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Fantasy Baseball Projections
Player Commentary

 
Steve Shumansky
Jul 3, 2015

Yonder Alonso (1B-San Diego)

With the Padre's trouble scoring runs, they decided to bat Yonder Alonso in the leadoff position for the first time in his career. He was 1-4 in today's game. Having watching Alonso play many times, he doesn't possess the speed or athleticism that you'd like to see out of a leadoff hitter, but he does have a .399 OBP so this might be a reasonable choice for a team without any better solutions at this time. Alonso has a .310/.399/.402 line with two homers and 20 RBI in 54 games this season. He has been one of those James Loney type 1B that really lacks the power that is expected at the position. Alonso has a career total of 29 HR's in 1622 PA's. What he does do well is make solid contact. We'll have to see if this move sticks, but it certainly would add some value to an otherwise replacement level player.

Justin Upton (OF- Padres) $4000

The trade rumors are beginning to swirl around Justin Upton as CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reports that the Mets "might at least look at Justin Upton if he becomes available." While it is not guaranteed that the Padres will be sellers, Upton will be a free agent after the season. The move to San Diego does not seem to have impacted Upton's power numbers as he has 14 HR's and is on pace to at least approach the career high 31 he hit in 2011. He is lifting the ball at a 44% clip and with his excellent bat speed the HR's will keep on coming. What has made Upton even more attractive is that he has already stolen 16 bases after only producing 8 steals in 2014. Upton is a top 10 outfielder in fantasy and he is only 27 so owners in NL leagues will be praying that he stays in the Senior Circuit. Although he is coming off a subpar June, at $4,000 on DraftKings, he is as good a player as many of the much more expensive OF options.

Brandon Belt (1B-Giants)

Brandon Belt is not in the Giants' lineup Friday as he sits against a quality lefty. He is batting only .133 against left handed pitching this season and all his HR's have come against righties. Overall, Belt has had a fine first half with a .268/.338/.450 slash line. With 9 HR's he is well on his way to surpassing his career high of 17 in 2013. It is very encouraging to see him hit the ball hard at a very strong 42% rate. His 32.2% LD rate is not consistent with his hit tool and is largely responsible for an elevated .351 BABIP rate although he did maintain this number in 2013. Belt's career BABIP rate of .335 would suggest that if an adjustment happens his BA will not take a dramatic fall. He has only league average bat speed, so unless he picks up steam on his in his 33% FB rate and improves on his 27% K rate, a true power breakout this season will not be in the cards.

Justin Bour (1B- Marlins) $3100

Justin Bour homered in his 4th straight game on Friday. With Giancarlo Stanton on the shelf, Bour has been providing much needed power on a squad that has few other sources of HR production. He is making a case for staying at 1B even when Michael Morse returns soon from the DL. What makes this an even better story is that Bour was not a very highly touted prospect in the Cubs organization and when he came to Marlins last season he only produced 1 HR in 39 games. This season Bour has hit the ball particularly hard at a 37.9% rate and his 75% contact rate is not too terrible for a free swinging power hitter. He walks at a good clip and he has managed to keep his K rate under 20% so this development at 27 years old may just be for real. Bour's $3100 cost on DraftKings makes him a quality play on Saturday.

Aramis Ramirez (3B-Brewers) $3900

Aramis Ramirez clubbed his 10th HR of the season on Friday. Several weeks ago I suggested that Ramirez might still have some life left in his 36 year old bat and the aging third basemen has proven me right for at least one week with 9 RBI's in his last 5 games. He still has an average true distance of just over 400 feet on his HR's and his bat speed is still well above league average. Ramirez's .190 ISO is the highest it has been since he hit 27 HR's in 2012 and his FB rate is supportive at 43%. I'm not suggesting that there will be a return to the glory days of being a premier 3B, but in deeper leagues he makes an adequate corner with the possibility of 20 HR's and 75 RBI's if you can afford his current .234 BA. His contact rate is 2 points higher than his career average at a fine 83%. With a very unlucky .236 BABIP, and a history of strong 2nd half hitting, there is certainly room for some upward regression as he is a career .291 hitter. When he is this productive at the plate, he makes a good value on FanDuel at $3900.

@stevietheshu

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Player Commentary
Jul 3, 2015
Steve Shumansky

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