Matt Harvey-Mets-SP
Matt Harvey went 5 IP and gave up 2 ER on 7 H, 1 BB, and 5 K's. Harvey has not looked right to start the year. He is down 2 mph on both his fastball and slider. His SwStr has dropped from 12% a year ago to 8% this year. The decreased velocity has led to less swing and misses, which has ballooned his ERA to 5.24. He also has struggled with control (9% BB). There are major concerns in regards to Harvey's health. I am not ready to completely jump off and sell low, but I would be lying if I wasn't worried.
Gio Gonzalez-Nationals-SP
Gio Gonzalez went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 6 H, 1 BB, and 8 K's. Gonzalez has been excellent to start the year. He has a 1.42 ERA, but that is accompanied by a 3.73 xFIP. Regression is due for Gonzalez due to his .182 BABIP and 100% LOB. Gonzalez is someone who always has a decent strikeout rate, too many walks, and a decent earned run average. If you could get someone to buy high on Gonzalez, now would be the time. If not expect his numbers to climb back up near his career averages, which puts him in the SP #3 range going forward.
Anthony Rizzo-Cubs-1B
Anthony Rizzo was 1-3 with his 6th HR and 2 BB in the win against the Reds. Rizzo is slashing .194/6/17 with a .351 OBP. Rizzo is not hitting for average, but at least the power is there. Rizzo is still walking and not striking out, so he is due positive regression in his batting average, due to his extremely low .140 BABIP. Don't worry about Rizzo, as he is one of the top options in all of fantasy.
Aaron Nola-Phillies-SP
Aaron Nola went 7 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 2 BB, and 7 K's. Nola had a clunker prior to this start with the Brewers. He gave up 7 ER over 5 IP to the Nationals. SO it was nice to see him get back on track. His ERA sits at 4.50 , but his xFIP is 2.51, which suggests that better times are coming. That is backed up by his 30% K and 4% BB. If he continues to strike hitters out and not walk anyone, his ratio stats will eventually come back to earth. Nola is someone who is still young and has potential for growth and he is already showing it with the increased strikeout rate. There is a lot to like here.
DFS Value Play
David Peralta-Diamondbacks-OF
David Peralta is an excellent play anytime he faces a right-handed pitcher. Today he is at home against a RHP that has historically struggled with LHB. He owns a career .384 wOBA and .212 ISO against RHP. The platoon advantage, home park, and lineup spot have David Peralta as one of the top plays on the slate. DraftKings: $3,600
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