Zach Eflin (SP-TB) dazzled against Pittsburgh on Thursday, blanking the Pirates over 7 IP in which he scattered 3 hits and issued no free passes while racking up 10 strikeouts. The 29 year-old righty threw 59 of his 90 offerings for strikes in the outing. Eflin may very well be the latest Rays pitching renovation project, as he now owns a sparkling 2.25 ERA, 10 K/9, 1 BB/9, and 2.77 xFIP across his first 28 IP (5 starts) of the 2023 campaign. Eflin was a fantasy contributor in stretches in his days as a Phillie, but his K/9 was rarely useful and so his value hinged on whether his strong control (2.2 career BB/9) could limit the damage that came with a league-average contact rate (81% career). But now the Rays have - shockingly! (/sarcasm) - seemed to unlock something that has elevated his swinging-strike rate to a career-best 12% while he's gotten opposing hitters to chase at a career-high 40% clip while posting a career-low 76% contact rate. One of the keys appears to be his cutter usage, which is up to a career-high 31% (previous high was just 14% last season) while he's also deploying his curve a career-high 26% of the time as well. He lines up for a test in Baltimore next week, but at this point one has to just run him out there based on the early returns.
Vince Velasquez (SP-PIT) exited Thursday's start against the Rays after just 3 IP because of right (throwing) elbow discomfort. The 30 year-old righty completed just 3 IP in which he allowed 1 run on 2 hits and a walk while fanning a pair. It's not a good sign that Velasquez was seen clutching at his elbow while his velocity dipped in the 3rd inning before he was replaced the next inning. A once-promising prospect for the Astros who fizzled with the Phillies before logging a 4.78 ERA across 75.1 IP with the White Sox last season - mostly in a relief role - Velasquez has seemingly turned things around and has become something of a fantasy commodity with the Buccos... or has he? A 3.06 ERA through his first 35.1 IP (7 starts) is nice, but beyond that there's little to get excited about, as his K/9 is 8.7, his BB/9 is 3.3, and his xFIP of 4.57 points to a .250 BABIP (.305 career), 82% strand rate (72% career), and 9% HR/FB (14% career) suppressing his ERA. The positive signs include a significantly reduced hard-hit rate (34% per Statcast in 2023, 38% career) and a slightly higher swinging-strike rate (12% in 2023, 11% career), but it largely looks like the same old Velasquez, but with a good bit of luck. And now there's the cloud of elbow discomfort that has to clear before there's further talk of fantasy relevance. If - and it's a big if - he's able to make his next start, it's not an unfavorable one as he lines up to face the Rockies in Pittsburgh early next week. But stay tuned.
Jason Adam (RP-TB) earned the save against the Pirates on Thursday, albeit in a rocky outing (1 IP, 2 R (0 earned), 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K). The 31 year-old righty now owns a 1.46 ERA, 3.38 xFIP, 11.7 K/9, and 3.7 BB/9 across 12.1 IP on the year. The save was his second in the last few days as he's stepped in for Pete Fairbanks, who is sidelined with right (throwing) forearm inflammation. Adam has swing-and-miss stuff (13% swinging-strike rate), but his average fastball velocity is down to under 94 mph after it sat just north of 95 mph last season and his control has also been off (BB/9 was 2.4 last year). Overall, though, the club clearly has confidence in him to get the job done, and he has so far. And there is a track record here, as he was stellar last season (1.56 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, and 3.17 xFIP as he earned 8 saves and 21 holds in 63.1 IP). He's currently available in over 86% of ESPN leagues if you need saves.
Michael Harris II (OF-ATL) did not start against the Marlins on Thursday after jamming his right knee on Wednesday and exiting the game; he was reportedly available off the bench, though. The 22 year-old OF will, however, reportedly not end up on the IL as his removal from Wednesday's game was described as precautionary in nature. That's great news for fantasy owners, as Harris only returned from the IL after recovering from a back injury less than a week ago and showed signs of breaking out of his early-season funk by going 2-4 with a 2-run homer in Wednesday's contest. Harris has logged only 42 PA to open the season, but his hitting .237 with that one homer, 3 RBI, 7 runs scored, and 2 steals. The good news is that (in that small sample size) he's trimmed his strikeout rate to 19% from last year's 24% while drawing more walks (up to almost 10% from under 5%). The hard contact is also up to 57% per Statcast (was already a healthy 45% last season) while he's ticked his contact rate upward slightly to just over 74% (was under 74% last year) and chased fewer pitches outside the zone (o-swing% is down to under 39% from last year's 42%). It's a very small sample size, but a number of metrics point to growth despite the statistical production not being there - yet.
Bailey Ober (SP-MIN) might be a sneaky DFS or streaming option against Cleveland on Friday. The 27 year-old righty has been very good in Triple-A so far this season (2.55 ERA, 11.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 4.16 xFIP in 17.2 IP) but has posted a 1.59 ERA despite logging a 8 K/9, 4 BB/9, and 5.31 xFIP across 11.1 IP in the majors. However, he's allowed very little hard contact (28% per Statcast) in his two MLB starts this season while allowing contact at a below-average 77% clip. More encouragingly, Ober was productive across 11 big-league starts last season, recording a 3.21 ERA, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9, and 4.18 xFIP across 56 IP. But this call is even more about his opponent, as the Guardians rank #28 in baseball in team OPS so far this season (.648), with an even worse team OPS at home (.636), which is where Ober will face them on Friday. He's currently available in about 94% of ESPN leagues.
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