Max Scherzer (SP - TEX) - Scherzer was dealt to the Rangers on Saturday for AA SS Luisangel Acuna and cash. At first glance, I don't love this for Scherzer's value. Yes, the 39 year old may be happier in the middle of a pennant race rather than floundering around on a $300+ million roster. Scherzer's splits this season have me worried though. The stuff is pretty clearly not what it once was, as the swinging strike rate has declined by almost 3% and the HRs have been a persistent, serious issue. Citi Field mitigated a lot of that for him though, as evidenced by the 2.18 home ERA (and a HR every 10 IP or so). On the road, Scherzer has posted an ERA of 5.16, allowing a HR every 3 1/2 innings. It isn't set in stone as to where and when he'll make his Texas debut, but if he stays on schedule 3 of his first 4 starts for Texas will be at home. It could be a worse group than CWS, LAA, and MIL, but he's already allowed 4 HR to MIL this year in just 11 1/3 IP, and the Angels obviously have some power as well. On the whole I'm not a fan of this move for Scherzer's value...I'm probably treating him like a #3 in 12-team leagues moving forward. If you can sell someone on his sub-3.00 ERA and a K per inning 2nd half performance to this point, it's a risk that I'd likely take, even if his velo has been back up a touch in July thus far.
Jarren Duran (OF - BOS) - Duran continues to hit here in July, going 2-4 with his 30th double of the season in the 3-2 loss to SF. He's hitting 388/514/672 on the month and giving you just about everything that you could hope for offensively. Sure, the over the fence power hasn't been there to a large extent just yet, mostly due to the rather low pull%, but the fact that he has 30 doubles in just 83 games makes me think that there's certainly 20-HR power in there at the very least, and there's clearly 30-SB speed. The fact that all of this production has come with a swinging strike rate slightly below league average is fantastic, and gives me confidence that he is here to stay as a well above-average option in the OF.
Bailey Ober (SP - MIN) - Ober was knocked around by the Royals on Saturday, allowing 11 hits and 6 runs in just 4 innings of work in a 10-7 loss. He had a number of streaks snapped during the rough outing, including 7 straight QS and 10 straight starts allowing 3 ER or fewer. In fact, Saturday was only the 2nd start in 17 that he allowed more than 3 ER, but there are definitely some reasons to be cautious here. xFIP isn't everything, but before this outing his 4.32 mark showed a sizable likelihood for regression from his 2.76 ERA. His excellent control and above-average chase and swinging strike rates are certainly marks in his favor, but he's merely around average in terms of limiting hard contact, and the massive FB rates would lead you to believe that HRs would be a problem for him (they haven't been). The strand rate of over 80% is likely to regress, and the .258 BABIP is probably a bit low even with the amount of FB that he allows. All told, I think that his ERA is probably a run lighter than his skill set should typically offer, so he's certainly someone that I'd be shopping around this weekend before the deadline. On the plus side for him, the upcoming schedule isn't difficult at all (ARI, @DET, DET, @MIL).
Riley Greene (OF - DET) - Greene homered (8) in the 5-0 win over Miami on Saturday, continuing a hot streak that saw him at 356/415/508 since his return from injury early in the month. I feel like the missing 6 weeks may keep him under the radar a bit, but make no mistake: Greene looks like a star in the making, hitting over .300 with close to a 20/15 pace over 150 G. There's a bit of swing and miss here, but it's hard to find anything to complain about otherwise...I expect top-20 OF performance from him for many years to come.
Marco Luciano (SS - SF) - The Giants called up Marco Luciano this week after the 21 year old hit 2 homers in 6 games at AAA, and he's managed to go 3-9 with a 2B in his first 3 games....along with 4 strikeouts. That's going to be the real issue here. Strikeout rates don't tend to get better as players move to tougher levels, and Luciano was already striking out at an above average clip at AA. There also isn't much speed here, making him potentially a power-only bat in a park that suppresses power. Not ideal. He may be worth a flyer in deeper leagues just for the power upside, but the bar is pretty high at SS anymore, and I just think the floor here is incredibly low.
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