it seems like Bourn will finish closer to his 2013 number of 23 steals than his 2012 number of 42. While 23 steals has some value, Bourn doesn't do enough else for teams to maintain a consistent roster spot in most mixed league formats. His batting average will almost assuredly negatively regress from his current .294 as he is carrying a BABIP of .383. This is an unrealistically high BABIP even for Bourn's younger days where his speed allowed him to carry BABIP's well into the .360's. Even with a heightened Line Drive Rate (up to 23.3% from last year's 19.6%), Bourn's average should drop anywhere from 20-30 points over the coming months. Bourn is not without value as an injury replacement or rotational player for owner's trying to add a couple extra steals, but he is certainly not a must start every night type of asset. If you lower your expectations, I suspect Bourn will be a helpful asset. Just not one that needs to be on your team week in and week out.
Wil Myers- The bad news keeps getting worse for Wil Myers owners as it was announced on Tuesday that the reigning AL Rookie of the Year will miss at least 5-6 weeks recovering from a stress fracture in his wrist. The only good news to take away from this situation is that Myers' wrist injury finally answers the frustrating question of, "Why did Wil Myers just stop hitting for power?" We all knew that Myers .293 batting average seemed largely induced by his .362 BABIP in 2013. When Myers average dipped to begin 2014, it was hardly a surprise to anyone paying attention. What was a surprise was his sudden inability to drive the ball, specifically out of the ball park. His K Rate, BB Rate and contact rates all painted the picture of a similar, if not more patient, hitter. He was hitting a few more fly balls and a few less line drives, but certainly, it shouldn't have caused him to drop almost 6% in HR/FB Rate. The injury, while greatly concerning, does explain what had been one of the early season's more frustrating mysteries. Now, we know what was wrong. A wrist injury is one of the quickest thing to sap a ball player's power. Now, Myers will be in a cast for 5-6 weeks followed by probably at least 2 weeks of rehab. Maybe, he will be back by early to mid-August to help fantasy teams, but I wouldn't be surprised if this season turns into a lost campaign for him. The Rays will take a cautious approach with their young star. Dynasty and keeper league owners need to just stash him and wait it out as can re-draft owners with deeper benches/DL slots. Owners in shallower leagues with limited DL spots should probably start thinking about releasing him into the wild.
Eric Hosmer- On the Fantistics Fantasy Show on Sirius/XM Radio this weekend (shameless plug, TUNE IN), we discussed Eric Hosmer as a player that owners should change their thinking on. This is my second piece on Hosmer in the last 14 days because I really want to get this point across to readers. I can't emphasize enough that it is time for re-draft owners to cut bait on Hosmer for higher upside players. I cannot understand in any fashion why he would be owned in 85% of leagues based on what we are seeing from him at this point. He is a first baseman that makes weak contact, puts the ball on the ground, flashes no speed and plays in one of the worst run scoring offenses in the league. Through 250+ Plate Appearances, Hosmer has a 14.1% Line Drive Rate (awful) and a 51.5% Ground Ball Rate (atrocious). As I pointed out a couple of weeks ago, Hosmer is managing to hit more balls in the air this season, but his 34.3% Fly Ball Rate is still below average and his 11.8% IFFB Rate is above average. To put this more clearly, 63.3% of the balls Eric Hosmer hits only leave the infield if they manage to get passed a defender. Is this really what you want out of your first baseman? Even in dynasty formats, it is getting to the point that we have a large enough sample size to cut Hosmer. There is nothing in his sample to show that a regression will provide any real power moving forward. It is unlikely that he even hits the 14 home runs we saw from Hosmer in 2012. Sadly, we know who this player is at this point. Don't kid yourself based on pre-season reputation. Don't let your draft board influence your decision making in June.
Gordon Beckham- Gordon Beckham has had a hot start to his 2014 season. The White Sox 2nd baseman has managed 4 home runs through his first 150+ Plate Appearances while carrying a .285 average. This has made him relevant in most deeper mixed leagues and AL-Only formats. Sadly, the statistics do not paint a picture of this being a sustainable pace for Beckham. Beckham has started the season with a .330 BABIP that is just not sustainable in comparison to his three year averages. As the BABIP regresses, his .285 Batting Average will revert closer to the .250-.260 range that we are used to from Beckham. Additionally, his power is probably not long for this world either. He is hitting more balls on the ground than in previous years and far fewer balls in the air. While his Line Drive Rate may keep his average respectable enough, it will difficult sustain even a .130-.140 ISO based on his current batted ball rates. We will most likely see yet another fantasy irrelevant campaign from Beckham moving forward where he just does not produce enough speed or power to be consistently owned in any but the absolute deepest formats.
Today's American League Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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