Corey Kluber-Indians-SP
Corey Kluber once again gets the Opening Day nod for the Indians. Kluber is coming off another excellent season of a 2.89 ERA across 215 IP with a 0.99 WHIP. Kluber saw his draft stock take a slight hit this year as draft season wore down he was going outside the top five starting pitchers. This is likely to due to the emergence of Gerrit Cole/Aaron Nola and then the rise of Justin Verlander/Jacob deGrom back to elite status. The other contributing factor is that is underlying skills have started to show a slight decline. His strikeout rate dropped from 34% to 26% which was followed by a drop in his swinging strike rate as well (15%-12%). He also gave up the hardest contact of his career at 37%. This isn't to say that he still can't be a top tier starter it is simply to point why his draft stock has fallen slightly. The good news for Kluber and the rest of the Indians staff is that the division is full of sub-par offenses which should help boost their overall stats.
Jose Berrios-Twins-SP
Jose Berrios is coming off a strong sophomore season in which he posted a 3.84 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP over 192.1 IP. He saw improvements in his K%, SwStr%, and WHIP. Berrios has very solid underlying skills with 25% K, 7% BB, and 42% GB but he also has room for growth given his plus stuff and the overall weakness of his divisional opponents. The one area that Berrios needs to conquer is a career 5.31 ERA on the road. The good news for Opening Day is that he gets a home matchup where he had an elite 3.03 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, and 28% K a year ago. The Indians are likely to be without SS Francisco Lindor and possibly 3B Jose Ramirez making this matchup even more enticing.
Carlos Rodon-White Sox-SP
Carlos Rodon will get the Opening Day start for the rebuilding White Sox. Rodon threw 120.2 IP after coming back from off-season shoulder surgery. He posted a 4.18 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 18% K. The drop in strikeouts was a major concern because that was what his value had been built on. Rodon's velocity was in line with his career marks and he didn't change his pitch mix either. If you look at his heat maps for the location of his fastball you can see a major change from 2017 to 2018. His strategy for right-handed batters was to pound the fastball up and in and then throw his slider down. This resulted in him going slightly deeper into games than his career numbers but from a fantasy perspective, this change in approach really hurts his fantasy value. He doesn't have the control nor the ability to induce weak contact to have such a drastic drop in strikeouts. If the strikeouts don't come back it will be hard to justify rostering him in mixed leagues.
Marco Gonzales-Mariners-SP
Marco Gonzales is making the American Opening Day start for the Mariners which will, in fact, be his second start of the year. In the opener in Japan, he went 6 IP and gave up 3 ER on 7 H (2 HR), 1 BB, and 4 K. He is coming off a year in which he threw 166.2 IP of a 4.00 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He was successful by showing plus control (5% BB) and average strikeout ability (21% K). Gonzales does a great job of keeping hitters off balance by mixing in four pitches that he uses 20%+ of the time. He is more of a floor play than an upside gamble. Gonzales doesn't have the elite stuff to up the strikeouts nor that batted ball profile to suppress hard contact. This means that he is going to continue being an average starter and that has a place on a fantasy roster but expecting more is going to be a mistake.
Carlos Correa-Astros-SS
Carlos Correa is questionable for Opening Day due to neck soreness that happened on Friday. Correa has had the past two seasons staying on the field with 109 and 110 GP respectively. He is still a talented offensive player but injury risk and lack of stolen bases have hurt his overall fantasy value. He was having a good spring (.333 with 6 XBH) prior to getting injured. A year ago he saw a career low in his batting average and power. This was supported by a drop in his average exit velocity, barrel%, and hard hit%. This was most likely due injury but it is concerning. A healthy Correa is likely to pay off his draft day price but the elite power/speed upside that we once saw is not there anymore and he is a major risk to stay healthy.
DraftKings Value Plays: SP Trevor Cahill ($6,300) and OF Delino DeShields Jr. ($3,600)
This is just a small sample of our daily analysis, join our member area for over 80 daily player updates sent to your inbox every morning and track your team online. Click here for details: https://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
