Carlos Beltran- July has seen Carlos Beltran return to form a bit as a relevant fantasy outfielder. His .279/.343/.492 slash line is the best he has had this season although there is still some cause for concern. Beltran's season long Line Drive Rate is still down at 15%, which would be a career low. The recent hot streak hasn't increased that percentage by any meaningful margin as he managed only a 15.7% Line Drive Rate this month. While Beltran has driven the ball out of the park to a greater degree in July, he actually put the ball on the ground (56%) more this month than in previous months. These aren't great indicators that his breakout month will carry over into August and September. There is still an outside chance at 20 home runs from Beltran, but I'd like to see more balls being hit in the air over the course of the next two months. Overall, it is the time of the year where riding the streak can get you into the playoffs or championship contention so owning Beltran isn't a bad idea. Just keep an eye on his numbers moving forward. He regressed a bit to his career mean in July, but his contact rates weren't encouraging enough to suggest that he can sustain this regression throughout the next 8 weeks.
Ben Zobrist- Ben Zobrist's name has been a hot commodity considering he only has one more season of team control after 2014. Zobrist has returned to form in July slashing .333/.432/.462 while walking at a 15.8% clip while only striking out 6.3%. The sudden hot streak has brought Zobrist's numbers back to within range of his 2013 totals. It is entirely possible that Zobrist can match his 12 home runs from 2013, and he should be a boon in OBP leagues the rest of the way as he has managed to increase his BB Rate to 12.8%, which should not regress much over the course of the next 220+ plate appearances. Overall, it seems Zobrist is passed his power prime, and it is unlikely that we will see him reach the 20 home run plateau again. His HR/FB Rate the last two seasons of 6.1% and 7.7% don't support that kind of power. Even if he did hit that many home runs, it would likely be the outlier towards future performance. However, he still can be a .270 hitter with solid on base percentage skills and a bit of speed. Five weeks ago, Zobrist looked like a shadow of his former self, but a hot July really changed that picture. He should be a serviceable middle infield option with multi-position eligibility down the stretch.
Xander Bogaerts- There might not be a more startling example of my "shiny new toy" syndrome than Xander Bogaerts. I am as guilty of anyone as overvaluing Bogaerts coming into the season despite an incredibly limited sample of major league performance and a less than stellar performance in Triple-A in 2013. In retrospect, another year of minor league seasoning may have been what the doctor ordered for Bogaerts. The Red Sox shortstop/third baseman has shown little grasp on the major league strike zone as he is striking out almost 24% of the time while only walking 7.7% of the time. Bogaerts was never a plate patience monster in the minor leagues, but he was better at controlling the zone than he has shown in 2014. Additionally, he has not found the power that made him such an elite prospect for a shortstop. His .114 ISO is attributable to a 6.5% HR/FB Rate. The good news for Bogaerts long term is that he appears to be an aggressive fly ball hitter (40.1%). The hope is, that as he gains strength from his natural growth, his HR/FB will increase. As is, he should be only owned in dynasty and keeper formats at this point. In re-draft leagues, he just isn't doing anything worth a roster spot. The upside is still there though. He may end up being a bargain in 2015 drafts.
Chris Carter- Chris Carter is an interesting value for owners in need of home runs during the stretch run. I understand the hit you take on batting average by carrying Carter, but he is currently 12th in the league in home runs. This is really simple math the rest of the way. Even if arguments that Carter's HR/FB rate will decrease due to a lower home run distance pan out, how far is that HR/FB Rate going to drop? I doubt it decreases to less than 16-17% over that time span especially considering that July was his highest HR/FB Rate month of the year. We are talking about a player with a 52.2% Fly Ball Rate and a 20% HR/FB Rate. I understand he only makes contact 64% of the time, which is atrocious. I also understand that of the top 15 home run hitters in baseball on July 29, 2014, he is the only player not owned in 90+% of leagues. With basically a 40% ownership rate, I think it makes sense for owners in need of an additional 10 or so home runs the rest of the way to grab Carter. There are a ton of negatives with him, but I'm not sure you can find a more readily available power source at this point of the season.
Derek Norris- Derek Norris has slowed somewhat in July. Specifically, his power has faded almost out of existence. After having a spectacular first half, Norris managed only 1 home run in the month of July. The fade seemed inevitable as his HR/FB is lining back up with his previous seasons, but it also may mark the time to begin selling Norris. His .333 BABIP seems likely to regress over the last 8 weeks, which should take Norris' average from .295 down into the .275-.280 range. While this average is still acceptable when our end of season review comes around, the projected slump that gets him to that average may end up dragging your fantasy team down at the exact wrong moment. Additionally, it is likely that we have seen the majority of Norris' home run contribution for the season. He may tally another 4 or 5 home runs, but fantasy owners may not be able to survive a regression in batting average AND another month to six weeks of power production like we just had in July from Norris. If you can find someone to buy him before your league's trade deadline, I'd see if you can sell high based on the first half performance. He should still be fine rotational piece or 2nd catcher, but I think the days of him impersonating a No. 1 fantasy catcher may be coming to a close in 2014.
Today's American League Player Blog is brought to you by Nicholas Rossoletti. You can follow Nicholas on Twitter @NRoss56.
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