Blake Snell-Padres-SP
Blake Snell went 6 IP and gave up 2 ER on 3 H, 2 BB, and 10 K's against the Pirates. Snell has been brilliant since the beginning of May. He has a 2.33 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 24% K:BB over that time period. He has dropped his season line to a 3.21 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 5-2 record. Snell misses bats at an elite rate (31% K) and sometimes struggles with control (12% BB). He has struggled at times with what his ideal pitch mix should be. This year he has gone back to making the changeup a true part of his arsenal (17% Usage). This has given him a true four-pitch mix which helps keep hitters off balance. Snell is rolling and can be started with confidence.
Mitch Keller-Pirates-SP
Mitch Keller went 6 IP and gave up 1 ER on 4 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Padres. Keller is in the midst of a breakout season with a 3.34 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. His underlying skills look great with 28% K, 6% BB, and 47% GB. The concern is that his strikeout rate looks to be inflated considering his swinging strike rate (9%) and CSW (29%) are below-average and would normally suggest a much lower strikeout rate which would put him closer to a year ago (3.91 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 20% K). The good news is that he has made enough improvements across the board that he is still projected to be an above-average starter (3.43 SIERA). He gets a two-start week next week albeit with tough matchups against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks.
Logan Gilbert-Mariners-SP
Logan Gilbert went 6 IP and gave up 4 ER on 8 H, 2 BB, and 4 K's against the Nationals. Gilbert has a 4.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across 92.1 IP. He has been unfortunate (3.59 SIERA) due to a low LOB% (65%). His core skills are very good (26% K and 5% BB). He is showing excellent strikeout to walk skills (21% K:BB) which is a predictor of future success. It doesn't hurt that his home park is pitcher-friendly as well. The addition of a split-finger this year has done wonders for his success and ability to miss bats. The future looks bright for Gilbert in terms of his career track and positive regression the rest of the way this year.
Cristian Javier-Astros-SP
Cristian Javier went 4 IP and gave up 6 ER on 8 H, 1 BB, and 1 K against the Cardinals. Javier had been pitching well this year (3.25 ERA and 1.12 WHIP) but has done so without matching his skills from a year ago (23% K and 7% BB). A year ago he had an elite strikeout rate (33% K) that was backed by an elite swinging strike rate (14% Swstr). He has seen a reduction in his strikeout rate and swinging strike rate this year which is why his 4.48 SIERA suggests that he is nowhere close to the pitcher that he was during his breakout season. His fastball is down over 1 mph and as a result, its effectiveness has not been the same. Javier made a living of his fastball/slider combo being elite and this year they are just okay which means that despite the strong ratios regression was coming. He is still a must-start across the board but there are reasons to be concerned outside of today's poor start.
Gunnar Henderson-Orioles-3B
Gunnar Henderson was 1-3 with 3 RBI against the Reds. Henderson has turned his season around in the month of June (.343 AVG with 6 HR, 10 R, 13 RBI, and 3 SB). On the year, he is hitting .244 with 11 HR, 38 R, 30 RBI, and 5 SB. Henderson has demonstrated the ability to hit the ball hard (13% Barrels, 50% Hardhit, and 113.8 mph maxEV). He has also struggled at times to make contact (30% K) which is somewhat puzzling considering he has a good sense of the strike zone (13% BB and 25% O-swing). There is some concern when looking underneath the hood because he has below-average zone contact% and contact% in addition to swing%. Henderson doesn't swing enough and has trouble making contact when he does swing. It is a small sample and he is still young so there is time for him to make improvements but expecting him to hit for a high average isn't going to happen at this point in his career.
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