Nate Karns (SP, Sea): Karns turned in baseline quality start against the A's on Monday night, giving up three runs on six hits in six innings of work, walking one and striking out five. Perhaps the most promising note here is only the one walk on the night. Karns has never had problems striking batters out (career 8.98 K/9) but the walks, especially early this season, have been an issue. He trimmed his season walk rate down to 4.13/9, but he'll have to continue to improve to maintain his mixed league viability. He's also been prone to the long ball (1.16 HR/9 last year, 1.21/9 this year) and that can really destroy an ERA in a hurry when you're issuing so many free passes. His FIP sits at 4.69 after this start, and that's where his ERA will end up if he can't improve his control. He'll be a dangerous option in his next start at Houston, but will present high strikeout upside.
Byung-ho Park (DH, Min): Park went 2-3 with a run, a walk, two RBI and a triple as the DH against Dallas Keuchel and the Astros Monday evening. He's received only sporadic playing time thus far, but Paul Molitor would be wise to keep his quickly warming bat in the lineup on a daily basis. He does have an unsightly 29.6% K%, which was the issue most analysts took umbrage with this preseason, but he's also tallied six homers and a .380 wOBA in his first 81 plate appearances in the Majors. If you need some cheap power he's an add, but until he gets every day at bats he's going to be a drag to own in shallow mixed leagues.
Dallas Keuchel (SP, Hou): Keuchel was hammered by the Twins Monday, giving up five earned runs in four and a third innings, allowing seven hits and five walks while striking out only three batters. Facing the Twins is usually a great thing for a left-handed starter as they had a .603 OPS against lefites heading into the game, 28th in baseball. Many forecasted some regression for Keuchel this year, especially in the strikeout category, but nobody could have foreseen the huge regression in command; he's fallen from a 2.16 BB/9 in '14 and a 1.98 BB/9 last year all the way to a 4.38 BB/9 so far this season. The strikeouts are down (8.38 K/9 last year, 7.30 this year), and the ground ball rate is also down 6.2%, although that's not any sort of smoking gun in itself. Keuchel's swinging strike rate is actually up, but he's just not getting punchouts on strikes outside of the zone. His velocity is down from last year, with his average fastball down to 87.9 MPH, so there are reasons to be worried. There are also rays of positivity in his outlook however, with a .348 BABIP that should fall quite a bit and a FIP that says his normalized ERA should sit closer to 3.26. His first pitch strike rate is right in line with what he put up last year as well, so the walks should trend back down. Things will get better for Keuchel, but he may end the year closer to #3 starter numbers than a #2.
A.J. Griffin (SP, Tex): Griffin made the Blue Jays look human on Monday night, silencing their bats for one earned run in six innings, allowing only three hits and two walks while striking out nine. His ERA dipped to 2.32 for the season, and while he was stuck with a no-decision on Monday, to date he's got three wins in five tries. It's really a remarkable and unheralded comeback story for Griffin, who coming into the year hadn't pitched at the MLB level since 2013 and wasn't likely to be a factor for the Rangers. He's nowhere near the 14.2% K-BB% he posted back in 2013 though, and don't look too deeply into the 9 K's from this game; the Blue Jays strike out more than anyone in baseball outside of Houston and San Diego. He's got a very unsustainable .217 BABIP, but even with that factored in, his FIP is only 3.29. If you're in a deep league and you're looking for some back end SP help, Griffin is a good add. He doesn't have much upside due to a 7.55 K/9 (a mark that will likely regress even further towards 6.5-7), but the Rangers should help him earn his fair share of wins.
Nomar Mazara (OF, Tex): Mazara went 2-4 with a solo HR Monday against the Blue Jays, pushing his early slash up to .333/.386/.486 in the process. Mazara has shown in a brief sample that at the tender age of 21, he's not overmatched by Major League pitching. Splits are borderline useless in such a small sample size, but for what it's worth he's got a .429 wOBA against right-handed pitching with 6 BB to 4 K in 49 PA. He takes on Marco Estrada in the homer dome that is Rogers Centre in Toronto again on Tuesday. Estrada is a huge fly ball pitcher, so there's a shot there will be a few balls leaving the yard, and Mazara has been hitting second in the Rangers lineup every day. He's been hitting since the day he got called up, but is still a bargain on Draft Kings for $3,400.
Let's talk some ball. Follow me on Twitter @NathanDokken
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