Tommy Joseph-Phillies-1B
Tommy Joseph was 1-4 with a RBI against the Braves. Joseph has struggled to start the year coming off a breakout 2016 season in which he hit 21 HR in 107 games. He is hitting .212 with 1 HR and 7 RBI. The underlying skills do not look good for Joseph in the early going. He has seen a drastic spike in his groundball rate (54%) and his IFFB rate (29%). This means that 83% of his balls in play are either on the ground or pop-ups that don't leave the infield. This is really bad news for his power and that is the reason that he was drafted in most leagues.
Jonathan Villar-Brewers-2B/SS
Jonathan Villar was 2-5 with three strikeouts against the Cardinals. Villar is struggling in the early going hitting just .176. The good news is that he has 3 HR, 9 RBI, and 4 SB. It seems like he has sold out for power, which is not really his game. His strikeout rate has spiked to 38% and his walk rate has fallen to 7% BB. This is reflected in a drop in his contact rate and an increase in his reach percentage. It could be an early slump but the drop in underlying skills is concerning. The Brewers do not have anyone to play instead of Villar, so he will continue to see playing time. A drop out of the leadoff spot is more likely, which would hurt his counting stats.
Wily Peralta-Brewers-SP
Wily Peralta went 4 IP and gave up 6 ER on 9 H, 1 BB, and 0 K's against the Cardinals. Peralta had carried his success in the second half of last year into the beginning of this year. However, the underlying skills did not back up his 2.65 ERA coming into the game. His strikeout rate is still below average (19.4%) and his SwStr does not point to improvements either (5.3%). His walk rate of 11.9% should come down considering he is getting 60% first pitch strikes. Either way, he pitches in a hitter friendly park and has underlying skills that point to a true talent closer to his 4.38 xFIP.
Adam Wainwright-Cardinals-SP
Adam Wainwright went 5 IP and gave up 2 ER on 6 H, 2 BB, and 9 K's against the Brewers. Wainwright has a 6.27 ERA (4.24 FIP) through his first four starts. Everything is line with what he did last year. His velocity is the same as well as his pitch mix. His strikeout rate is still below league average (19%) as well as his SwStr (8.3%). Hitters are chasing less of his pitches out of the zone, which has resulted in a drop in his strikeout rate and an increase in his hard hit rate (38%). Wainwright is not as bad as his 6.27 ERA as evidence tonight but his true talent at this point in his career is likely a low 4's ERA with a below average strikeout rate despite the strong performance tonight.
DFS Value Play of the Day
Enrique Hernandez-Dodgers-OF
Enrique Hernandez normally bats near the top of the order when the Dodgers are facing a left-handed pitcher. He gets a huge park boost going to Arizona with the platoon advantage against LHP Robbie Ray. Hernandez has a career .363 wOBA and .224 ISO against LHP. Ray gives up 38% Hard contact to RHB. Fanduel: $3,100
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