Joey Gallo (OF - TEX) - We've talked about this multiple times this month on the Fantistics Insider Baseball show, but Joey Gallo simply hasn't been the same player since his oblique injury in June of 2019. Before that you could usually deal with the terrible batting averages because of the elite level power that he provided, especially in OBP-based leagues where his excellent walk rate could mitigate the contact issues. In the midst of the best few months of his career though (278/425/658 through 6/1/19), Gallo injured an oblique and came back with a slightly slower bat. He posted a .268 ISO in 80ish PAs in late June and July of 2019, and he's under .180 in the 104 G since then. I'm not sure whether it's the oblique, the broken hamate bone he suffered in July of 2019, or something else entirely, but Joey Gallo with merely "good" exit velocities (2.0-3.5 mph slower consistently than pre-injury) isn't enough to overcome the deficiencies in his game. He's only 27 so there's obviously every chance for him to turn it around, but I've reached the point where I've seen enough to want to have him be in someone else's risk pool. The walks are still there, so you can make a case (I'm probably still not biting) in leagues that value OBP, but a 25-30 HR version of Joey Gallo doesn't do it for me.
Jameson Taillon (SP - NYY) - Taillon righted the ship a bit on Sunday, throwing 5 shutout innings against the White Sox with 4 K's while allowing 2 hits and 2 walks. The "caution" sign here is just that: it doesn't mean sell or avoid, just that I feel like Taillon has a couple of things going against him that might prevent him from reaching top-50 SP status for the season. First are the combination of high FB rates and high exit velocity allowed...in Yankee Stadium that could be problematic at times. More importantly though, is a graphic I saw with 2 outs in the fifth inning Sunday: Taillon is allowing a .400 AVG and 1.000 SLG the third time through the order. That's probably why you've seen him yanked between 74-84 pitches in 7 of his 9 starts this year. This isn't necessarily a new thing for Taillon (or for the vast majority of SPs): his career ERA the first time through the order is 3.07, the second time is 3.91, and the third time is 5.17. I think the Yankees will use this to limit his innings, as he likely will have some sort of a cap after missing most of the past two seasons. On the whole, I think Taillon has a ton of promise, but I think it'll be tough for him to give you much more than SP5 value here in 2021.....I like him much more in dynasty formats than in redraft leagues.
Willie Calhoun (OF - TEX) - Calhoun hit a bit of a rough patch against the solid pitching staffs of the Yankees and Astros this week, but don't let that sour you on him...he's been making huge strides this year. The Rangers have had him batting leadoff, and he's responded by continuing to exhibit a more patient approach at the plate. His walk rate is up, he's 26th in exit velocity, his LD rate is over 20% for essentially the first time at this level (it was for a few PAs in 2017 as well)...he's really underperforming his xwOBA and xWOBACON thus far (by 19 and 40 points respectively), so I think a lot of his improvement is being masked by the surface stats so far this year. I would absolutely be looking to acquire here: there is well above-average potential in both contact and power, and he's still just 26.
Cesar Hernandez (2B - CLE) - Hernandez was 2-4 with 3 runs, 2 walks, and a double on Sunday in the 8-5 extra-inning loss to Minnesota. After an abysmal start to 2021, Hernandez is hitting 284/348/519 with 12 R thus far in May, looking a lot more like the guy that is a very viable MI option in standard formats and deeper. The speed is just about gone at this point for the 31 year old, at least in terms of SB, but he remains an excellent line-drive hitter with a solid understanding of the strike zone. He's been victimized by a .248 BABIP thus far this year despite a low FB rate, low pull%, and exit velocity that's been the best he's ever posted.....I would absolutely expect that to trend upward. I still have Hernandez ranked as a startable MI in 12-team leagues (top-36 between 2B and SS), although he's certainly in the last 5 names there. Not a ton of upside, but a very solid floor with his contact ability, particularly in OBP-based formats.
Sean Manaea (SP - OAK) - Manaea held the Angels to 1 run on 4 hits over 5 innings on Sunday, walking 2 and fanning 6 in a 6-5 loss. The Boston start aside, Manaea's stuff has ticked up a bit this year and he's missing more bats than ever before, and he's kept last year's control gains to boot. Adding in the partial 2019 and 2020 seasons, Manaea has around a 3.80 xFIP over his last 26 starts, and he seems to be getting a little better instead of moving in the other direction. I think he's pretty clearly a top-60 SP right now, and borderline top-50....easy SP5 for me, especially with that home park.
This is just a small sample our daily analysis, join our member area for over 80 daily player updates sent to your inbox every morning and track your team online. Click here for details: http://www.insiderbaseball.com/baseballsample.htm Click here to register: http://www.fantistics.com/salesbaseball.php3
