James Loney- 1B- NYN- Idea- Loney has been far more successful against RH pitchers than southpaws this season, with a slash line of .281/.324/.403 and 5 of his 6 homers against them. Jose Urena has had difficulties with LH batters, posting a slash line of .308/.363/.515 against them. Loney has a distinct advantage in this matchup. Value play- Draft Kings salary $2800
Shelby Miller- P- ARI- Hot- Miller's return to the majors was a success, even though he was charged with a loss. Miller pitched a quality start, allowing 2 runs on 6 hits and a walk while striking out 3 over 6 IP. He had struck out 55 over 50.2 IP in his stint at AAA Reno, so Miller may establish value for next year if he can show more starts like yesterday as the season winds down.
Freddy Galvis- SS- PHI- Stats- Galvis has almost identical numbers as last year in LD%, GB%, and FB%. His HR/FB ratio has more than doubled, from 4.3% to 10.5%. So the positive is that Galvis has already hit 14 homers, when he hit 7 all of 2015. His average, though, has plummeted from .263 to .236 despite putting the ball in play in almost the same way as last year. Galvis has suffered from bad luck, with a BABIP of .274 well below his .309 last year. Although his career mark is .279, given that he has double digit steals his 2015 BABIP is probably closer to what would be expected than his career mark that is also impacted by a .198 number in limited time in 2014. Galvis is a candidate for some positive regression to the mean over the final month of the season and to put power and average together next year.
Martin Prado- 3B- MIA- FYI- Prado will be turning 33 late next month and may be showing signs of age-related decline, despite a .319 average. That is driven by good luck indicated by a BABIP of .345, well above his .315 career mark. Prado's FB% has dropped from 30.0% to 26.3%. His GB/FB ratio has risen from 1.56 to 1.86. A positive has been a climb in Batting EYE from 0.54 to 0.76. that isn't enough to offset a drop in HR/FB% from 8.9% in 2014 to 5.9% this year. Prado's value in 2017 is unlikely to match his production this year.
Matt Garza- P- MIL- Hot- Garza seems to have gotten his strikeout power back over his last couple of starts. He has 17 Ks in 12.1 IP in that span. Garza picked up his first quality start in 4 outings yesterday, allowing 1 run on 3 hits and 2 walks while striking out 8 in 7 IP. It was his longest start and gives hope that he might have more value in 2017 than he has had this season. Garza's FIP of 4.43 is not that far off from his ERA of 4.57 so his production for 2016 can't be blamed on bad luck. Watch his final starts of this year and his performance next spring. Garza could be a bounce back candidate.
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