Triston McKenzie (SP-CLE) took a perfect game into the 8th inning against Detroit on Sunday and he finished the day with 8 scoreless innings in which he allowed just 1 hit and walked none while piling up 11 strikeouts. The 24 year-old righty tossed 73 of his 106 pitches for strikes in the outing. It was a very encouraging start for McKenzie, who has largely struggled in 2021 after getting some hype in fantasy circles following a strong debut in 2020. But he now owns a 5.12 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 4.9 BB/9 across 84.1 innings of work on the campaign. His 4.73 xFIP indicates that his ERA is not really fluky, for in the luck category a .213 BABIP pretty much offsets a strand rate that comes in at 69%. The biggest issue has been his control, although it's worth noting that entering Sunday's start opposing hitters had recorded hard contact at a 45% clip against him per Statcast. That doesn't mesh well with a 52% flyball rate. On the plus side, McKenzie's swinging-strike rate sits at a solid 12% - so he does miss some bats. He lines up for a turn against the Angels in Cleveland next week and fantasy owners will have to bank on his most recent start pointing to more good things to come.
Eduardo Rodriguez (SP-BOS) earned the W against Baltimore on Sunday as he fired 6 innings in which he allowed 1 unearned run on 3 hits and 3 walks while recording 6 punchouts. Rodriguez fired 55 of his 83 offerings for strikes in the contest. The outing was a strong one for the 28 year-old southpaw, who now claims a 4.97 ERA to go with an 11.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 across 23 starts (116 innings) on the campaign. His 3.32 xFIP indicates that he has run into a lot of bad luck, namely a 67% strand rate, .357 BABIP against, and 14% HR/FB. All of those are career-worst rates while his K/9 and BB/9 are both career bests. Rodriguez's fantasy owners should expect more strong starts out of him down the stretch in 2021. He should take the hill against the Rangers at home next weekend.
Gerrit Cole (SP-NYY) will return from the COVID-19 IL to start against the Angels on Monday. The 30 year-old is in the midst of an excellent 2021 campaign in which he currently owns a 3.11 ERA, 12.2 K/9, and 1.9 BB/9 across 21 starts (130.1 innings of work). His 2.87 xFIP indicates that a 13.5% HR/FB is inflating his ERA a bit, but it's worth noting that his career clip in that department sits at 12% and was 17% and 19% in 2019 and 2020, respectively. By any metric, though, Cole has been a fantasy stud and should continue to be one going forward. His fantasy owners need to get him off their ILs and back in the starting lineup for the coming week.
George Springer (OF-TOR) is day-to-day with a mild ankle sprain after leaving Saturday's contest with the Mariners because of the injury. The issue is an unfortunate one for Springer and his fantasy owners, as he was batting .269 with 16 homers, 35 RBI, and 40 runs scored across 211 plate appearances. The 31 year-old has recorded a solid 43% hard-hit rate per Statcast while logging a 47% flyball rate, the highest of his career. Springer's launch angle is nearly identical to last season's at just under 19, but his average exit velocity is up more than 2mph to 91 in 2021.
MJ Melendez (C-KC) has put together a stellar age-22 season in the high minors. Across 347 Double-A plate appearances to open the campaign, he batted .285 with 28 homers and 65 RBI. Since getting promoted to Triple-A, he's hit .235 with 2 longballs and 3 RBI through just 17 plate appearances. His effort in Double-A was impressive, as he showed command of the plate with a 12% walk rate and 22% strikeout rate en route to amassing a wRC+ of 157. The output to some degree defies his prospect grades, as scouts put his hit tool at well below average and his power as plus. And although it's not directly relevant to fantasy, his work behind the dish grades overall as below average; this could, of course, affect his potential MLB playing time. Yet, despite sitting outside of the top 10 in the Royals system, Melendez has produced before - as a 19 year-old in A-ball back in 2018, he hit .251 with 19 dingers and 73 RBI across 472 plate appearances; he did fan at a 30% clip that season. Ultimately, Melendez seems unlikely to be fantasy relevant in 2021, as he's blocked from significant playing time in Kansas City by Salvador Perez, who is putting together his best MLB season. And then there is concern that, initially, at least, Melendez will fan too much in the majors. Leave him on the waiver wire but keep an eye on him going forward.
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