Zach Eflin-Rays-SP
Zach Eflin went 5 IP and gave up 2 ER on 4 H, 0 BB, and 5 K's against the Braves. Eflin has a 3.25 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 102.1 IP. He has been everything and more for the Rays this year. He is missing bats (26% K) with an elite walk rate (4% BB). The increase in strikeouts is backed up by the rise in his swinging strike rate (11% SwStr) and called strikes plus whiffs (31% CSW). This is due to a change in his pitch mix where he has lowered his fastball usage (-18%) in favor of more cutters (+13%) and more curveballs (+9%). The Rays know what they are doing when they bring in a free-agent starter and this is another example. Eflin has a lengthy injury history so the hope is that he can stay healthy and continue to post a career season for one of the best teams in baseball.
Jack Suwinski-Pirates-OF
Jack Suwinski was 0-3 with an RBI against the Diamondbacks. Suwinski came into the game hitting .333 with 4 HR, 10 R, 12 RBI, and 1 SB over the past 14 days. On the year, he is hitting .235 with 19 HR, 40 R, 48 RBI, and 7 SB. He has a good sense of the zone (16% BB and 19% O-swing) but has trouble making contact (32% K and 77% Z-contact). He is able to succeed because when he does make contact he hits the ball hard (19% Barrels, 51% Hardhit, and 114.7 mph maxEV). It is a unique skills profile but from a fantasy perspective, he should hit 30+ HR's with 10+ SB's with a lower average. There is also an upside in his profile if he can figure out a way to be a little bit more aggressive in the zone.
Tarik Skubal-Tigers-SP
Tarik Skubal went 4 IP and gave up 0 ER on 2 H, 2 BB, and 5 K's against the Blue Jays. This was SKubal's second start since coming back from injury. He has looked explosive armed with a 96+ mph fastball in addition to his slider and changeup. The increase in velocity is a welcome sight and gives hope that he can miss bats like he did in the minors where he was 30%+ strikeouts with good walk rates. Skubal is already coming off a strong 2022 season (3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 26% K, and 7% BB) but a small increase in strikeouts will take him into elite territory. Now is the time to move on Skubal if you have not already.
Bryce Elder-Braves-SP
Bryce Elder went 3.1 IP and gave up 7 ER on 6 H, 4 BB, and 0 K's against the Rays. Elder came into the game with a 2.45 ERA and 1.14 WHIP through 102.2 IP. He left with a 2.97 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. He is one of the more interesting test cases because his skills (19% K, 7% BB, and 4.23 SIERA) suggest that major regression is going to hit as it did today. He hadn't been overly lucky (.271 BABIP and 84% LOB) despite having below-average velocity (89.8 mph) and strikeouts (19% K). This is a profile that you would traditionally stay away from in fantasy. However, he is on a roll despite today's blowup and pitches for the best team in the majors so there is no way to bench him. It is also important to keep a close eye on him because when things go south you don't want to be caught holding the bag for too long.
Shane Bieber-Guardians-SP
Shane Bieber went 6.1 IP and gave up 4 ER on 9 H, 0 BB, and 6 K's against the Royals. Bieber has a 3.77 ERA and 1.25 WHIP across 117 IP. He has started to regress toward his declining skills (4.44 SIERA). Bieber has struggled to miss bats (19% K) and has not been as sharp with his control (7% BB). His swinging strike rate has dropped (11%) which is likely to result of declining stuff. The shift to more cutters (27%) is another sign that he trying to combat the loss of stuff. Bieber is still an above-average starter in terms of ratios but the underlying skills do not look good and trending in the wrong direction. Bieber is a sell high candidate which the Guardians might do themselves before the trade deadline.
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