Whit Merrifield- 2B- KC- Idea- Merrifield has an opportunity to continue a hot stretch as Matt Boyd takes a .336/.402/.511 slash line against RH hitters into the game against the Royals. Merrifield's slash line against LH pitching is .292/.342/.444 so the matchup definitely breaks in his favor. Value play- Draft Kings salary $3800
Avisail Garcia- OF CHA- Hot- After going through a stretch of 8 games in which he only collected 1 hit, Garcia has gone 5-for-13 in his last 3 games. He has tied his career best for homers already, with 13 in 334 PAs, after hitting 12 in 453 PAs last year and 13 in 601 PAs in 2015. So the power is solid. However, Garcia's .313 average has been helped greatly by a .374 BABIP. He has also seen his BB% drop from 705% in 2016 to 4.2% this year. His prior cold streak may be some expected regression to the mean and this latest hot spell could be an opportunity to sell high.
Chris Tillman- P- BAL- Stats- Tillman threw his 3rd quality start in his 12th outing of the season, allowing 1 run on 2 hits in 6 IP. However, there is a big red flag in the game which would keep you from thinking he might be turning things around. That is the 4 walks Tillman issued. In his last 7 starts, Tillman has walked 19 batters in 32 IP while striking out 23. His ERA stands at 7.20 while his FIP is a still stratospheric 6.02. Tillman is way off his 2016 production and doesn't seem to be getting straightened out.
Ian Kinsler- 2B- DET- Hot- Kinsler is due for some positive regression to the mean and maybe some arrived last night. He went 3-for-6 with a double and 2 triples. Kinsler's BABIP rose from .249 to .255. his FB% has increased from 44.5% last year to 48.8% in 2017, so a lot of his .242 average can be attributed to bad luck.
Jason Vargas- P- KC- Cold- Vargas entered last night's game with a 2.62 ERA and 3.78 FIP so there was some regression to the mean due. After 2.2 IP it had arrived. Vargas ended up allowing 6 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks while striking out 4. His ERA is now at 3.06 and his FIP 4.04. At 34 years old, it was unlikely that Vargas would continue to turn in a career year.
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