Cody Bellinger (OF - CUB) - Bellinger extended his hitting streak to 7 games on Monday in style, tallying 4 singles and a double in the Cubs 10-1 victory in Oakland. Here's how you know it's still early: Bellinger's slash line went from 245/317/453 to 310/369/517 in the contest. So, is he back? It's certainly encouraging that the first 3 hits came against lefty Kyle Muller, and his swinging strike rate and chase rate are down considerably (the latter at a career best by far). The exit velo is way down though, the pull% is way up, and the barrel rate and hard hit rate would be career worsts. It's certainly a mixed bag, but on the whole I'm skeptical. We often see players that aren't playing at 100% confidence retreat into "contact mode". It's something that happens a lot more to younger players, but with Bellinger putting up nothing of note offensively since 2019, he has to be feeling some pressure to get his career back on the right track. The excellent contact rate to this point shows me that there is still talent in there, and he's just 27. I'd be leaning toward selling high on him to be perfectly honest, but it's close...he's still plenty young, and the level of ability he showed in 2017-19 doesn't just disappear very often for a player in their mid-20's.
Logan Webb (SP - SF) - Webb finally got a matchup against a below-average offense in start #4, and promptly allowed 4 runs on 8 hits to the Marlins over 6 2/3 innings, striking out 6 without walking a man. Webb drops to 0-4 on the season in advance of a home start against the Mets this weekend, and it's definitely worth taking a deeper look to see how much concern we should have here. Webb's walk rate to this point is barely over 1, his velocity is intact, and he's missing bats at a higher rate than his normal "above average" level. The GB rate is a diminished but still healthy 51% (prior to Monday's outing, but that should only increase from what I saw), but the exit velocity is now slightly above average and the hard hit rate is nearly 50%. The biggest thing is the HR/FB rate of 30.8%, a number that won't drop much after Jorge Soler's eventual game-winner against Webb in the 7th. After 3 straight seasons allowing between 0.51 and 0.66 HR/9, Webb is allowing 1.9 through his first 4 starts. I feel comfortable saying that won't continue for numerous reasons, not the least of which is that he's only had one start in the friendly confines of Oracle Park thus far this year. It's always a dangerous game to say what a pitcher could accomplish if you take away one pitch per game, but in Webb's case it would roughly cut his ERA in half right now. There is so much to like in his performance so far with the stellar walk rate and increased K rate, and I feel like he will get a handle on the gopher ball problem before too long.....there's ample evidence that he is eminently capable of that. I would absolutely consider him a buy-low candidate right now.
Jack Flaherty (SP - STL) - Flaherty cruised through much of Monday's game against the Cardinals, but he ran into trouble in the 7th that Andre Pallante ended up compounding for him, and the end result was a 6 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K performance that tagged him with his 2nd loss of the year. Flaherty's GB rate is up significantly so far this year, but his struggles to find the strike zone have persisted from his abbreviated 2022 (17 BB in 21 1/3 IP thus far). Exacerbating that issue is the continuing decline in his velocity, chase rate, and swinging strike rate. The velo drop isn't huge although it has been steady for a few years now, and the chase rate has dropped 8% over the past 4 years while the swinging strike rate is off 4%. These are pretty sizable declines, and Monday's 4 swinging strikes over 90 pitches aren't going to make that number look any better. I don't think anyone was drafting Flaherty looking for a high-end #2 like they were a few years ago, but I do think that people were looking for upside here, and the lack of K's is worrisome from that perspective. There is certainly still a solid chance that Flaherty can return fair value for his end-of-spring SP59 ADP, but it's no sure thing with the huge walk rate combined with the decline in K's.
Andrew McCutchen (OF - PIT) - Cutch singled and homered in the 14-3 thrashing of the Rockies on Monday, and he's now hitting 302/418/528 in the middle of the Pirate lineup. After teetering on the edge of fantasy relevance the past few years, the long-time Pirate is showing improvement in every facet of his game upon his return to Pittsburgh. The chase rate is back to around 20%, the swinging strike rate has dropped into the mid-8's again, and the exit velo would be his best of the Statcast era and well above average. He's even stealing bases again! It's easy to write a narrative here for the 36 year old, but I do think we sometimes have a tendency to treat players as if they were robots. We often talk about how some players "aren't cut out" to play in some of the intense places like NY and Boston, but if that's true why wouldn't other places be comfortable fits for certain players? Every interview I've seen with him this year suggests that he's thrilled to be back, thrilled to have his family settled in a city that he loves....that has to carry over to play, right? He looks comfortable, he's playing comfortable, and I'm perfectly happy giving him a little bit of an upgrade from my pre-season assessment. I believe him to be capable of being a top-60 OF once again, and I honestly hope that I never see him play another game for a different team.
Juan Soto (OF - SD) - Soto extended his current slump to 0-15 on Monday, although (of course) he has walked 6 times in that 5 game stretch. There are a couple of issues here to address. First and foremost, let me say that I'm not really worried about Soto. I think he's one of the best few players in baseball, and that he'll likely be fine going forward. The batted ball data isn't bad, just not up to his pre-2022 standards, and while the swinging strike rate is up a touch it's still far better than average. Issue #1, which could be an actual problem, is that his swing% continues to drop. Yes, he's being pitched around plenty: his zone% remains under 40%, but it's been even lower before and he produced just fine. His swing% is just 34.5% (lowest I've seen to my knowledge), but the bigger issue is that he's letting far too many of the occasional strikes that he sees go by. His in-zone swing% has gone from 62.8% in 2021, to 59.1% last year, to a stunningly low 53.9% so far this year. Combined with a slightly elevated chase rate, it definitely suggests that he isn't seeing the ball as well as he is accustomed to. Issue #2, and the primary reason that I'm not ALL that concerned, is his Statcast data. Even as poorly as he has played, his xAVG is .264 and his xSLG is .546. I dare say we would all be happy with that from Soto, as it would almost certainly come along with an OBP north of .400. As tired of I am of seeing him take called strike after called strike, I have to assume that will remedy itself as we move through the year: he's only 24 after all, and unless there's some health issue that we don't know about, there's no reason to expect a player with his fantastic strike zone judgment to suddenly not be able to tell a ball from a strike. When the luck stats start to move his way, and from that supremely depressed level they will, this cold start should shortly become just a vague, unhappy memory. Certainly worth inquiring with his owner, I would think.....some people are way more fed up quickly than others.
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