Fernando Tatis Jr., SS Padres
Last year in week #10 I caught up with the other Jr. at the top of the prospects lists, Fernando Tatis Jr:
He's come back to AA as a 19-year-old this year (and he won't be 20 until January), and he's back at it, with just a little slippage in his plate rates, which understandable, and those rates will likely improve from here. He's not walking or running as much, but again he's young, the high-minors is a pretty significant jump. And while we can be a Jr. too, we can't all be Vlad Jr.s. Give the kid some time.
I think he has more to do in the minors and certainly in AA. I'd like to see his speed game return more fully, and I'd like to see that walk rate continue to inch up, although that 14.5% he posted in A-ball in 2017 is an unrealistic standard, I think. Let's see where we are at the Futures Game in a month and track him through July. I don't see him as a big 2018 factor, but who knows? Still, the critical question here is, how do you like the sound of a 20/20 MI?
The takeaway from Tatis' 2018 tour of AA (his second, but he was just 19 throughout the season) is that he appears to have picked a power-heavy path of development. It makes sense, he has plus raw power, and then some. I bring that up because it appears that he won't gear his physical development towards his speed game. He's already 6-3/185 so as he bulks up that speed game will probably slide a bit. In the long term, he's probably good for a dozen SBs or more for a while to go yet, and he may, at some point, post that 20/20 season that I hinted at last year. But it doesn't appear that his speed game is a primary concern.
Tatis did take more walks in his second tour, but his approach is aggressive, and there's a lot of swing and miss in his game. His SwStrk% jumped from 13.9% in AA in '17 (small sample) to 16.5% last year. He's a 2019 prospect. He wants to make noise. Tatis did hit .286 (with a .370 BABIP that will be tough to repeat), but if I am in development for San Diego I want him to spend some time in AAA to see some more sophisticated pitching and better breaking stuff, to challenge his pitch recognition skills and encourage him to reign in his aggression just a click.
There is no better reminder of the fact that I don't run the Padres than the surprise we got at the end of camp when Tatis came north with the team. He adjusts to levels relatively quickly, however, despite his aggression, and a 20/15 pace isn't out of the question, even if it's with a slightly-below-average BA, so he could be a quality add. I would be cautious about overpaying because I am not as convinced as the Padres that he is ready.
Long term Tatis has 30+ HR power and double-digit speed. He's too young to be certain that he'll have a little more swing-and-miss than you'd like to see, but I do think that'll be the case. Long term he looks like the player we hope Yoan Moncada is on the path to becoming, with a little less speed.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A
Royce Lewis, SS Twins
This is what I wrote about Royce Lewis just prior to his draft in 2017:
Royce Lewis out of JSerra Catholic HS in California is a development team's dream. If this were football, we'd call him a guy with a motor. He's chirpy, toolsy, loves the game, and he wants to play, win, and get better.
Good speed, projectable power, a good hit tool and he gets the game. He understands and wants to understand more. Like all great HS athlete,s he's been playing SS but I hope (and think) he will outgrow the position. I see him as a productive power/speed corner OF.
We'll have 2-3 years to watch him climb up the prospects lists, but don't be surprised if we look back on him as The Player that came out of this draft. Ok, so maybe he's the guy I would stash from this draft if I could
Royce did indeed rise through the prospect list quickly, and he opens the season at #5 on MLB.com's Prospect Ranking behind four guys who should see considerable time in the majors this year.
All of those qualities I listed have shown up big time in his first two tours. Royce won't be 20 years until next June. He's playing above his age curve, and his hit tool is holding. Last year his line in High-A was stunted by a .291 BABIP, but his plate rates and zone command held. The pleasant surprise of his pro career so far is his gains defensively at SS, which may allow him to hold the position, that didn't seem likely when he was drafted.
The other aspect I like fo his game thus far is that his game power is already coming in. Normally I'd be looking at a 6-2/188 19-year-old and thinking that with physical maturity he'd start developing his game power, but we are already seeing some of his raw power translate. It's still a legitimate question regarding his raw power ceiling, however, especially if he intends to align his training to stay at short (which is why in my 2017 post I said I hoped he would outgrow the position), but what we are seeing is encouraging considering there are still some physical gains to harvest.
Royce is a high-level talent with drive. He's athletic (toolsy) with an excellent hit tool and speed to burn. He's an excellent package. But he won't be a 2019 factor, and I think 2020 could be early as well, in terms of a major impact. But he's a must-own in leagues with deep reserve and/or minor league keeper components, and of course, dynasty leagues. It's not too early to stash a future All-Star.
Long Term Fantasy Grade - A
Registered members can click on the following link to see the complete Prospect Central article for this week, which includes other prospects: http://www.fantistics.com/
