Rick Porcello, SP (NYM)
For the first time this month, Porcello was unable to reach the 6th inning. In fact, the veteran right-hander was pulled from Tuesday's start prior to the 4th inning. He allowed four runs on five hits with four strikeouts in three innings of work. He threw 64 pitches, which is his lowest amount since his first start of the season. In spite of Porcello's weak performance on Tuesday, his advanced metrics are much more encouraging than his surface stats. The loss dropped Porcello to 1-4 with a 6.43 ERA, but his xFIP is 4.28 (FIP is 3.03). The ERA is really inflated due to a .413 BABIP and 56.6% strand rate. However, Porcello is poised to give up some more home runs when his 6.5% HR/FB rate regresses. Porcello has never been a high-strikeout pitcher, but his 6.4% swinging strike rate is his lowest since 2011. Porcello's role is safe and his numbers should improve, but there are usually better streaming options available.
J.T. Realmuto, C (PHI)
Realmuto connected for his first home run since Aug. 14, his only hit in five at-bats in Philadelphia's win at Washington. Since getting traded to Philadelphia, Realmuto has gotten more aggressive and is making less contact, but his production has excelled. He is in the top-25 among all hitters in wOBA and wRC+. Realmuto is swinging harder and chasing less. The big swings have led to a dramatic jump in Realmuto's barrel rate, which is contributing to his .601 expected slugging percentage. Interestingly, his launch angle is actually a bit lower in 2020, which is part of the reason he's hitting nearly half his batted balls on the ground. The high groundball rate is not negatively affecting his home run totals yet because of a near-40% HR/FB rate. However, eventually an uptick in groundballs, regardless of how hard he hits them will lower Realmuto's home run totals. It won't lower his batting average though, which should continue to hover around .290. He remains one of the best fantasy catchers in the game and is an asset to any fantasy lineup.
Luis Castillo, SP (CIN)
Castillo finished with his highest pitch count of the season on Tuesday against Milwaukee, but it did not lead to his first win of the season. He allowed three runs (two earned) in six innings while striking out nine, but it was his fourth straight game allowing at least two walks. In last year's breakout campaign, Castillo was effectively wild. He had the lowest zone rate in all of baseball. That means he pitched in the strike zone less than any other qualified pitcher. It worked because he still got batters to chase pitches out of the zone and didn't allow significant contact in the zone. This year is different. He is pitching in the zone seven percent more than last year, and batters are swinging at those pitches a lot more. However, his stuff is so good that he gets very weak contact on those zone pitches. Furthermore he is getting ahead of batters more than ever, which is leading to the highest strikeout rate of his career. His 4.18 ERA can be explained by a low strand rate and a .400 BABIP. However, mild improvement in his walk rate combined with better luck will put Castillo right back in the upper echelon of MLB starters.
Paul DeJong, SS (STL)
DeJong tallied three singles in four plate appearances in St. Louis' loss to Kansas City on Tuesday. The Cardinals hope this is a sign he is turning things around as he has scuffled mightily in limited time. The Cardinals shortstop is homerless since Opening Day and he had only one hit in his last four games coming into Tuesday. Two of those hitless games came before DeJong went on the IL after testing positive for COVID-19. The truth is, however, DeJong is hitting the ball exceptionally hard. He hit three balls with an exit velocity over 100 mph on Tuesday and his average exit velocity this season is 93.7. He needs to lower his launch angle (30 degrees) because he has an elevated flyball rate, but Tuesday's performance was promising (lower launch angle, high exit velocity). Count on further improvement from the underrated shortstop in the future.
Josh Hader, RP (MIL)
Hader is slowly creeping into the Cy Young conversation after another shutdown performance on Tuesday. He has now pitched more than nine innings and hasn't allowed a hit. He recorded his seventh save in a perfect inning for the Brewers. The lanky lefty altered his approach this season, throwing his slider nearly two and a half times as much as last year. Conversely, he is using his fastball 20 percent less than 2019. That has led to a drop in swinging strike rate but a precipitous decline in hard hit percentage. Hader's whiff percentage on his slider is 50%. It's devastating for lefties but nearly as unhittable for righties. Eric Gagne was the last relief pitcher to win the Cy Young award. That was in 2003. Hader is making a strong case in 2020.
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