AL Player Blog- July 23, 2014

Nicholas Rossoletti

Jul 22, 2014

Chase Headley- The Yankees made their first offensive addition of the 2014 trade season by acquiring Chase Headley for the stretch run. Headley will now be available in AL-Only formats for pick-up so getting an idea of whether his July streak is sustainable. I'd say that it doesn't seem likely that Headley will provide much value for fantasy owners moving forward in his new surroundings. Despite his current hot streak, Headley has managed not to take a walk for the entire month of June to date. While it is nice to see him batting .308, a matching .308 on base percentage is not convincing that he is "figuring it out" at the plate. This is particularly true as his BB Rate is the lowest it has been in his entire professional career. His .285 BABIP may still have some positive regression over the course of the next 8 weeks, but we are talking about a jump in average of 10 points or so. This will help make him a tad more valuable than he has been, but his inability to recognize the strike zone and work pitchers into better counts doesn't bode well. Overall, Headley will be a hot name for a couple of days as leagues adjust to his sudden availability, and mixed leaguers dream on his potential outside of Petco. You should ignore most of that noise and remember that over the large sample size Headley has been disappointing. Let someone else waste the waiver claim or ADP budget on Headley. There just isn't enough upside the rest of the way to care.

Brian Roberts- As the trade deadline approaches, the Yankees may look to solidify their second base position beyond the talents of Brian Roberts. Roberts has managed to accumulate 327 plate appearances thus far in 2014, which is the highest number of appearances since 2009. The fact that Roberts has maintained his ever failing health has been a nice surprise for New York. Sadly, his offensive skill set has not returned to form as well. Roberts' numbers are very similar to 2013 as he is still a solid line drive hitter (25.5% in 2014, 24.2% in 2013), but he has been unable to translate that solid contact into base hits. His .275 BABIP is in line with last year's average, and we have nothing in the way of a sample size in the last five years besides the 623 plate appearances between 2013 and 2014 to predict regression. As is, that number of plate appearances is enough to justify the thought that this is who Roberts is at this point in his career and his .242 average seems very real. He never offered fantasy owners much in the way of power. Once upon a time, Roberts made up with that by hitting for average and stealing 30+ bases a year. He should break 10 steals this year, but age and injury have sapped Roberts of that trait. His best trait is that he has received consistent plate appearances for New York so AL-Only owners knew he could be safely owned as a rotational second baseman. A trade or call-up could damage even that limited value. He is already irrelevant in mixed leagues and could become so quickly in AL-Only formats.

Jose Reyes- The most discouraging thing about Jose Reyes' 2014 season is the decreasing stolen base attempts as the year has moved along. Reyes attempted 12 steals in May and was successful all but one time. Since the end of May, Reyes has only attempted 7 steals. He is a perfect 7/7 in those attempts, but he has only attempted two stolen bases in July. Reyes' fantasy value has always been linked to his stolen base ability, and while he is performing as expected in most other categories, this sudden decrease in steal attempts drains his most valuable asset. I've begun to shop Reyes where I own him in an attempt to bring in a more effective asset. I still believe in Reyes' speed, but he is simply not attempting enough steals for me to believe that we will see another 10-15 stolen bases over the course of the next two months. Hopefully, he begins running again, but if he doesn't, there just isn't much other value for your team here.

Lonnie Chisenhall- Several have announced that the Lonnie Chisenhall Regression is in full blast as the Indians third baseman has hit a bit of a rough patch this month. I will say that I still believe Chisenhall is an excellent candidate to bounce back and continue his breakout 2014. Chisenhall is actually having his best month with plate patience of the season. His 15.7% BB Rate is almost double any other month of the season while his K Rate has remained steady. Headley's BABIP is still in line for some negative regression, but he is still a fair bet to maintain an over .300 batting average given his 25% Line Drive Rate. Will Chisenhall match the period when he was putting up video game numbers? No, probably not. He should maintain a solid enough profile to make him very relevant in most deep mixed leagues. If he was dropped, you could do worse than grabbing Chisenhall as a corner infield option, who should have both 1st and 3rd base eligibility.

Yoenis Cespedes- We have seen a disturbing trend in Yoenis Cespedes this season. His HR/FB has decreased to 9.7% after being fairly consistent in 2012 and 2013 (14.8% and 14.4%). His decrease in his ability to put the ball out of the ballpark has been strange considering his age (28) and his relatively steady contact rates. There is no real reason for Cespedes to be hitting less home runs this season, and it is costing fantasy owners what could have been an otherwise stellar campaign. Cespedes is making more contact than ever before (80.9% is approximately a 7% increase over 2012 and 2013), striking out less and putting the ball in the air more than ever (49.5%). Owners will just have to hope that the always volatile HR/FB ratio will normalize for Cespedes over the course of the final two months. If it does, he could still hit 25 on the season, but dreams of 30 home runs for Cespedes seem all but dead.