Sandy Alcantara (SP - MIA) - Alcantara had one bad inning once again in Wednesday's start, allowing 5 runs on 6 hits in the 2nd but tossing up zeroes in the other 6 innings he pitched during the 6-3 loss to Toronto. It's very tempting to try and find something glaringly wrong here, or to say that he's injured, or......something. Anything. From what I can tell though, this is one part regression from two years of outperformance of his peripherals and two parts bad luck. His 60.5% strand rate is the third lowest among qualified pitchers (min. 50 IP) this season, and his swinging strike rate and chase rate are very reminiscent of the past two seasons. The stuff looks intact, aside from his changeup which is merely average this season. Everyone, from Marlin management through his catchers and opponents to Alcantara himself, say that he looks the same and they really don't know what's different. It's possible that the pitch clock is hurting him with men on base. It's likely that he was a touch overrated (but very likely still should have been a preseason top-10 SP) Still, I want to hold here, or buy low when possible. The biggest issue is that the schedule remains very difficult for about another month, with the Red Sox in Boston, the Braves in Atlanta, and the Phillies in Miami on tap before the break. That's the top 2 offenses in baseball over the past week (and top-7 on the season) along with a top-half offense in the Phillies. I get it if you don't want to hold on, but I'm sticking with him. An ERA right around or below 3.00 in the second half is my expectation.
Jake Fraley (OF - CIN) - Fraley hasn't missed a beat despite a 10-day IL stint for a muscle tear in his wrist (a cortisone injection can take care of that? Crazy), homering again late in the game on Wednesday to give the Reds their 11th win in a row. Fraley is 12-32 with 4 HR and 5 SB in just 10 G this month, and is hitting over .300 and slugging over .500 against RHP (which is all he should play against with the current loaded state of the Reds roster). I know folks will look at the average exit velo and suggest that there isn't much power here, but the max exit velo is better than average so there's 55 to 60 grade raw power, he just makes lots of poor contact (soft% of 23.3). He's sort of average in terms of contact ability with plus power and speed in a great offense....sign me up for that all day long. In leagues with daily transactional ability, Fraley is a must-have because you can keep him away from LHP. In weekly leagues it's a bit trickier, but he's still a worthwhile bat.
Andrew Abbott (SP - CIN) - Abbott finally allowed a run in his 4th start, allowing 3 solo homers over 6 innings to the Rockies, but they only managed a single against him besides that and he fanned 10 in another solid outing. He has had a very favorable schedule thus far, getting the struggling Brewers, the Astros without their best hitter, and the road Rockies along with a start in St. Louis where he scattered 8 baserunners in 5 2/3 along with a 96+ exit velo allowed. A trip to Camden should be a bit stiffer of a test (but Camden plays friendly to southpaws anymore), but then he gets Washington and Milwaukee again, both also on the road. I do believe that he will have his struggles both at home and against tougher opponents, but with that upcoming schedule he should provide very good value heading into the break. A 10-day homestand along with trips to LA and Wrigley coming out of the break will be difficult, and I wouldn't mind taking the break to shop him a bit if you have other needs. The control is spotty and he allows a ton of hard contact, but the K rates have always been good even if he wasn't getting a lot of swinging strikes in his first three outings for Cincy (he did get 17 in just 88 pitches Wednesday though). I like him, but feel the ceiling is that of a mid-rotation starter, and his stats going to the ASB could be really enticing for anyone that needs pitching.
Cristian Javier (SP - HOU) - Some mild caution here, but after a very solid first few months of the year Javier's June struggles continued on Wednesday, as he took 82 pitches to get through just 2 1/3 innings in a 10-8 victory over the Mets. He's walked 8 against 5 K's in his last three outings, allowing 8 runs as well in just 13 1/3 innings. The velocity has been down all year from last season, and he allows so many flyballs with a exit velocity that is only a touch better than average. He's missing a lot fewer bats than last year as well, so while last year his xFIP was 3.53, his SIERA was 3.14, and his xERA was 2.43 (to go along with an actual ERA of 2.54), those figures were 4.51, 4.25, and 4.03 respectively BEFORE the terrible start Wednesday. I feel pretty good about where I had him rated pre-season still (very near the top of my SP4's), but I have some mild concern about his arm health with the recent control issues and the continuing velocity drop from last year. I'm still a "sell-high" believer here.
Josh Naylor (1B - CLE) - Naylor is celebrating his 26th birthday a day early, as he collected his 2nd 4-hit game in 3 days on Wednesday against the A's. There are a lot of positives here, as he has increased his exit velo and launch angle this season without sacrificing much in the way of his solid contact ability. The biggest issue here is his strike zone judgment: his chase rate is back above 40% and keeps his overall contact rate just barely better than average, but on the whole he is definitely continuing to develop as a hitter. In fact, his xAVG and xSLG (304/509) are that of an impact bat, and that's after a miserable April. I like him, even just as a 1B, (which is likely at this point for 2024) and see him as mixed league worthy for certain.
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