Jake Arrieta- It's time to start taking Jake Arrieta very seriously. Arrieta has struggled through injury, ineffectiveness and a lack of command of the strike zone for most of his professional career. It seems like he has finally come into his own this year with the Cubs. He is hitting that sweet spot we look for in top fantasy pitchers. Arrieta is currently striking out batters at 26.7% which is an elite rate. He is controlling his biggest weakness throughout his professional career: the walk. Arrieta has a 7.3% BB Rate through his first 9 starts, which is good news for a pitcher who has struggled with that issue before. In addition to striking out more batters and walking fewer, Arrieta has completed our pitching triumvirate by generating a ton of ground balls. Through his first 9 starts, Arrieta has a 53% Ground Ball Rate. Everything we have seen to date paints the picture of Jake Arrieta as a fantasy stud. He is only owned in 28% of standard leagues, which is nuts. If you are in need of starting pitching help, there are few players in better position to help you than Arrieta. I would move quickly though. After his 11 strikeout, 1 walk performance on Wednesday, he probably will be owned in a lot more leagues very quickly.
Dee Gordon- About a month ago, I wrote up Dee Gordon and discussed an upcoming regression in his batting average based on an inflated BABIP. True to form, Gordon has seen a 20 point decrease in his batting average from .301 to .281 over the course of that month as his BABIP has regressed. The good news is that Gordon is still running with frequency and success. He has accumulated 36 steals going into play on Wednesday, and he seems poised to eclipse the 55 steal mark. I stand by my recommendation that Gordon is a hold player in head to head formats as he can win you the steal category on any given week, but it may be getting close to time to trade Gordon in roto formats. His batting average may have a bit more regression to it over the course of the season, and if you have been playing Gordon regularly with any other stolen base options, you probably have a solid lead in the stolen base category.
Wilin Rosario- Wilin Rosario is struggling to make solid contact this season, which is greatly altering his value to fantasy owners. Rosario's average is being depressed by a .242 BABIP, which is approximately 60 points lower than his career average. Part of the problem has been bad luck that will change as the season moves along, but another part of the problem is Rosario is putting the ball on the ground far too often. He has added 11.5% to his Ground Ball Rate from 2013 to 2014, which is dragging down that BABIP and therefore, batting average. The hope is that over the larger sample size, Rosario will begin hitting more line drives and fewer ground balls, but it is unlikely that his batting average will come anywhere close to even the .270 he saw in 2012 (it was pretty clear that the .292 from 2013 was a BABIP outlier in the other direction). There is still power in this bat, but he isn't putting the ball in the air enough for owner's to expect truly elite home run totals despite playing in a friendly home ball park and lineup.
Jake Marisnick- Christian Yelich's back injury has opened the door to Jake Marisnick being recalled from the minors for his second stint with the Miami Marlins. Marisnick struggled a bit in his 2013 call-up, but it would be unfair to judge a player on a 118 plate appearance sample. Marisnick's best bet for short term fantasy value is his ability to steal bases. He already had 17 stolen bases at Triple-A in his 274 plate appearances, and he already has 2 steals in 3 games. He won't add much to batting average or power, and owners should be cautious who the drop for Marisnick as he will only be up as long as Yelich is out. With that being said, he has the ability to be a short term stolen base threat for the truly desperate in NL-Only and extremely deep mixed leagues.
Todd Frazier- Todd Frazier has emerged as a top 5 third baseman in fantasy baseball this season based largely on the emergence of potentially elite power. Frazier could always drive the ball out of the park, but as he enters his power prime, he has been more consistent with his contact. Frazier is up to a 22.4% Line Drive Rate on the season matching his 2012 rate. This is significant because it means that Frazier's current .276 batting average may not be in line for a drastic regression. In addition, the hard contact is translating into a 21.3% HR/FB Rate. The expectation is that this rate will regress a bit as Frazier's HR/FB Rate in 2012 and 2013 were significantly lower, 13.2% and 11.7% respectively. Even if there is some regression in that rate, Frazier should easily achieve, if not surpass, 25 home runs. In addition, Frazier has been able to add to fantasy owner's value by stealing 7 bases to date. Frazier is not a speedy player, but if he continues to run, he should be able to give owners another 3-5 steals the rest of the way. All said and told, Frazier has been a great return on investment during the first half based on his pre-season valuation.
Today's National League Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56
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